In a world increasingly shaped by demographic changes, the insights of experts like Dr. Paul Morland are more crucial than ever. In the latest episode of the Triggernometry YouTube channel, Dr. Morland delves into the pressing issue of population collapse—a phenomenon that poses significant challenges to societies globally. Through his expertise on demographic trends, he sheds light on how declining birth rates and aging populations could reshape economies, cultures, and social systems. In this blog post, we will fact-check the key claims made in Dr. Morland’s discussion, separating data-driven insights from speculation. Join us as we explore the implications of population dynamics and what it means for our future.
Find a fact check of this transcript on CheckForFacts
Transcript:
[00:00:00,639]: We got more deaths than births in the UK fought the first time last year [00:00:05,719]: The fact that you’ve gone from seven eight nine workers per retiree when Japan was thriving to one to one and in Britain we’re moving rapidly from three workers to every retiree to two [00:00:18,559]: It’s falling dramatically low as low as two thirds of a child per couple in Korea which means 100 grandparents 33 parents 11 children [00:00:29,319]: So I think this is a completely unprecedented scenario [00:00:33,080]: I think we are entering uncharted waters and I’m quite concerned [00:00:37,040]: There is going to be a competition for the young and well educated [00:00:40,880]: This is a ticking time bomb isn’t it [00:00:44,799]: Dr Paul Morland welcome to Trigonometry [00:00:46,880]: Thank you very much [00:00:47,819]: You are of course a demographer and your latest book is called No One Left Why the World Needs More Children [00:00:52,799]: We want to talk about demographics with you [00:00:55,380]: It’s an area of expertise something you’ve been talking about extensively [00:00:58,799]: So first and foremost it’s an issue that has come to the fore in public conversation even though it’s kind of a fringe issue still to many people [00:01:07,720]: But why is it a significant thing and what is going on with demographics particularly in the Western world and perhaps also beyond [00:01:15,199]: It’s a significant thing because people matter [00:01:17,800]: Whether you’re looking at economics you’re looking at history you’re looking at current affairs what’s going on in the news flows of refugees working age populations unemployment [00:01:28,199]: It’s all very much driven by the size of population the growth or shrinkage where they’re moving to or where they’re moving from [00:01:34,360]: And I’ve kind of made it a bit of a mission of mine quite apart from the pronatalism which we’ll come on to to try and help explain the past the present and the future in terms of what was going on in terms of population [00:01:45,720]: And then how did that affect the way things turned out [00:01:48,540]: So for example my second book which is about the history of population change [00:01:54,339]: I look at a whole range of things from the Louisiana Purchase and the Americans moving across the whole continent to the origins and the outcome of the First World War to the end of the Japanese economic experiment [00:02:06,260]: That’s the human tide [00:02:07,300]: And I show how in each of these in many events of history which are well known to people there was the hidden hand of demography not the only thing that was going on but you can’t really understand the event unless you get the demographic dimension [00:02:21,539]: And then the next book after that my third book Tomorrow’s People was really to say well if that’s true of the past if population change has driven the past it must be changing the present and the future [00:02:32,380]: What’s going on in the world today [00:02:33,759]: What is it that we see happening in current affairs in the news [00:02:36,580]: And what’s the future going to look like when we understand how population is developing [00:02:42,199]: So you then ask me what’s actually going on now [00:02:47,320]: I take a very global look [00:02:49,419]: The answer is you go through a demographic transition [00:02:52,179]: I mean very crudely poor countries which was the whole world before 1800 lots of kids not always maximum [00:02:59,539]: Some people were taken out of the marriage market for various reasons [00:03:03,139]: Marriage was delayed [00:03:03,779]: So there were various social mechanisms for controlling fertility [00:03:06,559]: But broadly women had lots and lots of children [00:03:08,940]: They couldn’t control their fertility very effectively [00:03:10,759]: People died young [00:03:12,660]: Lots of children died in their first year [00:03:14,839]: And so I mean if you’d had a population with six children which was pretty normal and they hadn’t all died off if you’d tripled every generation I calculated that by the beginning of the fourth or fifth century I can’t remember which with a quarter of a billion people at the era of Julius Caesar by 400 or 500 you’d have had one meter per person standing meter in the world [00:03:36,320]: The reason that didn’t happen was not because people weren’t having large families six at least but because there was this was Malthus as well this endless downward pressure on population growth of people dying [00:03:47,119]: And if the war didn’t get them and disease didn’t get them eventually the planet couldn’t possibly have fed that many people [00:03:52,720]: And the planet’s ability to feed people grows very very slowly [00:03:55,539]: So it takes from Caesar to Queen Victoria for the world’s population to quadruple [00:03:59,759]: And that was the old regime [00:04:01,460]: Then you have this incredible demographic transition [00:04:04,080]: It’s a long story [00:04:04,940]: I won’t go into it in detail [00:04:05,820]: But essentially first of all your mortality rate falls [00:04:08,880]: You’re still having loads of kids [00:04:10,139]: They’re not all dying off [00:04:11,360]: People are living longer [00:04:12,580]: Population explodes [00:04:13,619]: And then eventually fertility rates go down [00:04:15,679]: And that happens first in the British Isles in North America and then it spreads [00:04:19,720]: So parts of the world today are still in that demographic transition [00:04:23,079]: You’ll see in countries in Africa still have very high fertility rates [00:04:26,000]: They’re really bringing their mortality rates down even though they’re still quite poor [00:04:29,540]: They’re having population explosion [00:04:31,440]: More and more of the world is moving into that point where they have low death rates long life expectancies very low for mortality but very few children [00:04:40,019]: But instead of the thing settling at about two kids which would lead to a stable population it’s falling dramatically low as low as two thirds of a child per couple in Korea which means 100 grandparents 33 parents 11 children [00:04:56,220]: So my fourth book the most recent one is really saying why is this happening [00:05:01,200]: What can we do [00:05:01,839]: But I think just the fact that people know more about it that people become more aware of this incredible demographic vortex that we’re facing is worthwhile [00:05:11,160]: So that’s kind of the progression of my thinking and my writing on demography [00:05:15,260]: So the inevitable question look I think there are lots of people who are interested in addressing this and trying to solve it in some way for the reasons that we’ll discuss given the consequences of it [00:05:28,100]: But in order to solve something you do need to understand why it’s happening [00:05:32,220]: And I have not heard and this is why you’re here anybody where I’ve gone okay this person’s got it [00:05:38,880]: They’ve described the entire set of the causal reasons [00:05:43,399]: So why are we having fewer children [00:05:46,920]: Why are we below replacement [00:05:48,440]: You’d really want it to be a simple answer [00:05:52,500]: You’d want someone to say aha I’ve got the answer [00:05:55,920]: But unfortunately it’s not that simple [00:05:57,899]: Because it’s so general because we’re seeing it in Jamaica and Japan Thailand and Taiwan and Finland because it’s so general almost becoming universal outside sub Saharan Africa and a few countries in Asia [00:06:12,959]: People think there must be a single cause and therefore it must be simple [00:06:17,440]: Actually probably if you had a God’s eye view or a much cleverer demographer than me maybe who will exist in the future they could crack it [00:06:26,959]: But the best that we can do today is to say it’s multi causal and you can group those causes into two buckets the material and the cultural [00:06:35,279]: So let’s start with the material [00:06:36,600]: So we know in Britain for example housing is very expensive [00:06:40,739]: The trouble with that as a universal explanation is where housing is cheap [00:06:43,980]: Some cities in China are built lots of flats [00:06:47,440]: Parts of the UK have relatively cheap housing parts of Germany parts of the Balkans [00:06:52,000]: I don’t think the whole of Russia and Ukraine has expensive housing but they all have low fertility [00:06:56,660]: So that doesn’t mean it’s not causing low fertility in parts of the UK and lots of the rest of the world [00:07:01,500]: But if you lifted that as a cause if everybody could get cheap housing it wouldn’t solve it [00:07:06,279]: Housing is part of expensive childcare [00:07:09,140]: But again if you look at parts of the world where childcare is very very subsidised fertility rates are still very low [00:07:15,640]: Parts of the Baltics parts of Germany if you can get the childcare it’s very subsidised [00:07:19,760]: So again I’m not dismissing I’ve got children of my own who are having children of their own [00:07:23,519]: I’m not dismissing the cost of childcare as important but it’s a cause [00:07:29,459]: But if you get rid of that cause there are other things depressing fertility rates [00:07:33,079]: So I always say that material factors are important but they won’t solve it by themselves [00:07:39,420]: So what’s the other thing that’s going on [00:07:41,019]: The other thing that’s going on is cultural [00:07:43,920]: And culture is much more difficult to put your finger on [00:07:47,679]: There seems to be something about modernity which is depressing fertility rates [00:07:52,959]: There are a whole range of explanations [00:07:54,839]: There’s something to do clearly with women’s aspirations and education [00:07:58,040]: And I always say you know I welcome women’s education and aspirations [00:08:01,480]: My mother was the prime earner when I was a child [00:08:05,079]: My wife has earned more than me [00:08:06,880]: My daughters have both got as good education as my son and they’re leading their careers [00:08:11,059]: I don’t want that to change but we need to find a way to reconcile that with producing a demographic future for ourselves [00:08:19,880]: So there’s something about women’s rights and feminism and education but I don’t want to get rid of that [00:08:26,440]: We can’t get rid of that [00:08:27,480]: And if the problem is too few people in the workforce it wouldn’t help if we did [00:08:30,619]: So we’ve got to find a way and I think younger better minds than mine will come up with those sorts of solutions [00:08:36,260]: How can we have a 2030s feminism that’s not like the 1950s but that combines women fully self actualising and having children [00:08:45,440]: So there’s something about women something about relationships [00:08:48,960]: People are having less sex [00:08:50,280]: People are getting married later [00:08:52,359]: People are coupling up later and less [00:08:54,000]: There seems to be a political divergence between men and women [00:08:56,960]: That could be part of the picture as well [00:08:59,859]: I think at root though there is a lack of a pronatal culture [00:09:05,020]: So all these things will exist [00:09:07,059]: We will have feminism [00:09:08,080]: We will have women’s education and we may have something of a breakdown of relationships and a load of other cultural effects and a decline of religion [00:09:15,219]: But ultimately if we have a really pronatal culture if we had a culture and a civilisation which really valued having children where that was really high status where that was something people really aspired to it would overcome all those issues [00:09:30,659]: And the example I always give is Israel where they are extremely wealthy extremely densely populated extremely urban extremely educated [00:09:40,080]: Women’s rights are by far the best in the Middle 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