In an era marked by rapid economic shifts and geopolitical tensions, the discussion surrounding tariffs and trade policies has never been more critical. In the latest episode of “Pivot,” hosts Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway delve deep into the turbulent waters of President Donald Trump’s tariff strategies and their far-reaching implications for the American economy. With retaliatory tariffs from major trade partners like the European Union and Canada costing billions, the stakes are higher than ever. This blog post will fact-check key assertions made during the episode, scrutinizing the claims about the economic fallout, the efficacy of these tariffs, and the overall impact on American consumers and businesses. Join us as we dissect the complexities of tariff chaos, armed with data and insights to uncover the truth behind the rhetoric.
Find a fact check of this transcript on CheckForFacts
Transcript:
[00:00:00,000]: I gotta get dressed for Whoopi Goldberg [00:00:01,799]: You know who’s on right after me [00:00:04,719]: Donny Osmond [00:00:05,619]: Donny Osmond [00:00:07,119]: That is literally literally just when I thought your flexes couldn’t get any weaker you’re bragging about that [00:00:15,239]: Oh [00:00:16,659]: Oh [00:00:16,719]: Oh [00:00:19,079]: Oh [00:00:19,100]: Oh [00:00:19,540]: Oh [00:00:20,239]: Oh [00:00:21,360]: Oh [00:00:22,000]: Welcome to the show from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network [00:00:24,500]: I’m Cara Swisher [00:00:25,540]: And I’m Scott Galloway [00:00:26,940]: How you doing Scott [00:00:27,420]: I just saw you last night when we were together [00:00:29,659]: Yeah [00:00:30,059]: It was fun [00:00:30,819]: Did you like it [00:00:31,440]: They love us together there on Anderson Cooper [00:00:34,159]: Yeah what a throw [00:00:35,759]: Yeah it was nice [00:00:36,500]: We spent a lot of time together [00:00:37,819]: It was very nice to see you [00:00:39,040]: It was very good to see you [00:00:39,939]: Nice to see you [00:00:40,700]: We’ve seen a lot of each other [00:00:41,880]: We’re at South by Southwest [00:00:43,439]: We have [00:00:44,259]: We’ve been hanging [00:00:44,880]: We’ve been rolling [00:00:46,159]: Yeah yeah yeah yeah [00:00:47,340]: Are you tired of me [00:00:48,439]: No [00:00:49,319]: I mean I was tired of you years ago but no more tired of you I should say [00:00:52,580]: That’s what I felt [00:00:53,340]: Yeah yeah [00:00:53,779]: No it’s nice to see you [00:00:54,779]: I always enjoy seeing you [00:00:55,979]: Last night literally we went to dinner and George and I just like leaned back and let you and Jess go at it [00:01:01,340]: Yeah I like her a lot [00:01:02,099]: She’s unusually tall [00:01:03,599]: I didn’t realize that until she got up [00:01:05,919]: Oh really [00:01:06,459]: Yeah she’s tall [00:01:07,139]: I think she played basketball in high school [00:01:08,680]: Yeah she’s a tall gal [00:01:09,860]: She’s a tall gal [00:01:11,000]: Absolutely [00:01:11,779]: Yeah [00:01:12,279]: Anyway are you tired [00:01:13,480]: I made Scott come early to work today because I’m going on the view [00:01:17,440]: I’m convinced for guys being tall is like big tits [00:01:20,860]: A woman just gets a natural amount of attention [00:01:23,879]: If she has a large it’s so true think about it [00:01:26,239]: Okay [00:01:28,239]: If a woman has big boobs she just gets an unnatural amount of attention [00:01:32,540]: And I think it’s the same for a guy if he’s tall [00:01:34,739]: I think height is a new boobs for men [00:01:36,620]: You know how you get a lot of attention [00:01:38,379]: You jump up and down to the stage in Austin [00:01:40,519]: I have had that picture so many times [00:01:41,819]: Oh that was magic [00:01:43,220]: So many times [00:01:44,120]: That was comedy gold TV [00:01:46,480]: My favorite thing was you just finally going the audience really responded when you said sit down [00:01:51,779]: Yeah I know [00:01:52,379]: But I was sitting there going sit down sit down sit down sit down [00:01:55,519]: I’ve gotten that picture sent to me [00:01:57,839]: Like what is going on here [00:01:59,540]: Just giving the ladies a little bit of daddy a little bit of dessert [00:02:04,000]: A little bit of dessert with their South by South or with their chicken fajitas with queso a little dog a little topping of the dog [00:02:11,460]: Give the people what they want Kara [00:02:12,880]: How about what would you like for Christmas [00:02:14,800]: I’d like a little Scott [00:02:16,600]: No I don’t think so [00:02:17,600]: But I did get that picture sent to me and asked me what was happening [00:02:20,580]: And I said the typical day in the life of Pivot essentially anyway [00:02:25,460]: Here’s what makes you funnier or more comfortable with being unfunny [00:02:29,440]: Just a recognition we’re all gonna be dead soon [00:02:32,559]: That’s right [00:02:34,059]: Yeah [00:02:34,820]: It just takes away all fear [00:02:36,339]: Let me think [00:02:36,860]: I’m comfortable with being unfunny [00:02:39,660]: Interesting [00:02:40,660]: Interesting [00:02:40,820]: Yeah well comfortable being unfunny trying to be funny [00:02:43,220]: Like taking risks right [00:02:44,679]: Right that’s true [00:02:45,500]: A lot of times as anyone who listens to the show will know a lot of my jokes don’t land [00:02:49,860]: And here’s the thing anyone not laughing you’re gonna be dead soon and so am I [00:02:53,179]: Oh okay [00:02:54,520]: All right okay all right [00:02:56,100]: Well those pictures will endure [00:02:57,580]: That’s the good thing [00:02:58,399]: They will [00:02:58,880]: They will endure over time [00:03:00,339]: Yes that’s my hope [00:03:00,960]: That’s definitely some therapy for my voice [00:03:03,500]: Death decisions are the metaphor of my life [00:03:06,399]: You know that [00:03:06,960]: That’s what I always do when I’m deciding what to say and do [00:03:10,240]: That you’re gonna be dead someday [00:03:11,419]: We’ve both had [00:03:12,960]: Yeah [00:03:13,360]: Well you had [00:03:14,919]: You had [00:03:15,940]: My dad died [00:03:16,800]: Obviously a health scare and you lost a parent very young [00:03:20,679]: Yeah [00:03:20,820]: I’m a raging atheist [00:03:22,720]: I think a very real sense of the finite nature of life is an absolute blessing [00:03:28,440]: I think it really is [00:03:29,660]: As you know that Steve Jobs essay that he did [00:03:32,740]: Actually it was a speech that he did at Stanford I read all the time [00:03:35,399]: I recommend it to everybody [00:03:36,720]: It’s all about living [00:03:38,520]: About denying your daughter her oath to avoid child support payments [00:03:43,919]: No that is not [00:03:45,100]: Let’s pretend he’s Jesus Christ because he invented a fucking phone [00:03:49,080]: No he didn’t invent the phone [00:03:50,899]: You’re part of the Acolytes [00:03:51,440]: By the way I just want to call it out [00:03:53,899]: I disliked Elon well before you [00:03:56,320]: That is true [00:03:57,220]: You used to be his defender [00:03:58,960]: Yeah I did [00:03:59,720]: You’re right [00:04:00,179]: I agree with you [00:04:01,119]: I did [00:04:01,880]: Well I was mostly attracted to the he was focused on important things versus I was so tired of people [00:04:07,199]: You’re right I was [00:04:08,160]: There’s no way out of it [00:04:09,020]: There was [00:04:10,119]: But I think I’ve more than made up for it [00:04:11,660]: Yeah you’re catching up [00:04:13,820]: I know I’m catching up [00:04:16,100]: Anyway we got a lot to get to today [00:04:19,320]: I’m in New York as I said [00:04:20,760]: I’m picking up my mom [00:04:22,380]: And then I’ll go back down to Washington [00:04:24,220]: I’ll be in Washington for a little while [00:04:25,420]: But we have a lot to get to today because Washington is where the action today is because of the market chaos from the Trump terrorist and the Tesla stunt at the White House the car sale at the White House [00:04:36,220]: We’ve got a lot to talk about [00:04:37,980]: But first Amazon announced this week that seven seasons of Donald Trump’s reality show The Apprentice will soon be streaming on Prime Video [00:04:46,399]: This follows Amazon paying a reported 40 million to license a not even own license a Melania Trump documentary [00:04:55,079]: Trump’s cut of the new streaming deal hasn’t been revealed but he was an executive producer on the show and he actually is well compensated when it was shown [00:05:04,540]: Netflix also just made a deal with Tony Hinchcliffe the comedian who sparked controversy with that racist joke at Trump rally last October about Puerto Ricans [00:05:15,480]: Talk to me about this [00:05:16,480]: I watched all the seasons of The Apprentice [00:05:18,619]: I’m kind of like I can see why you would buy this because he’s the president he’s popular with half the country [00:05:26,500]: I like the show so I kind of get it [00:05:30,040]: I’m surprised that it wasn’t available widely [00:05:33,119]: I don’t recall looking for it and I don’t know why you’d watch it again necessarily [00:05:37,559]: The Tony Hinchcliffe I get they’re gonna invest in all these things like this going forward and they’re gonna be behind the times because the ones you want to get are the Bill Burrs or whatever which they already have of course [00:05:50,299]: But what do you think of these programming moves [00:05:55,700]: So Tony Hinchcliffe I’m happy for him [00:05:59,540]: I like it with comedians even if I think comedians doing really well is really important on both sides of the aisle [00:06:07,140]: And so good for him good for is it Netflix that’s bringing him on [00:06:11,600]: Yeah Netflix [00:06:12,160]: Who is it yeah [00:06:13,160]: The thing that’s more troubling is the following [00:06:15,359]: There’s nothing wrong with if Amazon decides in terms of programming to bring on whatever shows they want from the past that help cement their value proposition [00:06:27,359]: The problem is that okay we have what appears to be Amazon paying overpaying for the Melania Trump documentary [00:06:33,059]: Absolutely in that case yes [00:06:35,000]: We have Jeff Bezos giving a million dollars to the inaugural campaign under what feels like duress [00:06:40,859]: We have also a kind of strange ironic timing where the owner the same guy of the Washington Post has decided they don’t need to have an opinion section which feels very quite frankly like he’s acquiescing to pressure from Trump [00:06:53,380]: So the problem is that if we end up in a situation where every person in power starts to take if you will kind of soft bribes in exchange for possibly exonerating that company from certain regulation or tariffs you just you have you end up with one of the reasons India has not quite frankly kept pace with China 20 years ago most analysts would have said half of analysts 20 30 years ago would have said the next enormous growth economy half would have said China half would have said India [00:07:22,899]: India’s a democracy English speakers huge emphasis on education strong with tech [00:07:27,519]: It wasn’t immediately obvious that China was gonna absolutely crush India in terms of growth but here’s one of the big problems with India [00:07:34,720]: It is wildly fucking corrupt and local officials and politicians extract a lot of unfair rents from businesses which makes everyone less competitive and creates incentives for more and more corruption [00:07:46,959]: China on a regular basis finds corrupt officials and business people and executes them and that is probably not the right way to go but there is they are very serious about corruption and that creates a more robust competitive workplace [00:08:02,720]: We are headed more towards India right now than we have been in the past [00:08:07,600]: Yeah I was not expecting this this India move [00:08:10,839]: This is really interesting [00:08:11,760]: I would agree the Melania thing is such it feels like such grift [00:08:14,959]: I mean they don’t own it the money is ridiculous they’re not gonna get the watching out of it [00:08:19,579]: I mean it’s whack when that was used [00:08:23,059]: That felt like a bribe [00:08:24,959]: The Washington Post thing certainly did and it continues to do by the way they lost their very excellent head of public relations there in communications left who’s a pro [00:08:36,739]: So many people are leaving there [00:08:38,460]: Ruth Marcus also a columnist great columnist one of their most popular columnists left when they spiked a piece that was mild at best which she published in the New Yorker which was fine [00:08:50,080]: She’s an excellent columnist [00:08:51,679]: She’s been there forever [00:08:52,679]: She was there when I was at the Washington Post [00:08:54,659]: The Apprentice I’m gonna say it’s a reasonable enough decision I guess for that one [00:09:01,440]: But you’re right it looks like payments to Donald Trump in some fashion or ways to get an advantage with him in some way especially Amazon all told yeah [00:09:14,219]: Don’t forget this is the guy that essentially opened a Swiss bank account that any foreign entity could deposit money into and only Donald Trump gets the receipts and knows what is going into that bank account and it’s called the Trump coin [00:09:26,500]: He basically set up the ultimate vessel for quiet off record bribes [00:09:33,039]: And where do we go [00:09:34,280]: A lot of Republicans will claim and I think there’s a real argument here Scott we’re just less opaque about it than Democrats [00:09:41,020]: We cut out the middlemen of lobbyists and of special interest groups and of people giving speeches [00:09:47,679]: And what do you know [00:09:47,979]: Oh they get that too [00:09:48,460]: What are you talking about [00:09:49,460]: But theoretically it’s a fair argument and this is where I just wanna bust a solutions [00:09:55,820]: I think the right solution here is Singapore and that is I believe every congressperson and every senator should be paid a million to 3 million a year [00:10:03,619]: I think the president should be paid 10 million a year [00:10:06,500]: But in exchange for that there is absolutely zero zero corruption [00:10:12,760]: No speeches no payments can’t work for a lobbyist for five years after you get out of office no trading of stocks just fucking nothing [00:10:21,700]: Because the incentives here are unfortunately I’m a very powerful person and I don’t make enough money to have a home back in Newport Beach and in D C and the incentives are quite frankly just to kind of file with the ethics committee [00:10:36,380]: Maybe they say oh you’re not supposed to trade stocks [00:10:38,400]: The penalties are really low [00:10:39,960]: We have to have a zero tolerance for this and dramatically increase their compensation [00:10:44,659]: Yeah I think that’s a great idea [00:10:46,479]: It’s what I was sort of yelling about last week is that they’re not getting their advantage through innovation and products they’re getting their advantage through access and that’s a bad sign [00:10:55,859]: It’s a bad sign for an industry [00:10:58,200]: It’s a bad sign that this is where they’re putting their focus and not on what they’re making [00:11:03,400]: And it just it looks like pigs at the trough is what happens [00:11:08,460]: Anyway it’s not a surprise but I’ll be interested to see how The Apprentice does [00:11:13,479]: Actually I really like The Apprentice as a program although I knew it was all cooked [00:11:17,440]: It was like watching wrestling [00:11:19,340]: And apparently he was handed every single remark he made on The Apprentice [00:11:23,659]: People who worked there told me that [00:11:25,539]: I never watched The Apprentice I never saw it [00:11:27,320]: I don’t know how it would be interesting now [00:11:29,520]: It’ll feel like such a throwback [00:11:31,440]: I’m gonna watch a couple of them to see because I did watch them all and I really enjoyed them at the time [00:11:36,159]: But then when you go back and watch things you used to watch you’re like how in the world did I ever watch that [00:11:40,520]: Like Three’s Company go do that for a little test for yourself and you’ll be like oh my God this is not keeping up [00:11:49,619]: ♪ Come and knock on our door ♪ ♪ The door come and knock on our door ♪ I love that yeah [00:11:54,020]: The running joke was that the guy was supposed to be gay [00:11:58,000]: I mean that was Yes it was so offensive [00:12:00,280]: It was incredibly homophobic pretty sexist [00:12:02,820]: And yet you still really liked John Ritter [00:12:05,159]: Yeah you did [00:12:05,659]: You still just like you did really like the guy [00:12:08,099]: Anyway don’t watch that show you won’t feel good [00:12:10,099]: You know what show disappointed me the most when I went back [00:12:12,739]: My favorite show speaking of an obsession with death my absolute favorite show no joke was Six Feet Under [00:12:18,380]: Did you ever watch that [00:12:19,280]: Of course I did yeah yeah [00:12:20,979]: It was that I remember thinking this is such incredible creative work [00:12:25,340]: I thought almost every show it made you feel really feel something [00:12:29,380]: And then it came back on I think AMC or something with commercial breaks and it just absolutely ruined it [00:12:34,340]: And you recognize it was the first time I thought people don’t realize that streaming’s real advantage is no commercials that storytelling is so much easier when every nine to 11 but that’s what’s so amazing about modern family is they imagine they’re able to keep the thread even though they have to interrupt it every 11 minutes with medication telling you to have restlessness [00:12:52,919]: I know I have a hard time with ads now it’s weird [00:12:55,239]: When I see them on the show I was up late last night watching Hobbes and Shaw but they kept having commercials and I didn’t know what to do [00:13:03,859]: I was like what do I do now [00:13:05,520]: Why am I waiting for this [00:13:06,580]: Anyway speaking of things that are perplexing to me and I know Jess yesterday liked it but I have a new argument against what she said [00:13:15,719]: California Governor Gavin Newsom had none other than Steve Bannon on his podcast [00:13:20,239]: The two kept up a reasonably friendly tone and Newsom didn’t push back when Bannon claimed Trump won the 2020 election [00:13:26,799]: He did the same with Charlie Kirk and Michael Savage and things they said that were just absolute nonsense lies really essentially [00:13:34,900]: And didn’t mention for example Kirk’s he has a wide range of terrible things he said that are really just awful actually in a way that I’ll go into it in a minute [00:13:47,919]: Their hour long conversation was mostly focused this is the Bannon one on economic issues and areas of common ground [00:13:53,219]: One of those areas Elon Musk [00:13:54,919]: Let’s listen to a clip [00:13:56,719]: Look he wants to be the first trillionaire in the world [00:13:58,840]: I mean what’s his end game here [00:14:00,059]: Well you know it you guys you created a governor [00:14:02,840]: I mean you guys you nurtured By the way in many respects California did [00:14:06,580]: Okay I guess so [00:14:08,599]: Newsom isn’t the only one making podcasts this week [00:14:12,020]: I’ll do all of them [00:14:13,059]: Former First Lady Michelle Obama has launched a video podcast with the Obama’s media company Higher Ground it’s with her brother [00:14:19,440]: The podcast IMO which will focus on it’s in my opinion on thoughtful conversations about life is co hosted with her brother Craig Robinson [00:14:31,000]: So I’m not sure what’s going on with hers [00:14:33,500]: I’ll talk about hers in a minute because I did listen to it [00:14:35,859]: The Newsom one and I texted him about it I had a lot of problem with because I understood his need to talk across the aisle with people [00:14:44,200]: First of all there’s a lot of people he could talk to that don’t constantly lie and his first three guests are really problematic in that regard [00:14:51,200]: But if you’re going to do that you have to address the real differences and not debate them but point them out factual inaccuracies [00:15:00,520]: And his sort of jocular tone I feel like it’s just a political he’s doing it only for politics and to reach out to mega voters perhaps [00:15:10,260]: I’m perplexed by the entire endeavor and said so to him [00:15:15,260]: What are your thoughts [00:15:17,440]: I think it’s really smart [00:15:19,479]: Yeah I know you think that [00:15:21,280]: Really smart [00:15:22,359]: Hey look first off it’s super important that we mix [00:15:28,400]: It’s super important that people from the right and the left I’d love to see a giant I’m going to go back as always I like to read everything in a personal parable that’s kind of relevant adjacent [00:15:39,880]: I was president of the Interfraternity Council which is like king of the jar heads back at UCLA [00:15:44,580]: I was quote unquote the head of the governing body that oversaw the Greek system [00:15:49,719]: And my big idea it was a time when there was a lot of tension between the fraternities which were mostly obviously all male mostly white and we used to have these stupid theme parties that were racist and it would inflame special interest groups who saw us and the administration that saw us was an easy target and the paper was always talking about what awful people we were [00:16:08,880]: Some of it deserved [00:16:09,960]: And my big idea was like let’s take the Black Students Alliance and MECHA which was the Latino group and let’s all get together and have beers or get together and play sports together but let’s mix [00:16:20,440]: And of course we’re like we want nothing to do with you fucking weirdos [00:16:23,380]: But I think it’s really important that people from different political views get together [00:16:29,320]: I think it creates empathy with one another [00:16:31,359]: Now what you’re saying is to let just say Biden was not Biden did not win the 2020 that requires a more honest hard pushback that says okay what evidence actually do you have of that [00:16:43,260]: And you’re saying he didn’t do that [00:16:44,760]: But in terms of just strategically for Governor Newsom it’s super smart [00:16:51,099]: He’s leveraging a new medium [00:16:52,400]: He’s going after new voters [00:16:54,739]: He’s meeting voters and people where they are on podcasts [00:16:58,020]: And also the tension in the conflict that’s part of the reason this show is successful [00:17:02,619]: We’re not politically aligned on a lot of things [00:17:04,920]: And the fact that he can talk about stuff he one shows that he’s smart two he appeals to moderates three he’s very good going kind of I don’t wanna say behind enemy lines but I think America is gonna want someone who go ahead [00:17:19,719]: Go ahead finish up first and then I’ll respond [00:17:22,099]: I think if he wants to be president which I believe he does America’s gonna want someone that they think at the end of the day can sit down with people from pretty far differing perspectives and have a reasonable conversation [00:17:33,599]: And he’s showing that [00:17:34,780]: All right perspectives different perspectives [00:17:37,160]: I agree [00:17:38,000]: I think that’s fine [00:17:39,020]: I think that’s great [00:17:39,560]: But let me just read Oliver Darcy wrote a column that I thought was perfect actually [00:17:43,640]: The harm of course isn’t just that Newsom is failing to challenge his guests as they lie about important topics to a sizable audience [00:17:50,219]: It’s that he’s actively contributing to the normalization of extremists by treating them as serious policy thinkers instead of dangerous right wing talkers who have caused immense damage to our country [00:17:59,839]: Figures like Bannon Kirk and Savage aren’t merely conservatives with different policy views [00:18:04,479]: They’re performers whose platforms are built on deliberate deceptions dangerous lies and hostility towards basic democratic principles [00:18:11,439]: By inviting them onto his show without seriously challenging their rhetoric Newsom has introduced these dishonest figures to new audiences and he’s done it while portraying them as serious voices who deserve respect and consideration [00:18:23,640]: Now he also goes on I’m gonna finish this part is Newsom’s friendly approach also represented a possible missed opportunity [00:18:31,219]: Real dialogue across political divides can have value but only when there’s actual accountability [00:18:36,579]: Hard hitting questioning challenging of false narratives and yes fact checking would have made for interesting show [00:18:41,660]: Imagine how Jon Stewart or John Oliver would have interrogated the positions of these far right wing personalities [00:18:48,880]: Had Newsom engaged in this style of interview his podcast would have served a valuable purpose exposing rather than amplifying dishonest media figures [00:18:57,300]: It would have been far more interesting than watching him bro it up with MAGA World [00:19:01,140]: And he did come to the same conclusion [00:19:03,520]: It’s a move that frankly suggests he values his own political future more than holding some of the world’s most toxic media figures accountable for their corrosive impacts on society [00:19:12,459]: In his sense his podcast revealed quite a lot about his character that he’s willing to do in the pursuit of power [00:19:17,780]: I really hate to say that but I would agree with that [00:19:20,699]: I don’t see a plus [00:19:22,979]: I see you know I like when there’s debates across things but these are unreliable and disingenuous people that are doing things to advantage stories that aren’t true [00:19:35,579]: And this is what Jess and I argued about when you guys were staring at us [00:19:40,380]: Because you spend all your time solving the lie and then you don’t actually have a discussion [00:19:48,780]: Yeah I mean I hear that and I’m like let’s clutch our pearls a little harder [00:19:52,280]: It’s not a clutch pearls [00:19:53,920]: Oh yeah it is for God’s sakes [00:19:55,459]: We can have Steve Bannon served was a senior advisor to the president [00:20:00,640]: He’s okay let me be clear [00:20:02,260]: I don’t like the man [00:20:03,180]: He said publicly that Trump’s administration should sue me [00:20:06,400]: I do not want Steve Bannon to be successful [00:20:08,619]: He had a very senior role in the previous administration [00:20:12,260]: He is very smart and he says some batshit crazy things [00:20:17,000]: The problem here was that Governor Newsom should have been able and been more prepared to really push back and say what you said here makes no sense [00:20:25,920]: Can you please tell us what your thinking is [00:20:28,219]: But we absolutely need more [00:20:30,780]: Okay the platform argument you don’t give Alex Jones a platform [00:20:36,000]: You don’t give the Tate brothers a platform [00:20:37,959]: I said to Pierce Morgan when I was on the show I’m like why do you bring this guy on [00:20:40,900]: You’re just adding legitimacy having him sit next to you on TV [00:20:45,660]: Guys like Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon look Democrats get over it [00:20:50,459]: And by the way I would like to see a lot of these crazy a lot of the more right podcasters bring on AOC [00:20:56,800]: And the thing you’re a great interviewer [00:21:00,339]: Governor Newsom is not [00:21:02,099]: And what you are able to do is the following [00:21:03,780]: And you guys have to thread a very fine needle [00:21:05,520]: And that is people aren’t gonna come on and be made a fool of and get into a shouting match [00:21:11,280]: So you have to show a little bit of respect [00:21:13,420]: And at the end of the day if they keep lying you have to say okay I don’t believe that’s true but you move on [00:21:18,780]: And you try to be hospitable and a good host and present people in their best light [00:21:23,479]: And I think he erred on the side of not pushing back where he probably should have [00:21:28,380]: But I think this is a really healthy thing [00:21:31,780]: I like when Pete Buttigieg goes on Fox News [00:21:34,180]: I like when Newsom was doing that with you know when he did a good job [00:21:38,099]: Ron DeSantis [00:21:39,219]: That was a really interesting debate okay [00:21:42,140]: Because he pushed back thoughtfully [00:21:44,459]: I don’t mind pushing thoughtful discussions [00:21:47,280]: I don’t [00:21:47,719]: In fact a lot of journalists have interviewed Steve Bannon [00:21:50,479]: I get it [00:21:51,160]: I get why you should do it [00:21:52,719]: The jocular stuff and pretending those things these people specifically do these things as a way to manipulate people [00:22:04,520]: They aren’t doing it [00:22:05,880]: They’re doing it not because of their beliefs [00:22:07,959]: They’re doing it to tickle MAGA in some way [00:22:11,140]: And I just think if you are gonna do this then act like you did with Ron DeSantis [00:22:16,319]: Show some preparation [00:22:17,719]: Show some I don’t expect him to be a journalist but I don’t expect him to pretend this never happened [00:22:23,219]: And that’s what these things are [00:22:24,780]: It was how he handled the interview not whether he should have been interviewed [00:22:27,079]: Right I didn’t [00:22:28,439]: I don’t think he shouldn’t [00:22:29,660]: What I do think he should do is do the job he did before [00:22:32,540]: And I was perplexed as to why it was like all joking all joking oh don’t we all get along [00:22:40,119]: And I think some of these people particularly Bannon is I think about whether I would do an interview with him or not [00:22:47,640]: And as part of me I think I made the joke [00:22:51,180]: Is it good to ask like because he’s warring with Musk [00:22:56,000]: So everyone’s like oh you should talk to him [00:22:58,520]: I don’t know if that’s enough common ground to really have anything that’s thoughtful in any way because you’re constantly spending your entire interview fixing the lie and then the conversations about the lie versus actual policy debate I guess [00:23:14,300]: But even that I’ve been asked so one of the shows we go on a lot sometimes the panelists I think like I just can’t keep up with the stream of falsehoods [00:23:25,959]: I’m not gonna be able to respond without fact checking real time [00:23:30,359]: But even what you said I think is valuable to say look so much of what you’re saying does not sound right and we can’t there’s so much of it that we can’t keep up with fact checking [00:23:39,959]: I think even that’s a fair statement to say you’re just flooding the zone [00:23:44,359]: It feels like you’re flooding the zone with non truths [00:23:46,579]: But really good interviews are able to say well actually I think of when this fairly famous venture capitalist who moved from San Francisco to Miami and started shitposting California long enough such that he could get a reduction in capital gains when he sold a stock went on CNBC and started basically lying about the earnings of Opendoor basically saying it was profitable when it wasn’t and Deidre Bolsa fact checked him real time [00:24:13,680]: She’s like no you can’t say this company is profitable [00:24:15,920]: It’s not [00:24:16,839]: She was so prepared or there was a producer in her ear going that’s not true push back on that [00:24:21,520]: She essentially real time said our viewers I don’t want you to lie to our viewers over and over [00:24:27,780]: We’re talking about people’s wealth and stock trades [00:24:30,380]: And two or three times she would stop him and say that’s just not true [00:24:34,140]: With politics it’s harder because some of it is subjective right [00:24:37,640]: I mean but if you’re gonna say like you said the election I mean that to me is just a softball [00:24:43,420]: Like please show me the evidence that contradicts the 62 court cases where the judges including Republican appointed judges and Trump appointed judges said there was no evidence of election fraud [00:24:54,520]: That’s all I wanted [00:24:55,859]: That’s essentially when he did the dissent when he goes on Fox I don’t think he’s hostile [00:25:00,660]: I think he’s having a great conversation actually [00:25:03,260]: I don’t think he’s like gotcha [00:25:05,439]: I just was like what happened to that Gavin [00:25:08,199]: Like what in the world happened [00:25:09,420]: And when he announced this I thought great idea [00:25:11,859]: You do very well in those environments and the conversations must be had [00:25:17,099]: But this was I just don’t know what he’s up to [00:25:20,479]: I don’t know what he’s up to here because it’s not the guy who goes on Fox News [00:25:23,400]: It’s not the guy who wades into people he disagrees with [00:25:28,079]: I do know California does need this funding from the Trump administration [00:25:33,339]: I see that he has to be a little more solicitous of these people but at the same time and he kind of wants to deneuter them before he runs [00:25:42,579]: And so he doesn’t get all the flack that they will inevitably aim at the next Democratic presidential nominee [00:25:49,739]: He’ll have Speaking of the apprentice I asked my master if I shave my ass does that mean I’m gay [00:25:55,880]: And he says he who is cleaning his house is expecting visitors [00:26:00,040]: Oh that’s wrong [00:26:01,319]: That’s really that’s awful [00:26:02,560]: I kind of like that [00:26:03,400]: That’s perfect that’s perfect [00:26:05,000]: In any case That’s my way of saying we need to segue out of this story [00:26:07,739]: We do I do but I do wish he had done what he had done with DeSantis and others and he’s not doing that here [00:26:12,780]: And I wish he had left with You got the last word [00:26:14,020]: This is called our relationship [00:26:15,219]: You got the last word [00:26:16,239]: He should also have left wing figures he disagrees with [00:26:18,800]: Anyway apparently they won’t go on [00:26:20,380]: He told me they won’t go on [00:26:21,459]: Yes I know [00:26:22,319]: Get AOC on and Bernie [00:26:23,739]: Can you imagine the two of them together [00:26:25,859]: Oh my God [00:26:26,680]: Don’t you just hope they both get naked and go at it [00:26:28,839]: No I don’t [00:26:29,880]: No I don’t in any way [00:26:30,780]: I’d pay cash money to see Governor Newsom and Representative Ocasio Cortez [00:26:36,339]: Oh God [00:26:37,420]: Okay Scott let’s go on a quick break when we come back Trump’s chaotic tariffs [00:26:41,359]: Scott we’re back with the ongoing tariff whiplash [00:26:43,959]: The EU and Canada announced billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs on Wednesday after President Trump levies on steel and aluminum went into effect [00:26:53,359]: The markets continue their rollercoaster ride fluctuating with all the tariff pivots speaking of pivots which you and I called red light green light on Anderson Cooper last night but steadying slightly with positive inflation report but people are still expecting inflation to rise [00:27:09,000]: I’ll note we’re recording this Thursday morning so Trump may change his mind on tariffs several more times before our listeners hear this [00:27:16,239]: We’ll get into recession concerns which I’m calling Trump session in a bit but what do you think will happen [00:27:22,560]: What do you think about these tariffs over the last few days [00:27:25,739]: Are markets overreacting or are they getting it right [00:27:28,920]: The Wall Street Journal reported on a closed door gathering of CEOs this week at the Business Roundtable where impromptu poll was taken about the economy [00:27:36,839]: Oh this was the Jeffrey Sonnenfeld one [00:27:38,839]: 44 of the market said would have to fail 20 for them to speak out 22 said stocks would have to fall 30 before they would take a stand [00:27:51,219]: Jamie Dimon finally did after saying Trump’s get over it on the tariffs is now saying this is a bad thing [00:27:56,959]: Start with tariffs [00:27:59,680]: First off I think Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is a gift and he wrote a fantastic opinion piece about how some of these corporate leaders who claim to be leaders and claim to care about America need to speak up and there haven’t been that many [00:28:12,140]: Congratulations to Jamie for kind of stepping into the void and saying what’s on everybody’s mind [00:28:15,680]: I think you’re going to see more of it [00:28:16,705]: Tariffs are the following they’re not universally bad [00:28:22,385]: If China is charging a tariff on our cars we get to charge a tariff on their cars until we both decide to lower tariffs [00:28:30,705]: Free trade creates prosperity [00:28:32,425]: You can also probably need a tariff to support certain strategic industries [00:28:36,885]: We probably should have some level of domestic production of steel in case those supply chains are shut down and we need to build tanks or what have you [00:28:46,005]: But when for example these aluminum and steel tariffs we tried that in the last Trump administration and what they found is the following that okay let’s assume that the additional revenue created by the tariffs let’s assume that the additional revenue captured by Cleveland Cliffs and U S Steel our two largest remaining steel manufacturers their market their products become more competitive because foreign steel is more expensive so they get more share more money more tax revenue more jobs [00:29:12,765]: All right theoretically it all works [00:29:14,005]: Here’s the problem [00:29:16,405]: One consumers prices get increased [00:29:19,345]: Consumers have to pay up to six eight 12 000 more for a truck with these tariffs which takes down the demand which takes down the gross profits of the domestic supplier because their products are more expensive relative to other people’s products because we have to increase our input costs [00:29:37,065]: There is a reciprocal tariff almost always meaning that our products become more expensive overseas [00:29:42,905]: And what you found with the aluminum steel tariffs is that the increase in the cost of steel made that so many products across America had to increase their prices because steel and aluminum were big inputs that the increase in prices reduced demand much more than the incremental income gains from the companies that benefit from their products being more competitive [00:30:05,885]: In some in almost every case tariffs don’t work [00:30:08,565]: And if you look at what companies do thousands of times a year across the market they are perfectly trying to calibrate [00:30:16,005]: Nike is perfectly trying to calibrate volume times gross margin and figure out the exact peanut butter and chocolate combination for shareholders [00:30:24,485]: All right if we lowered our prices and took our margins down from 30 points to 10 points we’d double our volume but we’d end up with less profit [00:30:32,645]: So they perfectly attempt or attempt to perfectly calibrate across every market what is the optimal price relative to volume relative to margin [00:30:40,145]: And when the government comes with tariffs what they’re saying is hey company you’re stupid [00:30:44,245]: We could take prices up and it wouldn’t hurt demand [00:30:46,905]: And it never works out that way [00:30:49,165]: It usually suppresses demand and revenues in a much greater volume or amount than the increase in revenues [00:30:55,985]: It makes us less competitive [00:30:57,305]: It makes us less productive and it increases costs [00:31:00,125]: If you’re looking for an elegant way to increase consumer costs while reducing productivity and demand across our products in foreign markets congratulations this is supersizing Brexit [00:31:12,325]: This is the most elegant efficient way to reduce American prosperity [00:31:15,985]: It makes absolutely no sense [00:31:18,905]: Sorry there’s a period [00:31:20,545]: Boom boom Professor Galloway gives you his lecture in class [00:31:24,285]: Even worse than this [00:31:25,585]: Yeah [00:31:25,965]: Even worse than this [00:31:27,225]: Even worse than the tariffs [00:31:28,725]: Yeah [00:31:28,945]: If he said all right I’m putting a 10 tariff on everything from China American companies could go okay this is stupid whatever but he gets to make this decision [00:31:36,425]: But they could plan they could say okay the cost of our shoes and our cars is about to go up 12 or 15 [00:31:42,945]: We estimate that demand will fall by this and we could adjust and plan for this [00:31:47,105]: But here’s what’s even worse than these ridiculously stupid tariffs is the uncertainty means that foreign and domestic suppliers can’t plan their goddamn business [00:31:58,405]: When we were at South by Southwest a lot of the digital media companies who were off to a great start of the year right [00:32:05,285]: The lack of uncertainty because okay we know Trump’s in office [00:32:08,745]: We sort of know we think we sort of know what to expect [00:32:11,145]: Let’s get back to business and start spending money [00:32:13,025]: The 2025 started great for digital media companies dependent upon consumer advertising [00:32:18,445]: And now their quarter has been blown because some of the biggest advertisers in America including automobile companies have all said the following [00:32:27,225]: We have no fucking idea what’s going on so we’re doing nothing [00:32:30,985]: They have told their media planners until there’s more clarity stop spending money [00:32:36,225]: And the lack of certainty the lack of consistency as a trading partner means every large organization and company in the world is trying to reconfigure their supply chain to be less dependent upon America which means less money for America [00:32:50,305]: The tariffs are bad [00:32:51,765]: The uncertainty is even worse [00:32:53,825]: Oh wow [00:32:54,245]: That was a lecture [00:32:55,385]: I just felt like I was macroeconomics back in college right now [00:32:58,285]: That was a macroeconomics professor [00:33:01,325]: Well yeah it felt like yeah I took macroeconomics in my freshman year [00:33:05,945]: Thank you Professor Galloway for that cogent analysis [00:33:09,665]: It sucks is what I’m saying [00:33:10,425]: Now come by my office hours and I’ll help you on the hard parts [00:33:12,845]: No no no don’t do that don’t do that don’t do that [00:33:14,545]: That’s wrong [00:33:15,145]: No that’s wrong [00:33:15,785]: That’s wrong that’s wrong [00:33:17,225]: That’s wrong [00:33:17,685]: Listen let me I will give a much shorter thing [00:33:19,585]: I was on the Amtrak train when the people were coming back from the business round table to New York and all of them were insulting Trump every one of them even if they don’t speak out [00:33:27,985]: They all said what a fucking idiot [00:33:29,205]: This uncertainty sucks [00:33:30,705]: And they were all insulting it and saying what do we do now [00:33:33,585]: Because they talked too loud on an Amtrak train all these men they were all men and one woman [00:33:39,385]: And then secondly a CEO of a very big public company that is going to be affected by tariffs and I’m not going to say what it is [00:33:49,845]: I said what are you going to do now [00:33:51,865]: What are you going to do now [00:33:53,205]: And he said pass it on to consumers [00:33:55,725]: And I was like thought so right [00:33:58,105]: And so and it’s going to hurt his business [00:34:00,545]: He was like I’m going to have to pass along to consumers [00:34:03,325]: There’s no other way [00:34:04,785]: And it’s going to affect his business across the globe absolutely [00:34:08,445]: And it was like this is we don’t know what to do so we’re going to do anything [00:34:11,665]: It’s going to affect everyone along with the cuts in government the sort of non scalpel like cuts in government which would hearten people the across the board cuts where you don’t know where it’s going to happen with crazy Elon with a chainsaw same thing [00:34:25,105]: Nobody knows because there’s you know it’s interesting because the Department of Education cuts everyone’s like oh it’s not useful [00:34:31,845]: They mostly have privatized much of their research and studies and stuff that’s actually somewhat useful to know if things work or not different testing and things like that [00:34:40,965]: That’s all been privatized so that’s going to have second and third order effects and mostly across the country not in Washington [00:34:48,605]: And so although Washington’s also going to be affected so the effects are everywhere [00:34:52,685]: And so that’s why there’s been a lot of talk which I call a Trump session [00:34:57,625]: I’m going to keep saying that word till it catches on like Bidenomics [00:35:02,025]: Though Trump is dancing around that language [00:35:04,405]: Let’s listen to what he told Fox Business Maria Bartiromo earlier this week [00:35:08,845]: By the way Kara Swisher is not a fan of Maria Bartiromo when asked about the possibility of a recession [00:35:15,445]: I hate to predict things like that [00:35:17,725]: There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big [00:35:22,385]: We’re bringing wealth back to America [00:35:25,045]: That’s a big thing [00:35:26,625]: And there are always periods of it takes a little time [00:35:32,125]: It takes a little time [00:35:34,065]: But I think it should be great for us [00:35:37,305]: This issue has been a real hair up his ass the idea that tariffs will work [00:35:41,185]: He’s way back in the Smoot Hawley days [00:35:43,285]: But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had a different take on tariffs and recession in an interview with CBS News [00:35:49,105]: Let’s listen [00:35:50,185]: These policies are the most important thing America has ever had [00:35:54,925]: So it is worth it [00:35:56,005]: It is worth it [00:35:56,985]: A I don’t think they’ll the only reason there could possibly be a recession is because of the Biden nonsense that we had to live with [00:36:04,285]: These policies produce revenues [00:36:06,865]: So you’re saying when it looks chaotic and unpredictable from the outside that there actually is a master plan when it comes to these tariffs [00:36:15,525]: It is not chaotic [00:36:16,885]: And the only one who thinks it’s chaotic is someone who’s being silly [00:36:20,645]: Oh my God he’s such a clown [00:36:22,505]: He’s such a ridiculous sucker upper [00:36:26,105]: I’m sorry [00:36:26,185]: Go ahead [00:36:26,405]: The most important thing in American history so our decision to at huge cost risk to our young men risk to our economy turning washing machine factories into tank factories overnight we decided for the second time to enter into World War II and push back on fascism [00:36:44,585]: Oh we decided that this incredible prosperity and rights should be extended to not civil rights [00:36:49,905]: Oh I’m sorry [00:36:51,405]: But these fucking tariffs are the most important thing America’s ever done [00:36:54,625]: I know [00:36:55,245]: I mean you just lose so much credibility when you say that [00:36:58,445]: And this is so chaotic [00:37:00,865]: I don’t even know the status of the tariffs right now [00:37:04,865]: And I follow this shit [00:37:06,525]: So these guys come across have you [00:37:10,005]: I now know why this guy is not respected on Wall Street when he opens his mouth [00:37:14,165]: He’s such a clown [00:37:14,985]: He’s a suck up to Trump because he’s finally relevant [00:37:18,325]: He goes around talking about who’s best friends to Trump in Washington all over the place [00:37:22,565]: He is the thirstiest public official I’ve ever seen [00:37:27,765]: And it’s because he’s not beloved on Wall Street [00:37:31,025]: And secondly he’s spewing nonsense just nonsense out of his mouth [00:37:34,945]: You know who’s the big winner here is China [00:37:36,845]: You know China [00:37:37,425]: China has literally deployed dozens if not hundreds of their diplomats to the biggest European and Latin American companies [00:37:45,565]: And they’ve said the following you may not love us but you can count on us [00:37:51,245]: Where we like trade we like commerce and we do what we say [00:37:55,885]: And you know what you’re dealing with with us [00:37:59,145]: You’ve been buying all this produce or products or finished products or soft whatever it might be from the US [00:38:04,805]: You have no idea how to plan and what to expect from these folks [00:38:08,025]: You can count on us [00:38:09,365]: This is the deal [00:38:10,665]: We are open for business [00:38:12,105]: We love commerce [00:38:13,305]: We are a dependable consistent partner [00:38:16,245]: Or even not China Canada’s gonna do more business with [00:38:19,045]: This is literally a gift to every major economic power that had to compete against America [00:38:26,925]: What they’re saying is America is not competitive because you can’t believe what they say [00:38:32,045]: And the greatest level of damage here isn’t even gonna show up in the short run [00:38:36,505]: Goldman Sachs already took their GDP prediction from 25 down from 2 4 to 1 7 [00:38:41,385]: It’ll be the long term impacts of when people reconfigure their supply chain and their relationships they’re gonna be somewhat remissed to re engage again [00:38:50,465]: This is gonna be a structural step down in our credibility across our largest trading partners [00:38:56,385]: And trade no doubt if you don’t think about who gets really hurt you can end up with a really difficult situation [00:39:03,925]: And that’s where America [00:39:05,325]: America’s been really good on trade [00:39:06,345]: Where we’re bad is helping out and showing empathy for the people who get quite frankly who are on the wrong end of that [00:39:12,665]: But on the whole prosperity just grows [00:39:16,205]: We just continue to see that economically over time [00:39:19,865]: And people when they stop buying our products not because they might [00:39:22,885]: They might be the most competitive in a year but they’re like we don’t know what’s gonna happen in the next year or two years [00:39:27,305]: So do you think a recession is likely at this point [00:39:29,725]: Because again with this fellow in charge I mean I’m thinking Gina Raimondo is so smart and this guy is so dumb [00:39:36,625]: Like actually dumb [00:39:37,725]: Like I think he when macroeconomics was taking place he was the one sleeping behind me the dude sleeping on the desk behind me [00:39:45,105]: That’s what it feels like [00:39:46,185]: He’s not paying attention to almost any obvious thing [00:39:49,705]: And you’re right [00:39:50,625]: We didn’t take [00:39:51,485]: When we did some of these trade deals we didn’t think of the effects here enough and figured out how to retrain and get people into new jobs and things that were more competitive and figure out what advanced manufacturing we could do here with our population and et cetera et cetera [00:40:05,625]: This is an opportunity for China [00:40:07,765]: So do you you know and the second thing is people worried about their 401ks and portfolios during this volatility [00:40:13,865]: I mean do you think there’s gonna be a recession very briefly [00:40:16,705]: And then what would you say to people with the stock market [00:40:21,065]: Warren Buffett looks like a genius [00:40:23,105]: Tariffs suck [00:40:23,785]: I’m in cash [00:40:24,965]: Look who looks like he is the goat [00:40:27,165]: He should be president but anyway [00:40:31,165]: Like economists I don’t consider myself like an economist but quote unquote academics have predicted nine of the last three recessions [00:40:37,105]: It’s very hard to tell because you could have AI finally get real traction in the economy and massively increase productivity which results in economic growth that overcompensates for these ridiculous tariffs [00:40:47,445]: And we have a tendency to sometimes overestimate the power of the president and his policies on this unbelievable engine called the American economy that usually over the medium and long term sort of figures out a way [00:40:58,945]: So I think it’s dangerous to predict a recession [00:41:04,805]: What was your second question Cara [00:41:06,065]: What would you do [00:41:07,045]: You’re in the stock market [00:41:08,445]: Just leave it alone [00:41:09,405]: Oh the market [00:41:09,985]: Look the only thing I would consider is the following [00:41:13,485]: And that is this stat just blew my mind [00:41:16,985]: If you add in corporate debt so people have heard that the market capitalization of US stocks now represents 50 of total equity value globally which is extraordinary [00:41:26,065]: But if you add in corporate debt because the enterprise value of a company is its market cap say 100 million plus if it has 50 million in debt the market is saying that this company is worth 150 million because we’re giving it 100 million in equity value despite the fact it also owes 50 million [00:41:40,465]: We’re saying it’s worth 150 million [00:41:41,925]: If you add in all corporate debt and the world is worth 100 America costs 70 right now and the rest of the world sans the US costs 30 [00:41:53,305]: So if someone said to you Cara Swisher you can either buy America for 70 or the rest of the world for 30 which would you’d buy the rest of the world [00:42:03,105]: And so what I’m doing is the following [00:42:04,865]: First off I think you’re always invested in the markets [00:42:07,285]: Don’t try and time them [00:42:08,165]: You are not Warren Buffett [00:42:09,325]: And when people predict a recession oftentimes the market goes up 20 or 30 and also you have to take into account whether you’re gonna trigger a taxable gain on your a taxable event on your income gains [00:42:20,125]: What I would suggest and this is not financial advice but what I am doing 70 versus 30 I am pulling money out of the US and I’m putting into low cost diversified index funds in non US markets [00:42:31,885]: Because while index funds will diversify you if you’re just in an S P or a Nasdaq index fund you’re actually not that diversified because typically when the markets get this expensive in America for the next five or 10 years you have 0 returns [00:42:46,765]: European stocks haven’t been this cheap in a long time [00:42:50,025]: American stocks haven’t been this expensive in a long time [00:42:53,145]: So what I would say is one I don’t think you should go to cash [00:42:56,945]: I just don’t think you can time the markets [00:42:58,605]: But what I would suggest is thinking about diversifying across geographies not just asset classes [00:43:03,725]: Yeah excellent excellent advice [00:43:05,685]: Professor Galloway [00:43:06,545]: This was a very professorial [00:43:08,305]: I used to fall asleep in Macrock [00:43:10,105]: It’s that math I did this morning [00:43:11,845]: I was like this [00:43:13,025]: I used to do that [00:43:13,845]: It was at 8 10 in the morning [00:43:16,025]: Anyway let’s go on a quick break [00:43:18,065]: We’ll be back to chat about Trump and Elon Hawking Tesla’s at the White House [00:43:23,905]: Scott we’re back with our second big story the beautiful bromance of Elon ed trust continues [00:43:28,905]: That’s from our producers [00:43:30,585]: The rest of us worry about dismantling of our government [00:43:32,985]: President Trump is focused on a very important task promoting sales of Teslas [00:43:37,245]: After posting on True Social Tuesday morning he said he would buy a Tesla to support Musk [00:43:41,865]: I bet he hasn’t [00:43:43,045]: Trump welcomed Elon and a fleet of Teslas to the White House [00:43:45,765]: The president had a cheat sheet of notes and kudos to that photographer who got that picture in his hands while praising the company [00:43:52,385]: Let’s listen to what he thought when he sat in one of the cars [00:43:56,025]: And by the way he hates EVs [00:43:58,865]: He said he actually hates EVs [00:44:00,785]: He doesn’t drive et cetera et cetera [00:44:02,845]: So this was why this was precious [00:44:07,325]: This is a different panel than I’ve had [00:44:09,525]: Everything’s computer [00:44:11,485]: That’s beautiful [00:44:13,074]: Oh my God he hasn’t ever been inside a car in like a long time [00:44:19,514]: It’s really I mean a car looks like that [00:44:21,554]: Tesla stock is down 26 in the last month at the time of the taping [00:44:24,774]: It had a bump from Trump but most people are just there were two analysts reports showing that Tesla’s in real trouble that are taking the stock price down quite considerably although it’s hard to bet against Tesla because of like stunts like this [00:44:39,914]: Scott did you know that there’s a computer in a Tesla [00:44:45,994]: I just what the fuck [00:44:47,714]: What do you think of this stunt [00:44:50,614]: Look we have a bias but this to me just seemed fucking ridiculous [00:44:56,234]: Yeah [00:44:56,714]: That the president of the United States would decide to do an infomercial for one brand and not all other American brands [00:45:02,374]: It’s one thing if he and the commerce secretary were to stand in front of a bunch of American made EVs including Tesla [00:45:08,114]: I think Biden screwed up not including Tesla in the EV summit [00:45:11,474]: That was punitive the other way [00:45:13,574]: That was playing favorites the other way [00:45:16,574]: But when you basically do one of these bad local I’m crazy Bob come down to Bob’s Ford and Lincoln Mercury for a crazy deal [00:45:25,254]: No percent down whatever [00:45:27,114]: I was joking that you can lease to own America for 285 million [00:45:33,494]: It’s just this is stupid and goes back to the notion that this kind of shit should not be allowed [00:45:39,634]: It reflects poorly on America it reflects poorly on Trump [00:45:44,334]: And the thing I don’t get about Musk who is so obviously has such an unbelievable feel for business is that 75 of Republicans say they would never buy an EV [00:45:54,834]: If he was just purely quote unquote economically driven which I think he is I think he would have gone blue pill [00:46:02,574]: Because the marketplace I always use the example we talked about this when Nike went political it was a smart move because they tickled the sensors of the core market [00:46:11,194]: He’s pissing off his core market [00:46:13,034]: I just don’t understand I think he’s uninterested in Tesla [00:46:16,634]: I think he’s uninterested in Tesla anymore [00:46:18,654]: I don’t know what else because they haven’t innovated on the product [00:46:21,874]: I know everybody sort of looks at the polarization that he’s created and he’s repulsing his customers and he’s not going to attract the ones who like him now right [00:46:31,134]: They may like him they’re not going to buy his car [00:46:34,554]: They might [00:46:35,394]: I mean they might I guess but I doubt it [00:46:37,514]: Sean Hannity supposedly bought one whatever and he’s like it goes it go fast [00:46:41,714]: I was like these are good cars [00:46:43,134]: I complained again to Dara Coaster Shahi [00:46:45,174]: I was like I just ordered an Uber Black and a Tesla showed up and they’re still not luxury cars [00:46:52,554]: Now I’m making the argument to him it’s not a luxury car [00:46:55,434]: It’s very tinny and a bumpy ride [00:46:57,814]: And if I wanted a luxury car send me an actual luxury car if I’m paying for it [00:47:02,394]: But that said I think it was pathetic [00:47:05,914]: But now interestingly if support doesn’t do what Elon was hoping in the long term which was at least stabilize Tesla shares which are drifting down I suspect they’re going to be drifting down again [00:47:17,574]: It’s not the only way the president is attempting to help him [00:47:20,474]: Trump also said he would label attacks against Tesla dealerships domestic terrorism [00:47:25,954]: Nobody likes these attacks [00:47:27,574]: These are stupid what people they’re allowed to protest [00:47:30,894]: And the fact that he’s calling he’s trying to sort of link regular protests with domestic terrorism is ridiculous [00:47:36,994]: But attacking you know charger facilities et cetera is just violent is what it is [00:47:42,434]: It’s not terrorism [00:47:43,334]: It’s just obnoxious and illegal and those should be arrested [00:47:47,274]: And Elon Musk is paying back the favors [00:47:49,394]: He reportedly plans to give 100 million to President Trump’s political operation that Trump can control rather than Musk during the election [00:47:58,954]: Musk donated over 250 million to his pro Trump super PAC that he controlled [00:48:03,794]: He made up that 100 million in the rise in Tesla stock after Trump did this infomercial [00:48:10,734]: But it feels so pay to play [00:48:12,794]: It’s like so right in front of you [00:48:14,434]: And I agree Biden should have included a Tesla in that particular event at the White House [00:48:20,994]: And you know someone was arguing that presidents always promote different American products but not like this [00:48:27,814]: This was like it was plus he didn’t know how cars worked which made him seem older and more like an old man in my I think that also was weird [00:48:36,894]: His discomfort inside of a car felt very I don’t know it gave me like a like a Biden feel like a doddering old man kind of [00:48:47,134]: And he’s I think he is much more vibrant obviously than Biden [00:48:51,094]: Any other thoughts about this money that that’s going back and forth between these two [00:48:57,834]: There’s it really is [00:48:59,614]: I mean it’s so passe but money in politics and just what feels like a straight pay for play and all the incentives are I mean I’ve said this for a long time that the thing that so has horrified me about our representatives and our Congress is not that they’re whores not that if you give them money you get audience with them I’ve known that for a long time [00:49:19,574]: It’s what incredibly cheap whores they are [00:49:22,054]: And that is if you give 10 to 25 grand to every senator I bet more than half would meet with you when you swung by Washington [00:49:33,254]: And influence is a function of proximity and intimacy [00:49:36,354]: You have audience with people who get to who get to levy or are the arbiters of the largest person in history [00:49:43,454]: So the incentives are Jeff Bezos or or or Mark Zuckerberg look at these investments and go this is the best investment in history a million bucks for his inauguration campaign and he stops threatening to put me in jail or he’s going to not try and break me up or he’s going to tell the FTC or the DOJ to hands off Amazon or whoever [00:50:02,654]: This is the best money spent unless you have systemic laws and regulation that says no we pass laws that affect all companies [00:50:11,574]: We’re not allowed to play we’re not allowed to play favorites [00:50:14,994]: It’s just a race to the bottom where everyone’s like all right let’s give him a giant medal and award and build a gold statue of him and give 10 million to his electoral campaign [00:50:26,274]: And the problem is that favors the incumbents because they’re the ones that have all the power [00:50:30,314]: And anybody who says no I’m standing up for American values I’m not going to take this money they’re at a huge disadvantage and we end up with a majority of our elected officials are willing to engage in this grift in this trade [00:50:43,414]: So You know it’s interesting because there is a point to be made that you know other politicians are getting paid under the table and this is explicit but it’s gross no matter how it happens [00:50:53,314]: And it doesn’t look like it’s about the products right [00:50:55,854]: It never it’s not about what’s best it’s what who can pay me the most [00:50:59,674]: And that you know that’s the we’re not focused on making things that are good [00:51:05,394]: We’re focused on who owes the money [00:51:07,454]: And that we all know that about American politics but it’s not implicit or explicit [00:51:13,494]: It’s grotesque is what it is [00:51:14,894]: You know who is just one example you know who’s doing this right University of California [00:51:19,574]: I owe California taxpayers a lot [00:51:21,594]: I’ve given some money to UCLA and to Berkeley and both the chancellors of UCLA and Berkeley called me and said one thank you [00:51:28,934]: And two I just need you to know this [00:51:30,954]: Your kid is less likely to get in now that you have given money [00:51:35,374]: They are not only so like you know worried about conflicts of interest and abusing the public purse that if you give over a certain amount of money to the University of California the chancellor will call you and say just FYI your kid is now less likely to get in because we have to be so careful about conflicts and not abusing the public trust [00:51:54,214]: And quite frankly I respect it [00:51:56,794]: And this is the exact You can call your kid Swisher [00:51:58,694]: You want to change the kid’s name to Swisher [00:52:01,054]: Trust me I’ll call you [00:52:02,374]: That’s right you went to a private school where you can still just pay you can do pay for play [00:52:06,474]: Yeah that’s true [00:52:07,774]: But this that is how government that is how you are supposed to respect the power of money you’re given [00:52:14,174]: This is when he when he favors industries he’s spending your money [00:52:19,414]: He’s abusing your tax dollars for his money [00:52:22,314]: Totally [00:52:22,334]: I don’t even know how much that costs [00:52:23,614]: That probably costs like it’s the amount of money this guy just throws away of taxpayer money like on golfing or his dumb military flights of immigrants that are overpriced and then does this you know it’s just ridiculous [00:52:37,014]: And you know and the only person that benefited was Elon Musk with the stock going up and then somewhere somehow there’s money in Trump’s pocket every time [00:52:45,354]: I think this was bad for the brand [00:52:46,894]: I really do [00:52:47,794]: I think it just It looked desperate [00:52:49,174]: I think it looked desperate [00:52:51,134]: Yeah [00:52:51,414]: I would you know I really now that you really don’t want to own a Tesla [00:52:55,154]: All right Scott one more quick break [00:52:56,954]: We’ll be back for predictions [00:52:58,694]: Okay Scott let’s hear your prediction and just say you thought that they’re going to break up [00:53:02,614]: Do you still think that [00:53:03,834]: You said Doge should be over and Elon would be gone [00:53:07,074]: But let’s let’s hear your prediction first [00:53:10,594]: Well that’s that is my prediction [00:53:13,074]: And that is there’s not going to be a breakup [00:53:15,074]: I think that essentially people keep asking us as Anderson did last night when does the relationship end [00:53:20,734]: I don’t think the relationship ends with a bang [00:53:23,354]: I think he just sorts I think Musk just fades to black [00:53:26,414]: One if Doge if the Trump is if the president is really serious about the cabinet secretaries now get to make the final decision and Musk is just an advisor to them that means nothing is going to happen because these cabinet secretaries have a very difficult job [00:53:42,554]: They need all of their staff [00:53:43,714]: The savings are minimal in comparison to for example the increase in the deficits from the planned tax cuts [00:53:50,654]: If Elon Musk comes back he’s not going to come back with a thoughtful you could probably cut a thousand of the 4 500 people from the Department of Education who have overseen national mandatory testing which most people think has not worked [00:54:03,154]: Right intentions has not worked [00:54:04,534]: If he came back with thoughtful recommendations the Department of Education might say okay that might make sense [00:54:10,894]: But he’s not he’s not there to look at fraud and waste which by the way we’ve got a clean on so far because I can’t find as much as everyone had anticipated [00:54:20,314]: But also these are not this isn’t about an audit [00:54:22,674]: This isn’t about efficiency [00:54:23,794]: These are this is a these are political actions [00:54:26,854]: When you cut off all USAID it’s a political action and political actions are supposed to be left to our elected representatives representing the people [00:54:36,194]: So if it was in fact about efficiency fine [00:54:38,814]: But what he said is if he in fact is honest about now he’s just an advisor he’s going to have no power [00:54:45,814]: Nothing’s going to happen [00:54:46,874]: And in addition he is now probably doing the math and going I miscalculated [00:54:53,214]: There are not only is his Tesla sales being hammered but what he’s really scared of has happened [00:54:58,834]: And that is the virus here has jumped the lab to Starlink [00:55:04,394]: And that is a lot of big customers are now rethinking their Starlink relationship [00:55:08,814]: So what initially was very accretive to his personal wealth has returned [00:55:12,714]: He’s lost all that money and the momentum is downward [00:55:15,214]: So I think he’s basically going to pull of the VEC and just slowly fade away out of and I think Doge is going to die a quiet death because he has it looks as if his power has been emasculated [00:55:27,934]: And two he’s just losing so much money right now because of the negative brand halo [00:55:33,134]: And guess what country has alternatives [00:55:36,214]: And Jeff Bezos is working on things [00:55:38,214]: There’s so to Starlink now Starlink is dominant at this point but and he keeps saying there’s no other alternative [00:55:43,994]: He said that about Tesla [00:55:45,434]: There’s other alternatives [00:55:46,654]: There’s going to be other alternatives [00:55:48,414]: And then he is up the creek without that proverbial paddle [00:55:52,034]: You’re right [00:55:52,394]: I agree with you [00:55:53,574]: Interesting prediction [00:55:54,134]: We’ll see [00:55:54,774]: There is a staying power [00:55:56,214]: There’s a weird relationship happening between these two though that he stays there that he’s at the White House the kids around [00:56:02,614]: There’s something much different here but I would agree [00:56:06,034]: He almost teared up when he was talking about the money he was losing [00:56:09,774]: Even the world’s richest man doesn’t like to lose [00:56:12,654]: Tens of billions of dollars on any one day [00:56:15,854]: So Cara you know what stock is up [00:56:17,294]: The Starlink competitor in Europe Utelstat has quadrupled in the last 30 days as these small inferior product competitors are now viable again because they have an enormous increase in interest from nations and companies that don’t want to work with Starlink [00:56:33,834]: I mean this is so bad for Starlink [00:56:36,754]: You’re about to see a massive amount of capital going to other satellite and communications providers that quite frankly weren’t as competitive [00:56:47,014]: They weren’t as good [00:56:48,114]: No Starlink’s a superior product [00:56:50,014]: By the way Tesla was a superior product but he never he hasn’t improved it [00:56:53,974]: And again as I say over and over again a lot of people are banning Tesla because they’re repulsed by Elon Musk but they have not innovated their product [00:57:02,114]: If you have a great product and in this case it’s the repulsiveness and the danger if you go with him in this case and that’s why Europe is going to abandon him [00:57:10,874]: And so is Canada [00:57:11,934]: As Canada has it’s not just that [00:57:13,474]: And there’s going to be plenty of competitors in the Starlink business very soon [00:57:18,554]: Anyways there won’t be a press announcement but watch [00:57:20,954]: In 30 or 60 days Doja is going to be surprisingly not in the news [00:57:26,314]: Okay [00:57:26,694]: All right [00:57:27,054]: We’ll see [00:57:27,434]: I’d be interested [00:57:28,134]: That would be great [00:57:28,734]: And then they can go to Mars and that’ll be great for them to do that [00:57:31,794]: We want to hear from you [00:57:33,154]: Send us your questions about business tech or whatever’s on your mind [00:57:35,974]: Go to nymag com [00:57:37,074]: slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855 51 PIVOT [00:57:41,794]: Scott that is the show [00:57:44,914]: When are you going back to London [00:57:46,314]: Soon at some point [00:57:47,454]: I’m going away for the weekend and then I go back to London on Sunday [00:57:51,214]: How about you [00:57:51,934]: What are you up to [00:57:53,134]: I’m moving my mom to Washington as I told you [00:57:55,734]: I’m picking her up to Washington [00:57:56,734]: And then I will be in D C but then I’m actually going on a little vacation myself to Puerto Rico [00:58:02,434]: Where are you going [00:58:03,234]: Puerto Rico with three of my four children [00:58:06,974]: We’re going and we’re going to have a little L U K [00:58:09,674]: time and be in Puerto Rico which should be a state as far as I’m concerned [00:58:14,674]: I’m excited [00:58:15,594]: Amanda loves it and so we’re going to go there [00:58:18,094]: I’ve never been to Puerto Rico [00:58:19,394]: I love Puerto Rico [00:58:20,714]: It’s beautiful [00:58:21,334]: It’s a beautiful place [00:58:22,534]: It’s a really nice place and it’s in these United States and people should go there [00:58:28,034]: People should go to all the places that were sort of hit by hurricanes too [00:58:30,694]: So I like going to places that are in the United States and also deserving of our attention [00:58:38,614]: Anyway I’m not a big vacationer so I’m excited [00:58:41,354]: I’m going [00:58:41,374]: The new tariffs on champagne I feel bad [00:58:43,454]: I’m going to spend more time in St [00:58:44,994]: Barts just to be a good citizen [00:58:48,294]: Yeah OK [00:58:49,114]: All right [00:58:49,814]: All right Scott [00:58:50,374]: That’s the show [00:58:51,114]: We’ll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot [00:58:53,294]: Read us out [00:58:53,974]: Today’s show was produced by Laron Amen Zoe Marcus and Taylor Griffin [00:58:58,034]: Ernie and her Todd Engineer this episode [00:58:59,594]: Thanks also to Drew Burrows Mia Saverio and Dan Shulon [00:59:02,414]: Nishat Karwa is Vox Media’s executive producer of audio [00:59:04,834]: Make sure you subscribe to the show for every listening podcast [00:59:08,014]: Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media [00:59:10,414]: You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag com slash pod [00:59:13,854]: We’ll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business [00:59:17,634]: Cara have a great time moving [00:59:20,234]: LuckyTranscribe your media with TRNSCRB.
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