In the wake of the last election, the Democratic Party has engaged in extensive introspection, grappling with why their candidate failed to secure a victory against Donald Trump. The analysis presented in the recent episode of ‘The Ezra Klein Show’ sheds light on evolving theories backed by an influx of data that emerged in the months following the election. This blog post aims to dissect and fact-check the key assertions made in the discussion, highlighting the multifaceted elements that contributed to the electoral outcome, as well as how these insights can inform the Democratic Party’s future strategies. As we explore the nuances of this critical conversation, we will separate fact from speculation, ensuring a clear understanding of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for Democrats. Join us as we delve into the facts behind the narrative and what they mean for the political landscape moving forward.

Find a fact check of this transcript on CheckForFacts

Transcript:

[00:00:00,000]: I’ve been spending some time recently with top Democrats as they think about how to rebuild after the 2024 loss

[00:00:08,220]: And I’ll say that in the 20 some years I’ve been covering politics I have never heard them so confused

[00:00:14,000]: America is back

[00:00:19,940]: How could they have possibly lost this election to this person

[00:00:24,500]: But also how is the Democratic Party weakening so much among groups whose strength whose support it once took for granted

[00:00:32,840]: Young voters non white voters working class voters

[00:00:37,619]: What does it mean that the Democratic Party is losing what was once its base its reliable base

[00:00:44,979]: Someone whose analysis on this I’ve come to respect over the years is David Shore

[00:00:48,720]: David Shore is the head of data science at Bluer’s Research which is a big Democratic consulting firm

[00:00:54,319]: So first this is a big table of numbers

[00:00:57,180]: It does a huge amount of political surveying and interpretation of data and testing of And he’s gotten a lot of things right before other people did including that educational polarization was becoming the central fault line for American democracy

[00:01:13,440]: And so when I saw Shore recently and he began walking me through some of his slides some of the ways he was interpreting the 2024 election and trying to help people see what had happened my first thought was this would be worth doing in public rather than this being a thing that Democrats are debating in backrooms with each other

[00:01:32,800]: What if we did this in public

[00:01:34,419]: And so this episode is a bit of an experiment

[00:01:36,760]: He’s walking me through this presentation and I am interrogating it

[00:01:40,620]: But I found this really really helpful

[00:01:43,040]: I don’t necessarily have every conclusion David does but I think it is a good place to begin

[00:01:48,199]: And there is then a lot that can follow from having this conversation

[00:01:52,879]: As always my email Ezra Klein Show at NYTimes com

[00:02:02,279]: David Shore welcome to the show

[00:02:04,459]: Excited to be here

[00:02:04,980]: So what do you do

[00:02:07,300]: And why should I trust the data you’re about to show us here

[00:02:11,380]: I’m glad I’m glad you asked

[00:02:13,119]: I’m the co founder of a research firm called Blue Rose Research

[00:02:17,339]: You know we did 26 million interviews last year

[00:02:20,440]: And we have a team of about 45 people machine learning engineers software engineers from companies like Google

[00:02:26,020]: And you know we’ve done a lot of work to try to figure out what actually happened last year

[00:02:30,220]: A lot of liberals I know feel really burnt by survey data

[00:02:35,899]: There’s a sense that nobody picks up the phone

[00:02:38,699]: How are you surveying these older people if you’re doing it online

[00:02:43,339]: Putting aside the fact that you conducted a lot of surveys why are you confident those surveys reflect reality

[00:02:50,919]: The fundamental problem with survey research is just that people who answer surveys are really weird

[00:02:58,080]: There’s kind of two ways that you can try to fix that

[00:03:00,899]: You know one is that you could try to get a normal representative set of people

[00:03:05,279]: That’s just impossible in today’s day and age

[00:03:07,820]: And the other is that you can just try to collect a lot of information so that you can you know adjust for how weird they are

[00:03:13,720]: You know the reason I feel fairly confident about this is just you know in our work every time we make any change you know to any part of our system you know we go back and back test and see how it affects accuracy across every other you know every other election that we’ve ever surveyed

[00:03:27,880]: We can’t be fully confident about any particular thing that we say

[00:03:32,100]: A lot of the data isn’t back yet

[00:03:33,539]: But I think that there’s enough data to tell a coherent story

[00:03:36,500]: You know there’s the 26 million survey respondents of 8 million unique people

[00:03:40,699]: There’s precinct and county level election results

[00:03:43,059]: We’re also going to try to tie together all of the external data that other people have done

[00:03:49,240]: And you know what I’ll say about this election is that our forecast this cycle were very accurate

[00:03:54,080]: You know our overall error was about a third of a percent nationally

[00:03:58,199]: And I think that you know a lot of the most of the things that we thought would happen did bear out

[00:04:04,520]: And you know just I do want to spend a second to answer you know something that you had asked a second ago which is just like why look at survey data

[00:04:11,880]: I think that you know super politically engaged people are overrepresented at every single step of the political process

[00:04:18,079]: You know they’re more likely to run for office

[00:04:21,380]: They’re more likely to work in campaigns and journalism

[00:04:23,399]: They’re more likely to you know listen to podcasts like this one

[00:04:26,820]: And I think that they’re really the only point other than election day when regular people get a say is in polls

[00:04:35,320]: And so I think there isn’t really any democratic alternative you know to trying to listen to the people and hear what they have to say

[00:04:42,720]: So I take that point

[00:04:43,540]: I always think it is good to remind me and everybody who listens to the show that they are weird

[00:04:50,320]: And if their intuitions about politics were shared politics would not look the way it does at all

[00:04:58,100]: Right

[00:04:58,619]: If the voting population were Ezra Klein Joe listeners and people they know then elections end up very differently

[00:05:05,859]: Right

[00:05:06,440]: So I take your point on survey data

[00:05:08,559]: So where do we begin

[00:05:10,019]: All right

[00:05:10,380]: So first you know I’m just going to start with this slide over here that just looks at support for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 in 2020 and 2024 by race and ideology

[00:05:23,519]: In 2016 Democrats got 81 percent of Hispanic moderates

[00:05:28,880]: And in 2024 Democrats got 58 percent of Hispanic moderates

[00:05:33,019]: That’s only about 7 percent more than the 52 percent that they got of white moderates

[00:05:38,100]: The main story with respect to this is just a continuation of the trends that we saw four years ago

[00:05:44,000]: Throughout the entire Trump campaign we’ve seen this racial depolarization

[00:05:48,660]: The thing I find most surprising here is you look at white voters liberal moderate and conservative

[00:05:53,980]: And at least in this data from 2016 to 2024 there is a zero percent swing in any of them because there are all these things that if you go back to the debates we’re having about Donald Trump then it is the return and resurgence of a coalition trying to protect white power in this country

[00:06:12,600]: And I wrote things about this

[00:06:14,260]: I think there’s good reason to believe that

[00:06:16,579]: Even if that was part of the intention then that does not appear in the results

[00:06:22,179]: Democrats lose a modest amount of support among black voters in those years

[00:06:27,619]: They lose a huge amount of support among Hispanic voters and a kind of significant amount among Asian voters

[00:06:34,000]: Why do you think that is

[00:06:36,059]: I think that a lot of political analysis in America has been really centered around viewing everything through a very America centric lens because there’s this story in American politics

[00:06:50,880]: If you want to understand 20th century American politics then the big story is that there was this giant Southern realignment in 1964

[00:06:59,260]: Driven by the Civil Rights Act

[00:07:00,239]: Yeah driven by the Civil Rights Act

[00:07:01,980]: And that carried forward

[00:07:04,279]: It took a really long time for that to really work its way through down ballot

[00:07:08,619]: And so I think it was really tempting for American political scientists and kind of a lot of the more detail oriented American political pundits to just kind of see everything

[00:07:18,739]: People who wrote books like Why We’re Polarized for instance

[00:07:20,720]: Yeah exactly

[00:07:21,200]: Just to see everything through this transformation

[00:07:24,359]: Thomas Piketty actually recently wrote a great book about this thing I’m about to talk about

[00:07:28,380]: But I think the most important trend politically of the last 30 to 40 years both here and in every other country in the world at least Western country that has elections has been this story of education polarization

[00:07:40,160]: You know that basically everywhere we’ve seen highly educated people move to the left and you know working class people move to the right

[00:07:50,019]: I think a lot of people’s analytical error when looking at Trump is that they saw Trump as this kind of reincarnation of you know the 1960s of like George Wallace or something when really I think he was representing this global trend

[00:08:03,440]: You have a bunch of other countries

[00:08:04,559]: You have Marine Le Pen in France

[00:08:06,500]: You have you know the AFD in Germany

[00:08:08,459]: And I think that you know people missed that you know there was kind of a broader global appeal this kind of polarization on values

[00:08:15,779]: The other thing that I find interesting here is the shift in voters who self describe as conservative

[00:08:20,299]: Right

[00:08:20,899]: There’s no shift in white self described conservative voters between 2016 and 2024

[00:08:26,320]: But Democrats are winning 85 percent of black conservatives in 2016 but only 77 percent in 2024

[00:08:33,859]: They’re winning 34 percent of conservative Hispanics in 2016

[00:08:39,000]: That falls by half to 17 percent in 2024

[00:08:42,880]: They’re winning 28 percent of conservative Asians in 2016

[00:08:46,859]: That falls to 20 percent in 2024

[00:08:49,760]: So it’s always a little bit weird for somebody who is self described conservative to be voting for Democrats who are quite a liberal party now

[00:08:57,739]: But what we’re seeing among nonwhite voters is people voting more their ideology

[00:09:02,299]: And less their ethnic group

[00:09:03,940]: That’s exactly right

[00:09:05,200]: And you know I would just say I think you know this shouldn’t be that surprising

[00:09:08,719]: I think now you know we identify the Democratic Party as straightforwardly liberal

[00:09:13,700]: You know the Democratic Party used to be a coalition between liberals and moderates and conservatives

[00:09:18,400]: And as liberals kind of became the dominant coalition partner it makes sense you know that the conservatives and moderates in our coalition who were disproportionately nonwhite given that this ideological polarization happened you know among whites 20 years ago or 30 years ago that you would start to see this

[00:09:36,359]: All right

[00:09:36,520]: Let’s move to slide two here

[00:09:38,299]: All right

[00:09:38,940]: But there were some new trends this cycle

[00:09:42,780]: So I can hear you going to presentation voice

[00:09:45,119]: Great great great

[00:09:46,359]: You’re good

[00:09:46,919]: Yeah

[00:09:47,239]: So this slide over here has what I think is probably the most important story of this cycle

[00:09:53,599]: So I have two graphs over here

[00:09:55,619]: You know the first breaks down 2024 support by whether or not you had voted in 2020

[00:10:02,599]: And so this is New York Times data from you know Nate Cohn’s upshot polling probably the highest quality public pollster in America

[00:10:09,739]: And what you can see here is just that in 2020 in their data people who didn’t vote if they had voted would have been a little bit more democratic than the country overall

[00:10:19,840]: But over the next four years people who didn’t vote went from being a somewhat democratic leaning group to a group that Trump won by double digits

[00:10:28,940]: So the second graph here we have for every precinct we look at what percentage of people voted in 2022

[00:10:34,539]: And then we just look at what was the change in Democratic vote share from 2020 to 2024

[00:10:40,299]: And so what you could see here is that for the lowest turnout precincts you know Trump increased his vote share by something like 6

[00:10:47,559]: While for the highest turnout precincts Harris actually increased her support

[00:10:52,500]: And you know that’s really the story of this election is that you know people who follow news really closely who get their news from traditional media who like say that politics is an important part of their identity they became more Democratic in absolute terms

[00:11:06,320]: But for people who don’t follow politics closely at all they just became a lot more Republican

[00:11:11,460]: It’s interesting because I obviously get a lot of incoming from people who would like the New York Times to cover Donald Trump differently

[00:11:19,559]: And some of those arguments I agree with some of them I don’t

[00:11:22,280]: Right

[00:11:23,000]: That’s what I always think about with that though is that if your lever is New York Times headlines you’re not affecting the voters you are losing

[00:11:37,640]: And the question Democrats are facing when you look at how badly they lost less politically engaged voters is how do you change the views of voters you don’t really have a good way to reach

[00:11:51,440]: Yeah

[00:11:52,580]: And I mean that’s 100 percent right

[00:11:54,760]: And you know I just want to stress that this is a new problem

[00:11:57,599]: You know this this problem didn’t exist four years ago

[00:11:59,940]: And you know it’s not just that New York Times readers are more liberal than the overall population

[00:12:05,280]: That’s definitely true

[00:12:06,340]: It’s that they’re more liberal than they were four years ago even though the country went the other way

[00:12:11,539]: And so there’s this great political divergence you know between people who consume all the news sources that we know about and read about versus the people who don’t

[00:12:21,239]: And so as a result of these changes we’re really this is really reversed

[00:12:28,400]: A decades long truism in American politics where for the longest time Democrats have said and it’s been true that if everybody votes we win

[00:12:36,359]: And the higher turnout is good for Democrats

[00:12:38,400]: And this is the first cycle where that definitively became the opposite of true

[00:12:42,859]: Here I just have some numbers

[00:12:44,940]: If only people who had voted in 2022 had voted Harris would have won the popular vote

[00:12:49,539]: And also the Electoral College fairly easily

[00:12:52,479]: While if everyone had voted you know Trump would have won the popular vote by nearly five points

[00:12:58,200]: Generally what you see now is that every measure of socioeconomic status and political engagement is just monotonically related to your chance of liking Trump

[00:13:08,000]: What is monotonically related

[00:13:09,219]: Oh yeah

[00:13:09,440]: Sorry

[00:13:09,820]: Just just that

[00:13:11,140]: This is why Democrats can’t win

[00:13:12,780]: That’s exactly right

[00:13:14,000]: I’m the problem

[00:13:15,119]: But it’s basically just that the more even the lowest you know political engagement categories the lowest education categories you know the poorer the lower socioeconomic status the less engaged you are in politics

[00:13:27,280]: Now the more Trumpy you are

[00:13:28,880]: And that just wasn’t true four years ago

[00:13:30,700]: So here’s something that I’ve heard from a lot of Democrats and very good election analysts which seems to be in some tension here

[00:13:39,940]: There is an argument that what happened to Democrats between 2020 and 2024 is their voters stayed home

[00:13:46,500]: And so what happened here was a shrinking of the electorate

[00:13:52,479]: They disproportionately sliced off what Democrats were calling the anti MAGA coalition

[00:13:58,739]: How does that idea that Democrats didn’t lose to Trump they lost to the couch sit with you

[00:14:03,219]: It’s just not empirically correct I would say

[00:14:06,140]: Generally turnout and support go in the same direction for the basic reason that there are a lot of people who didn’t feel ready to vote for a Republican but were still mad at the Democratic Party

[00:14:17,500]: And so they stayed home in response

[00:14:19,080]: And if you just look at the demographics of who these people are who voted for Biden last time and stayed home this time they’re generally low education

[00:14:29,080]: They’re fairly politically disengaged

[00:14:31,059]: They’re much less likely to watch shows like MSNBC and more likely to watch shows like Fox

[00:14:35,919]: And they frankly just look a lot like the voters who trended away from us

[00:14:40,239]: So if you had forced them out to vote they may have just voted for Donald Trump

[00:14:44,460]: Right

[00:14:44,780]: Exactly

[00:14:45,340]: And that does show up

[00:14:46,760]: You know if you look at African Americans for example African Americans who didn’t vote were much more likely to say that they supported Trump than the ones that did this cycle

[00:14:56,320]: It’s true that overall turnout fell in a lot of the country but in the battleground states that actually decided the presidential election turnout was roughly where it was from four years ago

[00:15:07,340]: And it just is clear as day that a bunch of people changed their mind

[00:15:12,820]: How much is this just inflation

[00:15:16,340]: You are dealing with people who they’re not paying a lot of attention to politics

[00:15:19,679]: They do pay attention and feel prices in the state of the country

[00:15:25,119]: You had a massive inflationary period

[00:15:28,679]: And the pest and being pissed about inflation move them against the incumbent party which they held responsible in this country as in other countries for inflation

[00:15:38,200]: I think that that’s a very reasonable explanation

[00:15:40,859]: You know it makes sense that the people who care the least about politics are going to be the most mad about prices going up

[00:15:46,059]: And there’s a lot of academic reasons to think that makes sense

[00:15:48,580]: I’m not making any claims you know per se about why this happened though I think inflation makes sense

[00:15:54,500]: If you actually poll these non voters and you know ask them what they care the most about they’ll tell you inflation

[00:16:01,020]: I’ll get to this later but that’s what every single subgroup of the electorate cared the most about by overwhelming margins

[00:16:06,179]: And so I don’t think it’s necessarily true that we should hold voters back

[00:16:11,099]: But you know I’ll talk about this later

[00:16:12,580]: There have been dramatic shifts in the media consumption habits of these people in the last four years

[00:16:18,039]: And so it may be a harder problem

[00:16:19,780]: Before we discuss that I think it’s worth talking to the next chart too because it’s getting at the same question in a different way

[00:16:25,880]: So here you know we have a plot that we just took from The Economist

[00:16:30,780]: And in the bottom we just have foreign born population

[00:16:33,640]: And on the top we just have increase in Republican vote share

[00:16:40,280]: This is by county

[00:16:42,440]: There’s a very clear correlation between how many immigrants there were in a county and how much it increased by Donald Trump you know towards Trump

[00:16:50,080]: You can see in counties like you know Queens New York or Miami Dade in Florida Trump increased his vote share percentage by 10 percentage points which is just crazy

[00:16:59,059]: And so when we go and we look at the precinct election results you know what we see is that in immigrant communities of all races you know our best guess is that immigrants went from being a Biden plus 27 group in 2020 to a group that Trump narrowly won in 2024

[00:17:17,780]: You know this this group you know of naturalized citizens is roughly 10 percent of the electorate

[00:17:22,540]: So that means that immigrants swung much much much more than the median of the electorate

[00:17:29,839]: That’s exactly right

[00:17:30,699]: You know our estimates and it’s really hard to know exactly what happened

[00:17:33,760]: You know it turns out that working class immigrants do not answer a ton of surveys

[00:17:37,599]: But our our best guess is that they swung 23 percentage points against the Democratic Party

[00:17:42,660]: And so the crazy thing is if you if you believe this I mean you know there’s some uncertainty but I think some version of this is probably true

[00:17:49,939]: Then something like half of the net votes that Trump received came from immigrants

[00:17:54,439]: And you know this wasn’t efficient for him

[00:17:57,540]: It’s one of the big reasons you know why the bias of the Electoral College went down by so much this cycle because if you look in the battleground states you know things swung toward Trump maybe by like half a percentage point and that was enough for him to win or you know one percentage point

[00:18:12,300]: But if you look at like the four biggest states where immigrants are concentrated you know New York California Texas you know Trump did extremely well

[00:18:24,219]: And so it wasn’t very efficient for him

[00:18:26,040]: But in terms of people changing their mind it was a massive percentage of the story

[00:18:29,619]: So this gets to another way that I think the data has proven conventional wisdom from at least 2020 wrong

[00:18:36,939]: So 2020 you have an election that Joe Biden wins

[00:18:40,739]: He wins by less than the polling says he will win by

[00:18:43,479]: And one reason he wins by less than the polling says he’ll win by is that Donald Trump does much better with Hispanic and Asian voters than he was expected to

[00:18:52,060]: And I remember seeing you know pretty strong research afterwards and talking to people who study the Hispanic vote who are saying well in 2020 the pandemic really was about immigration

[00:19:05,939]: In 2020 it was about the pandemic

[00:19:07,880]: It was about lockdowns

[00:19:08,939]: It was about the economy

[00:19:10,760]: And so Hispanic voters who were driven off of Trump by his border talk in 2016 were more likely to vote for him in 2020

[00:19:19,660]: But that was weird right

[00:19:21,060]: It was the pandemic in a way moderating Donald Trump’s appeal

[00:19:25,199]: 2024 Trump runs I would say to the right of where he was on the border in 2016 right

[00:19:30,359]: We’re talking mass deportations

[00:19:32,000]: We’re talking more than a wall

[00:19:34,760]: And Trump does better among immigrant groups than he really ever has before

[00:19:41,060]: So the Democratic belief that when the topic turned back to immigration you would see some of that polarization around Trump return and that he would be harmed in immigrant communities did not occur

[00:19:55,079]: No

[00:19:56,459]: Inflation probably played some kind of role here though you know the flip side is if you look in the UK it happened the same year

[00:20:03,199]: It’s just that the incumbent was right wing instead of left wing

[00:20:06,060]: And you know their labor did also you know drop with you know black and Asian and Hindu voters

[00:20:11,579]: And so I think that I think that there’s some kind of globalized right wing phenomena that’s It’s hard to know exactly what but I agree completely

[00:20:21,579]: Now I just move on to the next slide

[00:20:23,739]: Here we have Harris support by single age year by race and gender

[00:20:28,303]: I found this chart a little hard to read so can you describe to me what’s happening here

[00:20:33,343]: Sure

[00:20:33,903]: So we have four lines on this chart and the x axis is age and the y axis is our estimate for what fraction of people in that group voted for Kamala Harris in 2024

[00:20:45,943]: And we have a light blue line for women of color

[00:20:50,643]: We have a dark blue dash line for men of color

[00:20:54,083]: We have like a light pink solid line for white women and then a dash line for white men

[00:21:00,783]: And one of the things you can see here is if you just look at 18 year olds 18 year old women of color are the only of the four that actually you know voted that Harris won

[00:21:10,843]: Trump narrowly won you know non white men

[00:21:14,443]: So I do find this part of this chart shocking

[00:21:18,443]: I sometimes talk about narrative violations and I think if we knew anything about Donald Trump eight years ago it’s that young people did not like him

[00:21:26,763]: And Republicans are maybe throwing away young people for generations in order to run up their margins among seniors

[00:21:33,143]: But if you look at this chart among white men who are 75 years old supported Kamala Harris at a significantly higher rate than white men who are 20 years old

[00:21:45,543]: That’s exactly right

[00:21:46,963]: That’s a real shift

[00:21:49,263]: It is a real shift

[00:21:50,243]: This is the thing I am the most shocked by I think in the last four years is that young people have gone from being the most progressive generation since the baby boomers and maybe in some ways more so to becoming potentially the most conservative you know generation that we’ve experienced maybe in 50 to 60 years

[00:22:10,083]: And so you know the next chart you know just to describe it

[00:22:13,543]: This chart in some ways convinced me to do this podcast

[00:22:15,623]: Oh thank you

[00:22:16,523]: This chart shocks me

[00:22:17,843]: I agree

[00:22:18,403]: This is to me the scariest chart in this entire presentation

[00:22:22,063]: And again you know something I’m very surprised by

[00:22:24,583]: On the bottom we have age

[00:22:26,603]: And at the top we have the gender gap and support between women and men and you know for support for Kamala Harris

[00:22:33,103]: And so what you can see is that you know for voters over 30 the gender gap was fairly stable at around 10 which is roughly where it’s been in American politics

[00:22:44,043]: And voters over 75 it’s even lower

[00:22:46,123]: That’s right

[00:22:46,503]: It’s a fairly low gender gap among older voters

[00:22:49,323]: Yeah I think that a lot of people you know underestimate how recent the gender gap is

[00:22:54,743]: You know historically Republicans did better with women than men

[00:22:57,683]: And you know this was true across most of the West that center left parties did better with men than women

[00:23:03,003]: And you know that’s changed in the United States in the Clinton era

[00:23:06,503]: But you know it’s been stable since then

[00:23:09,563]: But what’s crazy is if you look at people who are under the age of 30 the gender gap has exploded

[00:23:16,063]: If you look at 18 year olds 18 year old men were 23 percentage points more likely to support you know Donald Trump than 18 year old women which is just completely unprecedented in American politics

[00:23:27,963]: Is that abortion

[00:23:29,083]: I think it’s too early to say exactly what the cause is

[00:23:32,563]: What’s interesting is that this is happening in other countries as well

[00:23:36,523]: Obviously different countries have different political systems but I’ve seen similar patterns in Canada in the UK in Norway

[00:23:43,803]: There’s a lot of research you know to do here but it’s still very striking

[00:23:48,063]: A lot of people talk about the Democratic young men problem and I think it’s still somehow underrated because the actual numbers are just a lot worse than people think

[00:23:57,383]: The huge gender gap implies to me it’s not just inflation

[00:24:01,943]: Women pay high prices for eggs too

[00:24:04,203]: Right

[00:24:04,583]: And I’ll say if you look at the you know the UK election last year you know the Labour Party did a lot better you know because the incumbent party was unpopular

[00:24:15,823]: But I think what’s interesting is that if you look at it by age the Conservatives actually increased their vote share among 18 to 24 year old voters I think by 2 or 3 percent even though they only did you know even though they did 8 or 9 percent worse overall

[00:24:29,343]: And so I do think it’s not just inflation

[00:24:32,423]: It’s not just backlash to the incumbent governments though I’m sure that’s part of the story too

[00:24:37,803]: I feel like the story you’re implying that you believe here is that this is polarization among young men and women driven by men who are in high school who are young who are online practically online during COVID as Me Too is cresting at the time of as Jordan Peterson is a big figure Andrew Tate is rising you have what now gets called the manosphere

[00:25:05,463]: But there is a sense the Democratic Party is becoming much more pro women party and in some ways sort of anti young men

[00:25:16,183]: And that that just had a huge effect on young men’s political opinions

[00:25:22,463]: Well you know I do want to just stress that this is this seems to be a global phenomena

[00:25:28,303]: And I don’t want to over center the particular things the Democratic Party has done rather than you know the broader cultural

[00:25:35,523]: Peterson and Tate are global figures

[00:25:36,703]: No exactly

[00:25:37,203]: I agree with that

[00:25:38,043]: You know what I’ll say is I just think that you know we’re in the midst of a big cultural change that I think that you know people are really underestimating

[00:25:47,283]: You know if you look at Zoomers you know I don’t have slides on this but there’s just a lot of really interesting ways that they’re very different in the data

[00:25:53,963]: You know they’re much more likely than previous generations to say that making money is extremely important to them

[00:25:58,783]: You know they are a lot more

[00:26:01,123]: If you look at their psychographic data you know they have a lot higher levels of you know psychometric neuroticism and anxiety than the people before them

[00:26:09,263]: If I was going to speculate you know I think that you know phones and social media have a lot to do with this

[00:26:15,163]: I think it’s very plausible to me

[00:26:17,203]: And I’ve heard people describe that you know these kids grew up looking at social media influencers as role models

[00:26:23,823]: But all I can say is that I think that young people today seem to have fairly different values than they did 10 years ago

[00:26:31,963]: How that translates into partisan politics depends on what the parties do

[00:26:35,363]: But I think it’s a big shift

[00:26:36,783]: It seems plausible to me that social media online culture are splitting the media that young men and women get

[00:26:49,803]: Right

[00:26:50,203]: That if you are young and online and a 23 year old man who is interested in UFC you’re being driven into a very intensely male online world whereas if you are 23 years old and female and you are interested in things that the YouTube algorithm codes that way you are not entering that world

[00:27:12,943]: You’re actually entering the opposite world

[00:27:14,163]: You’re seeing Brene Brown right

[00:27:15,303]: You’re seeing these other things

[00:27:16,523]: Right

[00:27:16,983]: The capacity to be in highly gendered media worlds is really different in 2024 than it was in 2004

[00:27:26,583]: And that’s true worldwide

[00:27:29,203]: Yeah I agree with that entirely

[00:27:31,703]: Online communities are way more gender segregated than offline communities are

[00:27:36,203]: And so in that respect it should be unsurprising that suddenly shifting a bunch of young people’s social worlds to be entirely online all at once you know cause the political situation to change

[00:27:47,363]: So Democrats are getting destroyed now among young voters

[00:27:50,523]: That’s right

[00:27:51,083]: I do think there was even as the idea of the rising demographic Democratic majority had become a little discredited in 2016 and 2020 I do think Democrats believed that these young voters were eventually going to save them that this was a last gasp of something that if Donald Trump couldn’t run these numbers up among seniors and you had millennials really coming into the voting power Gen Z coming in that was going to be the end of this Republican party

[00:28:16,763]: Right

[00:28:17,223]: And that just completely false

[00:28:19,823]: Yeah

[00:28:20,183]: I mean it might be the beginning of this Republican party

[00:28:22,543]: You know I have to admit I was I was one of those liberals four years ago and it seems like I was wrong

[00:28:27,383]: You know the future has a way of surprising us

[00:28:30,403]: You know the flip side of this is that Democrats made a bunch of gains among old voters and I’m sure that they’ll be happy that they did two years from now you know two years from now in the midterms

[00:28:39,703]: But if we don’t do anything about this and this problem could could become very bad

[00:28:44,823]: So right here I have this slide this is very simple

[00:28:48,103]: This is just showing exit poll favorability for the Democratic and Republican presidential candidate in 2020 and 2024

[00:28:56,003]: And you know I think what’s it’s just really important to ground any discussion of the election with the simple fact that Donald Trump was just as unpopular on election day last year as he was in 2020 and maybe even a little bit more unpopular

[00:29:10,583]: But what changed is that Biden had a net favorability rating of plus six and Harris had a net favorability rating of minus six

[00:29:20,783]: So I want to play Mike Donilon who was chief strategist to Joe Biden was recently at a forum and he made an argument that I think you at least could read this chart as backing up which is that you know Biden was more popular in 2020 than than Harris was in 2024

[00:29:37,983]: Maybe the Biden Harris switch was a mistake

[00:29:41,503]: Here’s Donilon

[00:29:42,843]: Look I think folks who had this view believed that you know that Biden was going to lose

[00:29:47,143]: He didn’t have any more

[00:29:48,883]: He had to get out

[00:29:49,623]: That was the best thing for the party that I understand

[00:29:51,723]: That’s their view

[00:29:53,283]: Okay

[00:29:53,683]: You know I have a view too right

[00:29:55,803]: And my view is that really I think I think it was insane

[00:29:59,743]: I think the party lost its mind

[00:30:02,003]: Did the party lose its mind

[00:30:03,743]: And that’s why we see this chart

[00:30:05,763]: I think the best explanation for why Kamala Harris was unpopular is in this next slide which is just that the Biden administration was extremely unpopular for most of its term

[00:30:18,023]: You know they saw their approval fall off a cliff after Afghanistan and then it dropped further as inflation and immigration and the budget fights all happened in the fall

[00:30:26,603]: And then it never recovered

[00:30:28,503]: And you know I think the big challenge you know that Kamala Harris faced was just that she was seen as too close you know to the Biden administration which most voters considered to be a failure

[00:30:42,583]: And so yeah I don’t know

[00:30:43,823]: I mean you can never tell

[00:30:45,483]: You can never tell a counterfactual world but I think that Biden would have had an even harder time distinguishing himself from his record

[00:30:51,403]: Yeah it’d be even harder for Joe Biden to run away from Joe Biden I guess

[00:30:55,243]: Looking at this chart it looks like by January a plus 20 net disapproval

[00:31:01,403]: Maybe that was a little bit smaller in November but it had been widening

[00:31:08,163]: I mean you go back to the beginning of 2023 it was narrower

[00:31:11,723]: People were really pissed at the Biden administration by the time we hit the election

[00:31:20,763]: Yeah I think that that’s you know the big salient fact about this election

[00:31:25,623]: And you know I don’t think it was impossible you know for Kamala to do better

[00:31:31,383]: This was a winnable election at the end of the day

[00:31:33,383]: It was very close

[00:31:34,363]: But this was the big thing you know that was weighing Democrats down

[00:31:38,223]: And so you know I just want to move forward you know just in terms of why you know in our polling the way that we measure issue importance is we show people two random issues and we just ask which of these issue problems is more important you know to the you know to the problems facing the country today

[00:31:54,023]: And you know people pick and you know when you model it out whenever you have cost of living or inflation put up against something else eight or nine out of ten people picked that cost of living and inflation was more important

[00:32:07,203]: And so I think this just really shows how dominant this was

[00:32:11,363]: You know voters were really angry about the Biden administration’s handling of inflation of the budget deficit of you know crime of immigration

[00:32:18,823]: And I think that you know that that was just a hard thing to escape

[00:32:22,023]: Well you just ticked off a bunch of issues

[00:32:23,623]: But what’s interesting to me about this particular bit of data is it shows that cost of living and inflation beat almost anything you put in front of it

[00:32:30,683]: So what I find notable here I mean yeah cost of living was bigger than student debt

[00:32:35,983]: Fair

[00:32:37,023]: But you tested against immigration and border security and the share of voters saying cost of living or inflation was more important was about 70 percent

[00:32:45,303]: That’s right

[00:32:45,823]: You tested it against abortion

[00:32:47,983]: Their cost of living or inflation was more important to about 80 percent of voters

[00:32:52,023]: Against environment and climate change 84 percent of voters picked cost of living inflation

[00:32:57,763]: One thing that the Biden people always believed was that this election would be very heavily about democracy itself

[00:33:04,443]: I mean this was something that I was told by top Biden strategists going way back

[00:33:08,023]: I don’t see democracy on here

[00:33:09,663]: January 6th the stability of the system

[00:33:12,143]: Did you test that too

[00:33:13,383]: No we did

[00:33:14,403]: And you know later we have a slide on I mean I’m just going to scroll down to it now since you brought it up

[00:33:19,163]: But you know we did a survey where we just asked people you know what’s more important right now

[00:33:24,163]: You know preserving America’s institutions or you know delivering change that improves people’s lives

[00:33:30,043]: And it was 78 to 18 you know delivering change that improves people’s lives

[00:33:35,223]: And I’m just going to scroll up

[00:33:37,143]: But I think what’s you know what’s what’s really hard

[00:33:39,963]: I think this is this has been one of the hardest things about you know being a political consultant in the last eight years is that you know every day Trump does terrible things that I think are objectively awful and scary

[00:33:51,363]: And it pissed me off

[00:33:52,863]: You know I’m going to prosecute my enemies or you know whatever

[00:33:56,403]: And then we do a bunch of tests and voters really don’t want to hear about it you know from us

[00:34:02,843]: I think that Trump would do better if he didn’t do that stuff for sure

[00:34:07,363]: But I think that you know voters want us to talk about you know concrete ways that they’re going to improve people’s lives

[00:34:14,603]: There is an argument you hear from many Democrats

[00:34:16,643]: There was no problem here except for inflation

[00:34:20,303]: That in fact if you compare Democratic vote outcomes with incumbent parties in many other countries Democrats did better than incumbent parties in other countries did

[00:34:29,243]: So you look at the Conservatives in the UK they had a much worse election result

[00:34:34,343]: You look at what happened to the ruling coalition in France

[00:34:38,323]: Some ways like Democrats were doing fine

[00:34:40,223]: They had a fairly modest drop in support

[00:34:43,183]: And it’s just a shame for them that inflation happened on their watch that if Donald Trump had won the 2020 election inflation would have happened on his watch completely discrediting him and his administration

[00:34:55,923]: And that would have been the end of them

[00:34:58,283]: How do you distinguish between there is a broad structural problem the Democratic Party is facing that needs to think about for 2028

[00:35:05,903]: And there’s actually no problem here

[00:35:07,903]: But I think you know I just want to go over to the next slide

[00:35:10,263]: When we measure issues you know we measure how important voters find it

[00:35:13,883]: And that’s what we have in the bottom here

[00:35:15,283]: And then we just measure do you trust Democrats or Republicans more on this issue

[00:35:20,623]: And you know what you see here is if you look at the top issues that voters care the most about cost of living the economy taxes and government spending you know the deficit foreign policy you know health care

[00:35:32,703]: Other than health care where Democrats have a narrow lead Republicans have massive trust advantages you know 15 points on all of the issues that voters care the most about

[00:35:42,863]: And so the story that I would tell in response to your question is that in this election voters trusted Republicans way more than Democrats on all of the most important issues but also bought into this idea that Donald Trump was a terrible person who couldn’t be trusted with power

[00:36:03,083]: And you know that that made the election be close

[00:36:05,663]: But four years from now Donald Trump will not be the nominee and maybe they’ll nominate somebody who’s just as terrible and just as unlikable

[00:36:13,723]: But if we don’t you know get out of this trust deficit I think that you know we’ll have a lot of problems

[00:36:18,763]: For people listening along this is a chart broken into quadrants

[00:36:22,743]: That’s right

[00:36:23,103]: And the top right quadrant is issues that are very important and issues where Democrats are more trusted

[00:36:32,163]: And it’s an untilled bit of farmland up there

[00:36:36,943]: That’s right

[00:36:37,123]: So there’s mental health which voters don’t rate that important but they do trust Democrats quite a bit more

[00:36:45,223]: They rate it higher than they rate though climate change and the environment and abortion which struck me as surprising

[00:36:50,783]: Mental seems like a like a much bigger deal on this than you typically than I think politics reflects on either side

[00:36:56,863]: Right

[00:36:58,403]: Their one bright spot is really health care

[00:37:00,403]: That’s right

[00:37:02,023]: That’s kind of it in terms of issues where it is quite important and they have a genuinely noticeable advantage

[00:37:11,643]: Yeah I think it’s just worth saying that four years ago the number one issue was COVID and health care

[00:37:17,563]: And those also were the issues that people trusted Democrats the most on

[00:37:20,703]: And so the strategy was really obvious you know just talk a lot about COVID and health care

[00:37:24,643]: But you know this time we had a much harder problem which was that the issues that people cared the most about for the most part voters didn’t trust us on

[00:37:35,223]: And the issues that people did trust us on you know climate change you know and reproductive rights probably the big ones voters just didn’t care very much about

[00:37:43,623]: And so that was just a very difficult strategic position

[00:37:46,363]: And it’s also one that was just very different than it was four years ago

[00:37:49,263]: I just want to tick off some issues voters ranked as important that they trusted Republicans on and then ask you a question about it

[00:37:55,703]: So they thought cost of living the economy inflation were very important had a lot more trust in Republicans

[00:38:01,583]: They thought national security and foreign policy were important trusted Republicans

[00:38:05,563]: Taxes government spending government debt trusted Republicans

[00:38:08,203]: Crime immigration trusted Republicans

[00:38:10,003]: Social security trusted Republicans

[00:38:11,863]: That seems like a bad one for Democrats

[00:38:13,983]: A political division they thought was important

[00:38:16,343]: They trusted Republicans a bit more on that in this data

[00:38:19,383]: If I looked over time right if I looked at 2016 and I looked at 2020 would I see on all of these that Republicans had advantages and Democrats were just winning on health care

[00:38:30,743]: How much of this is something flipping around as an incumbent penalty and sort of reaction to conditions in the country at that moment

[00:38:38,863]: And how much of it is a durable situation where Republicans have a trusted advantage where Democrats would have to act in a spectacular way over time to change voters impressions of them on that issue

[00:38:53,063]: You know what we saw in our data was that as the Biden administration became a lot more unpopular you know all of these things dropped a lot

[00:39:01,523]: So some of it was uniform shift

[00:39:03,283]: But I think that you know the last four years there were some things that structurally changed a lot

[00:39:08,123]: In every center left party in the world you know generally the left has its issues that it owns and the right has its issues that it owns

[00:39:14,203]: But usually the economy is pretty neutral

[00:39:17,003]: During the Trump administration the economy was it was fairly neutral

[00:39:20,363]: And in 2020 I think if you looked at this and even in 2021 it really didn’t look anything like this

[00:39:25,543]: Another really big shift was just that education has gone from being basically one of the best issues for Democrats to being something that’s basically neutral now

[00:39:34,303]: And you know we saw that you know in the Virginia gubernatorial election in 2021 we even saw it be an advantage for Republicans

[00:39:42,803]: And then you know the other big shift you know on the other side was that reproductive rights used to be a fairly neutral issue for Democrats

[00:39:50,063]: Like in general when you talked about it in the pre Dobbs era it wasn’t bad but it wasn’t something that changed a lot of votes

[00:39:57,543]: And immediately after Dobbs we saw party trust you know on reproductive rights shoot up

[00:40:01,983]: And so I think you know these numbers they do change

[00:40:05,503]: And this is you know one of the big messages I want to get through is just that you know the world has changed a lot in the last four years

[00:40:14,583]: It’s going to keep changing and we have to kind of adjust in response to what happens

[00:40:19,923]: All right

[00:40:20,383]: So this tell me what’s going on in this next slide because I also as I understand this is really very connected to the work you do specifically

[00:40:28,923]: Right

[00:40:29,283]: So what are you doing here

[00:40:30,603]: All right

[00:40:31,043]: So you know one of the big things that my firm does it’s probably our big biggest product is that we do randomized controlled trials on ads

[00:40:38,603]: This is something that both parties do

[00:40:39,863]: This is pretty standard

[00:40:41,023]: But the idea is that for a given ad you take a thousand people you split them into a treatment and control group

[00:40:47,143]: You know 500 people see the ad 500 people don’t

[00:40:49,523]: And then you survey them after and you see ask them who they’re voting for

[00:40:53,323]: And then the difference between treatment and control can be described as the causal effect of if you see this ad this is the effect it will have on your chance of voting for them

[00:41:01,483]: And so you know we tested you know on the order of I’d say probably like four or 5 000 Harris ads last cycle

[00:41:09,983]: And I just wanted to call out

[00:41:11,523]: You know these two ads that were in the top 1 of ads that we tested one is from Kamala Harris

[00:41:20,283]: I get it

[00:41:21,523]: The cost of rent groceries and utilities is too high

[00:41:24,783]: So here’s what we’re going to do about it

[00:41:26,603]: We will lower housing costs by building more homes and crack down on landlords who are charging too much

[00:41:32,923]: We will lower your food and grocery bills by going after price gougers who are keeping the cost of everyday goods too high

[00:41:40,003]: I’m Kamala Harris and I approve this message because you work hard for your paycheck

[00:41:45,563]: You should get to keep more of it

[00:41:47,223]: As president I’ll make that my top priority

[00:41:50,323]: So you know obviously there’s a lot for several parts of the Democratic coalition there

[00:41:55,243]: Another ad by Future Forward shows tax him for a national sales tax for the idea that Trump

[00:42:01,383]: Tax him being Trump

[00:42:02,523]: Yeah tax Trump

[00:42:03,143]: He fights for himself and his billionaire friends

[00:42:05,763]: He intends to enact a national sales tax the Trump tax that would raise prices on middle class families by 4 000 a year

[00:42:15,803]: Instead of a tax hike we will pass a middle class tax cut that will benefit more than 100 million Americans

[00:42:24,363]: FFPAC is responsible for the content of this ad

[00:42:27,043]: These were obviously the best ads in the campaign

[00:42:29,583]: And the point I just want to say is I think this reinforces the point that what voters cared the most about was the cost of living and that voters were really mad you know about the actual situation

[00:42:39,783]: And I think that Harris being able to you know in this ad acknowledging oh things are actually very bad

[00:42:45,403]: I don’t like this

[00:42:46,203]: I have a plan to fix this is part of what made it so effective

[00:42:50,243]: There is a view out there

[00:42:52,183]: I saw Jacobin had just done some research on this which is a socialist publication that at the beginning of the Harris campaign sprint I mean she was only the head of the Democratic ticket for three months

[00:43:05,003]: She was talking a lot about the economy

[00:43:07,683]: And that by the end she was talking a lot about democracy that there had been a change in the nature of the campaign the ads it was running how they were messaging

[00:43:16,223]: You know their big closing argument was at the ellipsis in Washington D C which is where the sort of January 6th riots in a way began that there was sort of phases of the Harris campaign

[00:43:26,863]: And the first one was more populist and the last one was more institutional

[00:43:31,003]: From what you saw was that true

[00:43:33,503]: I think that there was this big strategic question that Democrats faced and it wasn’t just the Harris campaign which is you know polling would tell them you should talk about the economy or voters care a lot about the cost of living

[00:43:46,003]: But you know it’s very hard one you know to get media attention on those things

[00:43:50,523]: And two you know I think that I think that Trump has done a good job of baiting us

[00:43:55,743]: You know I think what’s really interesting about a lot of the democracy and authoritarian stuff is you know just that how concerned you are by it really varies a lot by political engagement and by education

[00:44:06,903]: And the kind of people who set media decisions you know at you know at CNN or who work in politics are the kinds of people who are going to be much more concerned about it you know than working class folks are

[00:44:18,943]: And so you know I don’t know

[00:44:19,983]: I think that

[00:44:21,503]: But look there is a difference between the Harris campaign was running the optimal David Moore strategy in late October of 2024 and they were not

[00:44:32,303]: The Harris campaign had access Future Forward had access to all of this issue by issue polling

[00:44:38,523]: They had access to all this randomized ad testing

[00:44:42,283]: Did they run a heavily economic campaign and it didn’t work or did they not run a heavily economic campaign at the end and it didn’t work

[00:44:50,063]: Because look if they did the thing and it didn’t work then then maybe it just didn’t work

[00:44:56,763]: Did they not do it

[00:44:58,523]: Yeah I mean you know asking asking the hard questions

[00:45:02,463]: But yeah I think you know obviously I think that democratic messaging last cycle was not economically focused enough

[00:45:10,063]: I think that focus too much on you know narratives of defending institutions defending democracy

[00:45:17,683]: And I think it’s just very easy you know for folks to fall into that trap

[00:45:21,963]: But I really don’t

[00:45:23,303]: But why

[00:45:23,963]: Right

[00:45:24,223]: If they did that

[00:45:25,563]: And I heard this from different people

[00:45:28,083]: Like you know David Plouffe is a smart guy

[00:45:29,723]: I’m not telling you to

[00:45:30,503]: I’m not asking you to critique David Plouffe

[00:45:31,743]: I can watch you getting physically uncomfortable as I as I harm your business here

[00:45:35,403]: Right right right

[00:45:37,763]: But these people all wanted to win

[00:45:39,823]: They really did

[00:45:40,983]: Like every single one of them

[00:45:43,123]: And they had a lot of data

[00:45:44,563]: So I think this has been a thing on my mind

[00:45:47,923]: If they weren’t running the optimal strategy why

[00:45:50,003]: I know it’s hard to get media attention for things and that’s fair enough

[00:45:54,083]: But it’s also not impossible to get media attention for things

[00:45:56,703]: Right

[00:45:57,223]: For instance it’s very easy to get media attention for anti price gouging policies because there’s a lot of controversy over them about whether or not they worked

[00:46:06,103]: But they did make people talk about whether or not you were going to do an anti price gouging policy

[00:46:09,923]: This is a Donald Trump move constantly

[00:46:13,423]: Announce a policy that probably doesn’t work or is in some way outrageous or beyond the bounds of political possibility

[00:46:19,603]: Maybe isn’t even all that popular when you poll but you get people talking about you having a very strong view

[00:46:24,423]: Right

[00:46:24,843]: You’re going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it

[00:46:26,483]: Everybody knows Mexico isn’t going to pay for it

[00:46:28,343]: But you are talking about how Donald Trump hates immigration

[00:46:30,943]: Right

[00:46:31,363]: And it breaks through

[00:46:33,103]: It is not rocket science to get people to pay attention

[00:46:36,463]: If Bernie Sanders had been running in the campaign people would have paid attention to his economic messaging because he does economic messaging that creates conflict

[00:46:44,543]: If it was really this big delta between the economic push and the institution’s push and the institution’s push is what got made or at least got made more than it should have why

[00:46:58,023]: The thing I’ll say you know in terms of why I’m sympathetic you know to the people who actually had these jobs and had to make these decisions is it just feels wrong

[00:47:07,203]: You know like I have a situation I mentioned this before where donors will email me and they’ll be like oh look at this crazy absolutely terrible thing

[00:47:14,143]: It’s evil thing that Trump is doing

[00:47:15,743]: We need to test it

[00:47:16,703]: We need to tell the voters

[00:47:17,963]: Can you test it

[00:47:18,743]: And it really doesn’t work

[00:47:20,123]: People want to hear about eggs you know and you know it’s easy for me to say that you know because I don’t I don’t really I’m not directly in charge

[00:47:27,683]: But I just think it’s it just feels really wrong when you’re in the moment

[00:47:32,923]: And it’s just very it’s very hard to totally shift direction you know just because data tells you one thing

[00:47:39,563]: I do think the campaign photo ops that we all remember at the end are telling which is it was an extraordinary visual Harris at the Ellipse

[00:47:53,043]: And then there were the visuals of Donald Trump in a garbage truck

[00:47:56,943]: And Donald Trump at McDonald’s

[00:47:59,483]: And there was a ridiculousness to those visuals

[00:48:02,623]: I saw a lot of liberals making fun of them on various social media platforms

[00:48:07,323]: But there was something about which visuals are being chosen by the two candidates

[00:48:13,283]: I mean of the two of them only Kamala Harris had actually worked at a McDonald’s

[00:48:17,303]: But she wasn’t the one who ended up like putting on the apron and getting photographed at McDonald’s

[00:48:24,083]: And there’s a thing about what the candidates end up wanting to do that is meaningful too

[00:48:28,583]: And I do think there’s a way in which I wonder if that explains part of what we ended up seeing

[00:48:36,303]: Each coalition’s campaigns are ultimately going to reflect you know the aesthetic and cultural choices of the people who staff them

[00:48:42,923]: And you know it makes sense

[00:48:44,743]: Like if you had just said two years ago Trump’s going to end by showing up at a McDonald’s like it just wouldn’t have been surprising I think

[00:48:51,143]: And so it’s just hard to escape you know that kind of demographic poll

[00:48:54,283]: But we have to try because we have to actually win these people over

[00:48:57,963]: OK

[00:48:58,363]: And so now I just have a couple more slides I want to go through

[00:49:03,443]: I talked about this before but voters cared a lot more about delivering change than preserving institutions

[00:49:11,003]: And then we have this other polling question here which I think is interesting which is just you know asking people to pick between the statements

[00:49:17,283]: You know things could be going better in America

[00:49:19,703]: But what we need is a return to basic stability

[00:49:23,023]: And the other is things in America are going poorly

[00:49:26,103]: And what’s needed is a major change and a shock to the system

[00:49:29,883]: And when you have those two things it’s 53 37 which is a lot wider than the election result ended up being

[00:49:36,723]: What really strikes me about this is that the sometimes I read polls and the wording is pretty clearly there to make something sound better than the other thing

[00:49:46,023]: Right

[00:49:47,563]: Things could be going better in America

[00:49:49,303]: And what is needed is return to basic stability from whoever becomes president

[00:49:53,123]: And things in America are going poorly

[00:49:55,143]: And what is needed is a major change and a shock to the system from whoever becomes president

[00:49:59,563]: I would in some ways say the second there is worded to turn people off a little bit

[00:50:03,703]: It sounds disruptive crisis a shock right

[00:50:06,823]: It’s not just major change

[00:50:08,703]: It is something beyond that

[00:50:11,263]: Right

[00:50:11,963]: And it dominates

[00:50:13,823]: I guess though I have a question about this which is on the one hand we see lines like that outpolling the incremental change everywhere

[00:50:25,803]: On the other hand if you look at the new split ticket ratings for who overperformed in the election very moderate House Democrats did very well

[00:50:34,363]: There does seem to me to be a tension between two forms of political wisdom that they both have data behind them right now

[00:50:40,823]: Right

[00:50:41,263]: Which is that voters want huge massive change

[00:50:44,383]: And like the optimum political strategy is Joe Manchin or Jared Golden or Ruben Gallego who are actually not or Susan Collins who are not people who promise unbelievably shocking change

[00:51:00,883]: They are moderates who kind of tack between the parties a little bit and you know try to represent a center that wants something a little bit less dramatic than either side is offering

[00:51:16,543]: How do you reconcile them

[00:51:18,563]: There’s an enormous amount of status quo bias in politics

[00:51:22,003]: You know campaigning on big policy changes you know can be pretty unpopular

[00:51:27,443]: But I think you know the way to thread the needle what this is really saying is that voters were very angry about the state of things

[00:51:35,423]: And what they wanted tonally was someone who acknowledged that anger

[00:51:40,203]: Because you know Ruben Gallego did a lot of criticism of the status quo and was able to outperform

[00:51:45,543]: So people on an angry moderate

[00:51:47,223]: That’s right

[00:51:47,603]: I think that’s exactly right

[00:51:48,683]: Like they want not a I always think of temperament and ideology as being separate axes in American politics that we connect too much

[00:51:56,323]: So we think about people who are moderates often have the moderate temperament

[00:52:00,763]: Susan Collins is like the great example the joke always of the Susan Collins meter from you know somewhat concerned all the way to very concerned being you know the red line for her

[00:52:09,503]: You have a lot of moderates who by nature they’re pretty chill

[00:52:14,303]: They try to be civil

[00:52:16,783]: What this is implying is what people want are moderate policies in a more revolutionary or certainly more upset temperament

[00:52:30,323]: Yeah

[00:52:31,383]: We’re pissed but not ideologically extreme about it

[00:52:33,543]: It’s like a funny chant but

[00:52:35,123]: When people think about moderates they think of you know somebody like Joe Manchin someone who’s just like down the line on everything

[00:52:41,643]: And you know the reality I think that’s an accurate description of what highly educated moderates are like

[00:52:48,223]: But most low socioeconomic status moderates actually have fairly incoherent views

[00:52:54,243]: You know they’re liberal on some issues

[00:52:55,563]: They’re very conservative on other issues

[00:52:57,943]: And I think that you know that’s just like a much closer fit for that

[00:53:01,823]: That’s when you think of that it’s maybe less surprising that a lot of them like Donald Trump

[00:53:05,963]: Back in 2016 I wrote a piece about Donald Trump that has one of these headlines that now people will sometimes screenshot and be mad at me about but it’s called something like Donald Trump is a perfect moderate

[00:53:17,743]: And the point of the piece was not that he’s not extreme because he is extreme but that the way his politics worked particularly on the campaign trail in things he said was it was internally disorganized

[00:53:30,743]: So you’d be extremely far right on immigration but compared to other Republicans much more centrist on things like Medicare and Social Security he would talk about giving health care to everybody even though Republicans wouldn’t like that

[00:53:41,643]: He talked about raising taxes on people like him not how he governed

[00:53:45,223]: But there’s a lot of research that actual moderates like people in the electorate who are moderate it’s not that they have a in between the two parties view on everything

[00:53:55,123]: It’s that they might believe in completely legalized weed on the one hand and mass deportations on the other

[00:54:01,723]: That they it’s like if you imagine positions as like being they can be very liberal very conservative

[00:54:09,263]: They average out to moderate as opposed to being consistently moderate

[00:54:13,263]: That’s exactly right

[00:54:14,583]: And you know the way I like to you know to put that in math terms you know the issue correlations for highly educated people are just a lot higher than they are

[00:54:22,203]: Your eyebrows get excited when you do math terms

[00:54:23,743]: Yeah no I’m sorry

[00:54:25,003]: All right

[00:54:25,503]: But I’m glad we started talking about ideology because that dovetails to the next slide

[00:54:30,583]: Here we just ask for each of the candidates do you think this candidate was more liberal than me more conservative than me or close to my views

[00:54:38,243]: So when you look at this slide you know what you see is that 49 percent of voters said that Kamala Harris was more liberal than me while only 39 percent of voters said that Donald Trump was more conservative than me

[00:54:54,543]: And so there was this big ideological perception gap where a lot of voters saw Donald Trump as more moderate than Kamala Harris

[00:55:03,923]: What did this look like in 2016 and 2020

[00:55:06,303]: So in 2016 it looked fairly similar to this

[00:55:10,663]: In 2020 perceptions of Donald Trump being too extreme went up relative to 2016 and perceptions of the Democratic candidate being too extreme went down from 2016 to 2020

[00:55:22,383]: Now you know that I think wasn’t a property of Joe Biden per se

[00:55:25,943]: Like obviously him being moderate was a big part of his brand at that time

[00:55:28,943]: But you know in our polling you know we would ask you know do you think that Joe Biden is too liberal or too conservative or whatever

[00:55:34,983]: And we saw that over the course of 2021 as his approval ratings dipped the perception that he was too liberal also went up

[00:55:42,983]: Well it’s also true that Joe Biden became more liberal like in terms of how he governed and in terms of what he ran on

[00:55:50,063]: So you’re saying that in the 2020 election you actually did see people say that they were ideologically closer to Biden than to Trump

[00:55:56,483]: Yes

[00:55:57,823]: And then over time that eroded

[00:56:00,443]: That eroded

[00:56:00,803]: You know the thing I want to say here before I move on is I’m really not trying to beat up on Kamala Harris here

[00:56:07,323]: Like I think if you just step back if you have a situation where the Democratic Party where only 42 percent of Americans trust the Democratic Party on the economy relative to 58 for Republicans you know obviously the standard bearer of the Democratic Party is going to be perceived as too left wing unless they unless they do a lot of stuff to try to counterbalance that

[00:56:27,383]: I mean people were living under the Biden Harris administration whatever they thought of it

[00:56:33,103]: The line Trump would sometimes deliver on Harris which in many ways is unfair if you’re a super politically engaged voter and you have a lot of thoughts about the powers of the vice presidency

[00:56:43,483]: But to most people if you have all these great ideas why don’t you do them in the last four years while you’re vice president was a pretty strong argument

[00:56:51,763]: I think there’s a good argument that given that you know it’s amazing that we did as well as we did but it was a close election

[00:56:58,083]: And so I don’t you know who knows what the counterfactual could have been

[00:57:00,963]: I want to note something as a dog that is not barking across this presentation

[00:57:06,243]: Yeah

[00:57:06,723]: Since the election I think that if you look at what Donald Trump is doing what Elon Musk is doing and if you look at punditry about the election that if everybody agrees on anything it’s that the election was a huge verdict on wokeness

[00:57:21,663]: It’s famously one of Trump’s higher testing ads was this

[00:57:26,343]: Kamala Harris is for they them

[00:57:27,983]: Donald Trump is for you

[00:57:30,083]: As you’re sort of running through this I’m not saying you’re saying you know DEI programs are popular but I’m not seeing it emerge as a major explanation for for 2024 here

[00:57:40,723]: I’m curious how you both think about in the election and think about the role it is playing in the post election narrative

[00:57:48,463]: I just want to say you know the they them ad that everybody talks about you know it was it was a good ad but it was like a 70th percentile ad

[00:57:55,443]: You know in our testing if you look at all of the best testing ads from Donald Trump it was basically the economy

[00:58:01,983]: It was gas prices

[00:58:03,103]: It was immigration

[00:58:04,323]: You know it was crime

[00:58:06,203]: And so I think that there’s definitely been an overfocus you know on DEI on wokeness on trans issues

[00:58:15,043]: I think it definitely played a role on the elite discourse and why you know so many tech CEOs have become more right wing and you know all of all that

[00:58:23,503]: But I think that the voters were really mad about inflation and crime and immigration and the budget deficit

[00:58:31,323]: And you know I think the Republicans are making a mistake honestly to focus on these things so much relative to concrete issues that people actually care about

[00:58:41,103]: You know I think that there’s this bigger picture point I want to make where I think that a lot of people see the Trump administration as kind of a break that shows that all of the traditional rules of politics no longer apply

[00:58:56,123]: And I think that you know I think to some extent that’s wrong that a lot of what’s happening is really very easy to understand

[00:59:04,003]: Donald Trump you know to go back to the ideological thing he broke with his party

[00:59:07,883]: He might have been dishonest about it but he disavowed Project 2025

[00:59:12,083]: He said that he wouldn’t cut social programs

[00:59:14,423]: He ruled out a national abortion ban

[00:59:16,383]: And I think that you know that kind of thing just plays a big role in his success

[00:59:20,263]: And I think that a lot of these newer things you know that we talk about might be less important than we think

[00:59:26,523]: But you know the flip side is it’s possible that when it comes to something like why is it that 20 year old men are so much more conservative than they were four years ago

[00:59:36,163]: I don’t know

[00:59:36,663]: I could believe maybe wokeness has something to do with that

[00:59:39,183]: But I think that the bulk of this is traditional factors

[00:59:42,223]: So now I just have the last slide of the retrospective

[00:59:46,203]: You know what I have here is we have the share of voters who get their news from TikTok you know by year the share of voters who get their news of young voters who get their news from TikTok more than quadrupled in the last four years

[01:00:00,603]: This is the biggest and probably fastest change in media consumption you know that has happened in my lifetime

[01:00:07,323]: And it was quite correlated with support change

[01:00:11,423]: Now obviously TikTok users are younger they’re less politically engaged

[01:00:14,883]: It’s like not surprising that we dropped among this group

[01:00:18,103]: You’d expect that from demographics

[01:00:19,663]: But if you go and you do the regressions I think there was definitely a causal element there

[01:00:24,663]: And you know when you zoom in particularly to people who get their news from TikTok who don’t care very much about politics this is a group that’s eight percentage points more Republican than they were four years ago

[01:00:36,283]: So by the end of the election Donald Trump is promising to save TikTok

[01:00:42,823]: One possible explanation then for TikTok users shifting towards Trump is that they like TikTok and they didn’t want it to be taken away from them

[01:00:49,883]: Another which people have worried about quite a bit is that the company behind TikTok could very easily have been turning dials you know just softly

[01:01:00,543]: Right

[01:01:00,823]: It’s not that nothing that is liberal does well on TikTok

[01:01:03,623]: I’ve seen videos of me get posted there and do very well on TikTok but that it would not be hard to turn up the dial a little bit on issues that are tricky for Democrats on people complaining about the cost of living on pro Trump influencers

[01:01:18,423]: Right

[01:01:18,663]: If you know everybody who the algorithm codes is pro Trump gets a seven percent boost that is pretty

[01:01:25,043]: That will not be obvious exactly on the app but could be very very meaningful in the aggregate

[01:01:29,943]: When you look at this data do you think it is something about TikTok

[01:01:34,943]: Do you think it is something about TikTok’s audience just being young people who are seeing this movement

[01:01:39,283]: Or does it make you suspect dial turning

[01:01:42,543]: You know I don’t know the answer to that

[01:01:45,383]: It’s totally possible

[01:01:46,463]: Like we know that they do dial turning on some topics you know like you know stuff like Ukraine or Tiananmen Square or whatever

[01:01:53,623]: But you know what I’ll say is I think that TikTok represents something fairly radically different than social networks that came before it

[01:02:02,583]: And I’m sure you know that you know there could be some malfeasance on the part of people who work there

[01:02:08,103]: But the thing that I think about sometimes is just that I think TikTok is really the first social media platform that is really truly decentralized

[01:02:17,663]: Like if you just and what I mean by that is just it’s not based on follower graphs

[01:02:21,443]: Like if you look at Reels or Twitter or whatever how many people see a video or a piece of content is highly correlated with how many followers that person has

[01:02:30,663]: TikTok is a lot more random

[01:02:31,983]: And there’s like very interesting machine learning reasons for why

[01:02:34,943]: But I think that it really allowed a lot of content that never would have gotten a lot of views on Twitter or on television to to suddenly escape containment and get directly into the eyes of like people who don’t care that much about politics

[01:02:51,803]: And you know I don’t know like you could tell a story that maybe just anti incumbent stuff is going to do really well on TikTok and Democrats are going to do great now

[01:03:00,663]: I don’t really know

[01:03:01,963]: But I think that for whatever reason you know this big change I think really did help Republicans

[01:03:08,623]: And it’s just an example of how the world has really changed a lot

[01:03:11,944]: So yeah I know that you’re near a Democratic both freak out and funding world

[01:03:19,344]: I hear a lot from Democrats about how to fix what they now call the media problem or you know sometimes you hear that the TikTok problem may be paid you know try to seed creators and give them some support

[01:03:30,044]: When you look at this do you think this is something that an established political party and a bunch of donors can do something about

[01:03:36,424]: Or do you think this is a TikTok is a vibes machine

[01:03:39,824]: And basically for reasons of inflation for reasons of incumbency for reasons of a censorious you know Democratic Party that people got tired of the vibes are bad for Democrats in 2024

[01:03:54,224]: And vibes machines like TikTok like some of the other social media things they’re going to be an amplifier of bad vibes

[01:04:00,684]: So it’s not really a thing to do in the sense of strategy

[01:04:06,004]: What you’re trying to do is be culturally both in terms of the candidates you have and the actual things you say and believe you know culturally a better product

[01:04:16,224]: And then the things that pick up good cultural products and amplify them are going to be friendlier to you

[01:04:20,964]: I think there’s a lot of truth in that

[01:04:23,184]: I think that TikTok is genuinely strange relative to platforms before it in that its audience is more politically disengaged and more working class

[01:04:33,864]: And I think it’s just been very hard for us as a party to find you know creators and content that appeals to people like that because all of the people who work in democratic politics are not like that

[01:04:46,204]: And I think that in the old traditional media world you know we were a lot like the media gatekeepers

[01:04:51,164]: And so it was kind of clear how to win that war

[01:04:53,864]: And I think Democrats did a good job of doing it

[01:04:55,904]: But now we have a totally different fight

[01:04:58,304]: So you know just you know to move on and talk a little bit about the present as opposed to the long long time ago of you know four or five months ago

[01:05:08,764]: So you know you’ve talked a lot in your previous episodes about you know Trump’s flood the zone strategy where he’s just constantly doing a bunch of stuff

[01:05:18,784]: And you know what we’ve done here is you know we’ve pulled all his executive orders and stuff that he’s campaigned on

[01:05:24,944]: I think we have something like 60 60 dots here

[01:05:27,124]: Every one of these dots is a policy that we’ve pulled

[01:05:29,864]: And you know what you can see is that there is a lot of variance

[01:05:33,944]: You know a lot of the things that he campaigned on you know no taxes on tips deploying you know the military to the border voter ID laws ending remote work for federal employees

[01:05:45,584]: A lot of that stuff is very popular while the flip side is a lot of stuff that he’s actually doing

[01:05:50,684]: You know he talks about this stuff less but Medicaid cuts repealing the ACA extending tax cuts to billionaires

[01:05:59,324]: A lot of that stuff is really unpopular

[01:06:02,044]: Just to say something a little controversial

[01:06:04,904]: I think a lot of the challenge of the Trump era is that they’re going to try to bait us

[01:06:09,764]: And you know we should do everything we can you know to actually meaningfully resist and protect the populations that we care about and everything

[01:06:16,414]: But I think we need to make sure that we’re preserving a considerable amount of time you know to attacking Trump on the most effective things that voters are concerned about

[01:06:26,324]: You’ve used the term bait a few times

[01:06:28,444]: Yeah

[01:06:28,624]: Right

[01:06:28,804]: They’re going to try to bait us

[01:06:30,044]: Right

[01:06:30,924]: I think of a political party baiting you as dangling something in front of you that you know they know is going to make you mad but it isn’t that big of a deal

[01:06:39,764]: They’re doing mass firings around critical functions

[01:06:42,624]: They’re destroying USAID

[01:06:45,444]: They’re arrogating a huge amount of executive power

[01:06:48,944]: The set of things that I find Democrats are really worried about at the moment it’s on the one hand I suspect they’re not the things that the public cares about wants to hear that much about you know making a podcaster the deputy director of the FBI

[01:07:03,904]: But at the same time they’re not baiting

[01:07:05,484]: They’re real

[01:07:06,244]: They’re important

[01:07:06,864]: Like what the what is the point of a party that will not fight those

[01:07:12,504]: And this is a place where I think there is a tension between this focus on what’s popular

[01:07:18,304]: Don’t focus on just the things that activate your your high education high income base

[01:07:23,124]: But in terms of getting people out into the streets potentially if you need that getting people to town halls there’s sometimes I think this thought of the party that’s just going to like I mean James Carville’s been playing saying Democrats should basically play dead for a while and wait until the Trump administration’s unpopular actions destroy the Trump administration

[01:07:41,504]: But don’t get in the way

[01:07:42,584]: Right

[01:07:43,024]: Or or there’s this version of a party that various things Hakeem Jeffries has said at different points have sounded like this to people I think is thinking is a bit more complicated than this

[01:07:51,684]: But you know we’re not going to run after all these things

[01:07:53,584]: We’re going to focus on the price of of eggs price of goods

[01:07:58,204]: You can really lose your own base if you’re not defending democracy when they care about democracy because you’re waiting for an opportunity to attack prices when prices are kind of going to do what prices are going to do

[01:08:08,924]: What Democrats say about prices isn’t the most salient thing

[01:08:14,004]: Am I getting what you’re saying right

[01:08:16,164]: Is there a way of threading the needle

[01:08:18,184]: How do you think about that

[01:08:19,144]: Yeah

[01:08:19,344]: You know I think you could imagine a theoretical world where we would have really hard and unpleasant tradeoffs

[01:08:26,644]: But I think the world we actually live in is that a bunch of the things that we’re extremely concerned about are actually really unpopular

[01:08:35,364]: And you know just kind of going forward to the next slide here’s some randomized control trial data that you know we did that like I was talking about earlier with the ads where we just kind of went through and we looked at you know 58 different things that Trump’s going to do

[01:08:51,004]: And then we rank ordered them by how persuasive they were at actually changing people’s votes and making people disapprove of Trump

[01:08:57,804]: And you know I think that a lot of the things that we’re most concerned about you know Elon causing chaos in the federal government cuts to you know Medicaid and Medicare and Social Security extending tax breaks for the rich

[01:09:10,324]: You know obviously this list of things is not exactly the same as my top five things that I am personally most concerned about with the Trump administration

[01:09:21,484]: But I think that the Republicans are making a lot of unforced errors that make it easier to thread the needle on these things than I think it otherwise would be true

[01:09:31,584]: But these are also pretty small changes in Trump disapproval

[01:09:35,244]: If I’m reading what this chart is right you know if Democrats attack Trump for cutting Medicare and Social Security or wanting to cut Medicare and Social Security that increases Trump disapproval by 2 5 points

[01:09:46,224]: If they attack him for letting Elon slash budgets hurting Americans and putting privacy at risk that’s hurts him by 2 2 points

[01:09:54,304]: Going down passing a one party power grab to cut government services without compromise that’s 2 1 points

[01:10:00,504]: These kind of all look the same and none of them are very big

[01:10:04,144]: Can you just like think for a second like this is like can you imagine 70 words

[01:10:08,004]: You like stop a Trump voter on the street and you say the 70 words to him and then you know there’s a 2 5 chance he changes his mind

[01:10:15,784]: I think that’s incredible

[01:10:16,604]: I just think that these two pieces of data tell a story of how we should try to shape the campaign against Trump in the next couple of months which is that he is wrecking havoc in the federal government

[01:10:30,204]: I think that is consistent with our principles and also something that voters are very concerned about

[01:10:34,904]: You know that he is trying to slash support for the safety net and that he’s trying to do tax cuts against the wealthy

[01:10:40,624]: And you know I think that a lot of this critique of Trump is really very similar to the campaign that we ran against Mitt Romney

[01:10:50,724]: And I think that this kind of gets back to what I was saying before of I feel like you know we were so shocked by Trump that we kind of forgot that the old rules of politics

[01:10:59,724]: I want to read two of these because I think something you just said is important when we’re talking about these old laws of politics

[01:11:05,684]: So here’s the

[01:11:07,944]: These are all high polling high testing messages but this is the lowest one on the chart

[01:11:13,584]: So Trump is working to repeal a law that lowers the cost of health care and prescription drug costs and caps insulin costs at 35 a month for seniors

[01:11:20,584]: By repealing this law Trump will increase the cost of lifesaving medicine for millions and create more financial strain when costs are already too high

[01:11:27,004]: So that increases Trump disapproval by 1 9 points

[01:11:30,244]: I think that is as like right down the middle a Democratic message as you could possibly imagine that does not test as well as Trump is letting Elon Musk slash federal budgets with no oversight checks or balances

[01:11:45,044]: Musk gave 250 million for Trump’s campaign and now Trump is letting Musk reshape the government in ways that advance Musk’s interests even if they hurt working Americans by cutting the basics like Medicaid and public schools

[01:11:56,184]: I am actually surprised that the Elon Musk attack is outpolling the insulin attack

[01:12:02,784]: And it’s interesting because I see this in Trump voters in my own life

[01:12:08,084]: Some of the ones I know they’re actually not happy with what’s going on in the Trump administration

[01:12:12,804]: There’s a lot they don’t like

[01:12:14,304]: There’s a lot going on but too much

[01:12:17,104]: But Musk creeps them out

[01:12:19,864]: Is that in your data

[01:12:21,604]: I think it’s really telling that Elon stuff floats to the top here because it’s really very hard for something to be competitive with Protect Social Security and Medicare

[01:12:33,424]: The fact that there are multiple Elon things up at the top I think really does tell a story that there’s something really unusual about what he’s doing

[01:12:41,144]: It’s very easy to tie what he’s doing to harming individual people

[01:12:45,664]: In ads one of the clearest patterns in ads is that getting a real person and just having them stare at a camera and talk about the ways that Republicans have personally hurt them

[01:12:55,164]: It’s the best content

[01:12:56,324]: It’s funny if you hire actors it doesn’t work as well

[01:12:58,604]: People have tried

[01:12:59,684]: And that’s why in some ways I’m optimistic that Democrats will be able to thread the coalitional needle here because the two things that we should do is fight against social welfare cuts and also attack Elon Musk for the chaos he’s creating

[01:13:17,764]: And I think that that’s something that basically every wing of the party should be on board with

[01:13:23,124]: Donald Trump is polling better than he was at this point in his first term

[01:13:28,864]: And the vibes have really shifted in a pro Trump direction and look at how much he and Elon Musk are doing

[01:13:34,184]: And you know I’ve certainly talked to Republicans who have this feeling that Trump has unlocked a sort of political juggernaut here that he has cracked the code of American politics

[01:13:44,804]: But you have this this side is titled Trump is vulnerable

[01:13:48,864]: So why is he vulnerable

[01:13:50,384]: Well you know the first thing you see is that he has been getting more unpopular rapidly as time has gone on

[01:13:56,964]: And I just think the most predictable thing in American politics and we get surprised every single time it happens is the president comes in he wins a trifecta and then he over he does a bunch of unpopular stuff he overreaches and then he becomes very unpopular and loses big in the midterms

[01:14:12,444]: That doesn’t mean that you can’t avoid the cycle

[01:14:16,564]: But I think that in order to avoid it like when you look at the people who did the best job you know Clinton in 1998 or Kennedy in 1962 you know they did it by engaging in an enormous amount of policy restraint

[01:14:30,824]: And that is just not what Trump has been doing at all

[01:14:34,404]: And I think that you can just see in the data but his approval rating is dropping pretty quickly

[01:14:39,904]: And you can see that he’s just pissing off lots of people and that the stuff that a lot of the stuff that he’s doing and drawing attention toward is really quite unpopular

[01:14:49,644]: There’s also this reality of the coalitional realignment you were talking about the beginning which is Democrats now have this higher information higher engagement coalition

[01:15:01,484]: Those are the people who turn out in midterms disproportionately

[01:15:03,884]: If I were a moderate Republican right now or a Republican in any way vulnerable I know they’re all afraid of Elon Musk and they’re afraid of primaries

[01:15:14,904]: I’d be pretty afraid of losing because it’s not just that you tend to have thermostatic midterm elections but that the coalitions have been changing such that Democrats are able to survive the 2022 midterm which should have gone against them

[01:15:27,664]: And I think Dobbs saved them to some degree but also the fact that their coalition was as you showed earlier right if only 2022 voters had come out in 2024 Harris would have won

[01:15:39,724]: You got to be pretty confident in Donald Trump’s political skills to think that he is going to shift that dynamic

[01:15:48,164]: It seems that in addition to all the normal things that happens to presidents in midterms the shape of the coalition makes midterms harder right now for Republicans

[01:15:57,424]: Yeah I think that’s exactly right

[01:15:59,144]: But you know that said it gets to this like tension in all of these like Democratic soul searching conversations which is if Democrats do nothing really like they’ll probably be okay in 2026 because all of these voters you know who get their news from TikTok who don’t care about politics these like voters under 25 they just really are not going to vote very much in the midterms

[01:16:21,004]: But if we don’t fix this problem then four years from now you know we could be in the same trust deficit on all of these core issues

[01:16:28,924]: And these voters that didn’t turn out in 2026 will come back and except we’ll be running against a candidate who’s a lot less unpopular potentially than Trump and it could be in a real problem a real real pickle

[01:16:39,924]: About the Senate

[01:16:40,984]: So you and I I did a big piece on kind of debates about populism a couple years ago

[01:16:45,564]: It involved a model that you had and that model was predicting in 2022 but specifically 2024

[01:16:54,364]: Like Democratic Senate annihilation

[01:16:56,744]: Right

[01:16:57,204]: And Democrats are down a couple of seats in the Senate

[01:16:59,664]: It’s what is it 53 47

[01:17:01,964]: Right

[01:17:03,364]: It’s not a good map for them in 2026

[01:17:06,704]: And they did lose some seats that were really important to them like Tester in Montana and Brown in Ohio

[01:17:13,884]: How do you see the Democratic Senate future

[01:17:17,904]: If you had told me in 2019 when I started worrying about the 2024 Senate election that we would have 47 seats I would have jumped for joy

[01:17:24,884]: I think the really big factors there is like Republicans ran a bunch of really terrible candidates in a bunch of swing races

[01:17:32,604]: And it turns out Democrats those Democratic candidates did a good job of distancing themselves from the party

[01:17:38,524]: I don’t want to spend too much time speculating about the 2026 map but I think that even though the bias in the electoral college has gone down quite a bit because of the swing among immigrants that doesn’t really change that the Senate

[01:17:52,944]: It’s very hard for Democrats to take the Senate unless they can consistently outperform how Harris did and how Biden did in most of the country

[01:18:02,664]: These problems won’t be fixed unless we spend the next two years or four years changing the party’s brand among working class voters who are overrepresented in the Senate

[01:18:13,624]: OK the one exception to this I think and this is just controversial and might get me in trouble is I think that I’m just going to scroll up back to the Senate slide

[01:18:24,884]: If you look in Nebraska the single biggest overperformance that we had was Osborne running as an independent

[01:18:33,064]: He outperformed the top of the ticket by 7 1

[01:18:35,544]: Now obviously Nebraska is an extremely red state

[01:18:38,664]: And I think that we’ve only ever tried this strategy of running people who are literally formally not tied to the Democratic Party in extremely red states

[01:18:49,304]: But I think the argument for doing that kind of thing in merely red states in places like Florida or places like Ohio or Iowa those are hard questions and it’s not up to me what we end up doing

[01:19:01,324]: But I think it’s something that we have to really seriously consider

[01:19:03,984]: And then that also just brings up the really awkward point of well what do we do

[01:19:08,584]: With the reality that in most you know by land area in most parts of the country it’s almost impossible for a Democrat or someone with a Democrat on their ticket to win

[01:19:18,024]: What do you do about the reality of the Democratic brand is toxic in yeah most of the land area in the country

[01:19:29,444]: Because I think you can have this conversation that you always have to be careful at which conversation you’re having

[01:19:35,844]: Is the conversation can Democrats win in 2026 or 2028

[01:19:39,904]: And the answer there is yes

[01:19:41,904]: If the conversation is how do you get back to a place where you’re putting states in play that Democrats have just kind of given up on

[01:19:49,804]: Mitch McConnell’s retiring in Kentucky

[01:19:51,664]: There’s a Democratic governor in Kentucky

[01:19:53,804]: It’s not literally true that no Democrat can ever win there

[01:19:56,644]: I don’t think anybody seriously thinks so that a Democrat is going to win Mitch McConnell’s seat because the Democratic brand nationally which is different than its kind of state party brand is pretty bad

[01:20:07,484]: And people understand when they’re voting for Senate they’re voting for the national brand

[01:20:11,304]: Right

[01:20:12,104]: See I’ve been thinking about this for a long time

[01:20:14,104]: If you were trying to think about reversing these much deeper trends right these educational trends these this sort of realignment that has if your whole point in life was to make Democrats competitive again in Florida in Missouri in Kansas right not the red estates but states that they were competitive in a couple of years ago what would you advise Democrats to do

[01:20:38,904]: The reality of the situation right now like I think there are these big theoretical discussions we could have about what positions the Democrats could take is that Democrats are not in power right now

[01:20:48,424]: And so we don’t have agenda control

[01:20:50,784]: And I think a lot of this just depends on what Trump does and what and then who replaces Trump

[01:20:58,144]: You know like something I’ll say going back to the 2016 you know the the first time that Trump was president is that when we were looking at polling of non college whites you know and these Obama Trump voters you know their approval rating for Trump was really very stable for most of his term

[01:21:14,284]: And the only time that it declined was when Trump tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act

[01:21:18,484]: And then we saw you know we saw them revert kind of to their own old partisanship

[01:21:22,784]: But once that was out of the news they switched back

[01:21:25,944]: And so you know I think that does kind of like at this moment given that there is no party leader I think it’s mostly a question of if Trump does successfully push a bunch of welfare state cuts then that might change the realignment

[01:21:39,704]: But I think realistically at least until 2026 it’s mostly a function of what Republicans do

[01:21:45,104]: But you know when we pick a new presidential candidate you know that that will be a that will be a reset

[01:21:50,504]: And I think it’s you know I don’t think it’s too early to talk about that

[01:21:53,864]: But I think that you know you could imagine us picking candidates who would have to do a much better job

[01:21:59,304]: I think that is a good place to end

[01:22:01,124]: So always our final question what are three books you recommend to the audience

[01:22:05,124]: I’d say the three books for me I want to just call out Hollow Parties by Danny Shosman

[01:22:10,844]: He’s a good friend of mine

[01:22:12,004]: And I think it’s And Sam Rosenfeld

[01:22:13,964]: And Sam Rosenfeld of course

[01:22:16,524]: Yes

[01:22:17,004]: I think it’s it’s hard to talk about a lot of these you know questions that I was kind of dodging about you know why parties were doing what they did without kind of reading that

[01:22:26,724]: You know the other thing I want to call out is something that was usually influential for how I think about politics

[01:22:31,764]: This is a really nerdy pick but the Origin and Nature of Mass Opinion by Zoller

[01:22:37,184]: It kind of gets at this this question of how much how much does what people say in surveys matter versus how much of it is downstream of what people are saying you know what elites are saying

[01:22:47,204]: And I think his answer is mostly elites but both

[01:22:51,164]: And then last thing I just wanted to call out was Victory Lab by Sasha Eisenberg

[01:22:57,184]: You know it kind of talks a lot about you know the history of the Democratic analytics industry

[01:23:01,984]: A lot of the stuff that these numbers that I’ve shared here kind of come out of that machine

[01:23:06,044]: And so if you’re just interested in kind of the history of the Democratic Party’s internal analytics and research structure it’s the only book really that’s ever been written about it

[01:23:15,684]: David Shor thank you very much

[01:23:17,184]: Thank you

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