In a recent episode of The Ezra Klein Show, host Ezra Klein delves into the complexities of the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. With insights from renowned journalist Tom Friedman, the discussion highlights critical observations from his recent trip to China and raises urgent questions about the broader implications of these trade tensions. As we dissect the claims made during this enlightening conversation, we will take a closer look at the facts and assertions surrounding the trade conflict, analyzing the economic and geopolitical factors at play. Join us as we separate fact from fiction and unpack the reasons why Trump could face significant challenges in this high-stakes standoff.
Find a fact check of this transcript on CheckForFacts
Transcript:
[00:00:00,000]: What if you get into a trade war with China and you lose [00:00:04,420]: I don’t think people are thinking enough about how possible that really is [00:00:08,579]: And one of the reasons it’s possible isn’t just because Donald Trump’s trade war is ill thought through and ill defined and not well planned for [00:00:17,159]: It’s also because he is building it on top of a consensus that is hardened in Washington about what China is [00:00:24,079]: I think China has taken terrible advantage of America over the last decade or two and they don’t play fair [00:00:30,680]: Imperialist China seeks to remake the world in its own image [00:00:34,540]: Bring our supply chains back home from places like China [00:00:37,200]: The whole world knows that China doesn’t have better workers than America but they’re willing to lie cheat and steal to win [00:00:44,740]: I get a little nervous whenever anything becomes too much of a consensus in Washington [00:00:48,959]: Whenever both sides become too certain of who their enemy is and how that enemy should be fought [00:00:56,259]: I fear that America is trying to fight the China of the 90s or the 2000s with a very very very poor understanding of what China has become today [00:01:06,319]: And so I’ve been cheered a bit to hear my colleague Tom Friedman at the New York Times questioning that consensus and saying some things about what it would mean to compete effectively with China now [00:01:17,300]: Those are the kinds of things no one is really saying at high levels of American politics anymore [00:01:22,519]: But maybe things we at least need to consider at least need to hear [00:01:27,319]: As always my email is reclineshow at NYTimes com [00:01:36,919]: Tom Friedman welcome to the show [00:01:39,400]: Great to be with you Esther [00:01:40,040]: So you said something in one of your recent columns that struck me which is that the pandemic was bad for many things [00:01:47,220]: But one of the things it was particularly bad for that is underrated is our ability to understand China [00:01:53,639]: Why [00:01:54,220]: Well basically all the American business executives in China left China during Covid virtually all of them [00:02:01,599]: And then after Covid we began this process of decoupling [00:02:05,540]: So you basically had six years with very very little American presence there [00:02:13,339]: When I was in China last year I felt like I was the only American in China [00:02:20,479]: You just didn’t see any other Americans not tourists not business people not nobody [00:02:26,080]: I wrote then that it was like America and China were two elephants looking at each other through a straw [00:02:33,360]: Having just been there two weeks ago I would say now they’re like two elephants looking at each other through a needle [00:02:41,199]: The aperture has just gotten tiny [00:02:43,740]: A point I’ve heard you make is that in that six year period there was only one congressional delegation that went to China [00:02:49,919]: And you said this in a column too that typically in America the problem right now in our politics is that we are too divided on issues [00:02:58,380]: It makes it hard to discuss them in any kind of comprehensible fashion [00:03:02,179]: But that on China on this issue specifically we have too much consensus [00:03:08,559]: How would you describe the bipartisan Washington consensus on China [00:03:13,759]: Yeah I mean basically over starting with Trump one and then into the Biden administration and now Trump too kind of became against the law in Washington D C to say anything positive about China [00:03:29,580]: And because of that there was an aversion to going to China [00:03:34,220]: There was an aversion [00:03:35,860]: An American industry began to develop of hiring Chinese [00:03:39,339]: There was an aversion of American college campuses to sending students to school in China [00:03:46,059]: And so you had this giant asymmetry where China had like has today of 260 000 270 000 students studying in America [00:03:55,139]: And we have a few thousand studying there [00:03:59,479]: And the backstory to this is not all an American failure at all [00:04:05,479]: It has to do with also what happened in China beginning with the rise of President Xi Jinping between 2012 2013 and then making himself in effect president for life [00:04:19,959]: China went in reverse [00:04:21,760]: It made a U turn [00:04:23,160]: The China that we thought was you know more or less two steps forward one step back but on a trajectory for more openness at home and more integration with the world that really stopped under Xi Jinping [00:04:38,299]: And it was combined with a program she launched which was to basically make sure that China dominated all the 21st century industries from aerospace to new materials to autonomous vehicles to robots [00:04:57,660]: And that changed the whole chemistry in the U S.-China relationship [00:05:02,700]: But central to that Ezra was that the ballast in this relationship was always the American business community [00:05:09,899]: So they were the ones who for many years beginning in the late 70s were making money in China [00:05:15,940]: And even whenever the relationship got rocky and even when we perceived China was not living up to trade obligations under WTO American business would basically lobby and say look be cool [00:05:28,799]: It’s okay [00:05:30,200]: We’re still making money here [00:05:31,899]: And what happened this combination basically of Xi taking a U turn fewer and fewer American businesses feeling they were getting the benefits out of China that they wanted and were having to transfer too much technology and then China rising on its own with its own technological home grown tech prowess those three things really kind of blew up the relationship [00:06:02,440]: You mention it in terms of the reduction in these cross border exchanges technology exchanges student exchanges [00:06:11,880]: The other side of that story I have heard from Americans from business leaders from other people in power was the growing belief recognition that China had been conducting a massive level of industrial and even educational and political espionage against America [00:06:33,220]: And some of the fears about Chinese students studying here about hiring Chinese workers here was a feeling that at a high level though not predictable to any individual person a lot of this was leading to spying was leading to the theft of technological secrets [00:06:52,540]: And connected to that a belief that that was what was behind China’s rise that China wasn’t just rising that what they were doing was stealing from us and building on top of that [00:07:04,000]: You have this quote from Senator Josh Hawley a Republican influential on foreign affairs that China can’t really innovate [00:07:11,019]: They could just steal from us [00:07:13,200]: So I’m curious how you think that played into it [00:07:17,200]: Yeah I can’t speak to the espionage [00:07:19,279]: I just don’t know [00:07:21,079]: And you get into these kind of Washington conversations with officials where it goes like if only you knew what I knew you know you would be more worried [00:07:31,140]: And my reaction to that is I wish I knew what you knew because it would put everything more in perspective [00:07:36,320]: But I also part of my reaction to that too Ezra is that I hope we’re doing the same to them [00:07:41,640]: I hope we’re spying and conducting whatever we need to do for our national security purposes [00:07:49,899]: But the notion that they can’t innovate what gives the lie to that as if you talk to American businesses who operate in China or European businesses who operate in China what they’ll tell you is that we first came here for the market and now we come here to be close to the innovation [00:08:08,500]: That we cannot basically be in touch with the cutting edge of our field particularly in autos unless you’re here [00:08:17,820]: So China realized it could not compete with combustion vehicles with America [00:08:23,380]: And so it took the decision to leapfrog them right to EVs and ultimately autonomous driving cars [00:08:31,299]: It did so by basically having its smartphone companies become car companies [00:08:39,599]: So when I came to China after COVID I said wow when I was last here Xiaomi was a phone company [00:08:47,239]: I came back they were a car company [00:08:48,900]: When I was here last Huawei was a phone company [00:08:51,539]: I came back they were a car company [00:08:53,000]: And so basically they put their cell phones on wheels [00:08:56,700]: And the reason this is important is that when you get into a Didi Didi’s their Uber it is a seamless digital experience from the rest of your life [00:09:10,179]: It syncs up with your cell phone [00:09:12,460]: I rode in a Huawei car when I was just there and I was riding with someone from Huawei [00:09:18,719]: He took out his laptop pulled down a screen that came out of the ceiling and his laptop immediately synced with that screen [00:09:25,719]: And he was working in the car [00:09:28,419]: He says what would you like to see [00:09:29,640]: Do you want to see anything [00:09:31,239]: I said yeah [00:09:33,299]: Get me Paul Simon’s concert in London’s Hyde Park [00:09:37,640]: I’d like to watch that on the way to your campus [00:09:41,059]: It was up and I’d say about 30 seconds [00:09:44,820]: The sound Ezra you know how you buy cars now every two years [00:09:47,979]: Now I say it’s got Dolby surround yada yada [00:09:51,020]: I have never in my life heard sound like this in a moving vehicle [00:09:59,940]: It is just so far ahead of anything I’ve seen here [00:10:05,340]: Volkswagen for instance I met with their China head when I was there [00:10:10,979]: They’ve got a whole facility there they call it in China for China that unless you’re competing with the best what my friend Jorg Wittke the head of the European Union Chamber of Commerce calls the China Fitness Club unless you’re in the gym with them you’re going to get run over [00:10:30,000]: So this conversation we’re having emerges out of a conversation we had a little bit randomly on the phone [00:10:35,820]: You had just come from China and I just come back from book tour [00:10:40,039]: And we were talking about something else but then I asked you how your China trip was [00:10:44,239]: And what you said to me basically was Ezra you have no idea how screwed we are [00:10:50,219]: Yeah [00:10:52,119]: Yeah because what you see Ezra when you’re there is the product of 30 years of being in the fitness gym [00:11:03,840]: And some particularly Chinese fitness gym [00:11:06,500]: And it kind of works like this [00:11:08,960]: New industry comes along let’s call it solar panels [00:11:13,299]: Every major city in China decides they need a solar panel factory [00:11:18,580]: And the local government subsidizes it maybe domestically born maybe partnership with a foreign one maybe a foreign one [00:11:26,619]: And you end up in a very short period of time I’m making the number up but with 75 solar panel companies [00:11:34,280]: They then compete like crazy against each other in the fitness gym [00:11:38,700]: And five of them survive [00:11:41,960]: Those five are so fit that they can then go global at a price and level of innovation that is very hard for a foreign competitor to deal with [00:11:54,760]: Which is why China today basically controls the global solar panel market [00:11:58,979]: But what you also don’t see is that process of winnowing down from 100 of those solar panel companies to five produced a massive explosion of supply chains domestically to feed that industry [00:12:16,340]: Same thing went on with cars [00:12:17,719]: You know the same thing goes on with robots [00:12:19,479]: And so where you end up five years later is with interlocking set of supply chains that now if you’re a young Chinese and say I just got this idea I want to produce a shirt that has a pink polka dot button that can sing the Chinese national anthem backward [00:12:40,380]: Someone will have it for you tomorrow [00:12:43,409]: So the process you’re describing here the Chinese government identifies solar panels as an industry [00:12:52,659]: They using a variety of mechanisms absolutely flood the country with subsidized financing to become a solar panel company [00:13:00,359]: And you get very strange things here [00:13:01,940]: There was an example a couple of years back where you know one of the big real estate firms there that was in crisis tried to become an EV firm because they didn’t get a bunch of finance [00:13:12,200]: Yeah [00:13:12,719]: Yep [00:13:13,239]: China absorbs the Chinese government absorbs a huge amount of waste failure and graft [00:13:20,859]: Solyndra times a thousand [00:13:23,020]: Things we would never accept in this country [00:13:24,880]: Yes [00:13:25,400]: So a bunch of these firms just pocket money for nothing [00:13:28,799]: A bunch of them fail [00:13:30,599]: But in that on the other side of that process of failure waste graft you get these very very potent national champions they’re called that then the Chinese government puts a huge amount of resources behind [00:13:44,440]: And I want to add one other thing because it speaks to some of the trade fights we’re having [00:13:48,599]: For China to have the money to do this to not require more efficiency from their own companies and their own investments part of the way they’re doing it is keeping wages suppressed in their country [00:13:59,539]: Yes [00:14:00,320]: Part of the way they’re doing it is exporting much more than they consume [00:14:04,340]: Part of the way they’re doing it is maintaining a kind of imbalanced economy highly focused on production [00:14:11,559]: But going back to this idea of the gym the fitness like we understand in America where capitalism survival of the fittest they don’t demand that you’re very fit at the beginning [00:14:22,140]: They demand that you’re fit at the end [00:14:23,460]: We actually demand with the exception of some VC investments that are fairly you know usually fairly small scale [00:14:29,479]: We demand that you’re fit at the beginning [00:14:32,919]: It’s a very good point and I’ll give you a perfect example of that [00:14:37,080]: So there was Ford Motor today has built a battery factory in Marshall Michigan using the IRA money from the Biden administration [00:14:46,159]: That factory makes batteries for EVs [00:14:49,260]: The technology though comes from China [00:14:51,400]: It’s a company called CATL [00:14:53,549]: That CATL technology was actually born in America in the Obama administration [00:15:01,609]: People tried to scale it here then [00:15:04,369]: They failed [00:15:05,510]: The founders basically it went into bankruptcy and a Chinese entrepreneur bought it took it back to China scaled it there and is now doing tech transfer to Ford bringing it back here [00:15:18,309]: It’s a perfect example of what you’re talking about [00:15:21,570]: The lack of patience [00:15:22,989]: I want to go back then to this question of the Washington consensus [00:15:25,650]: And it’s a reason I wanted to have this conversation [00:15:28,510]: I get very nervous when both parties agree on something too much [00:15:34,349]: And what I find now is that among Democrats and Republicans alike you put it that you can’t say a nice word about China [00:15:42,890]: But I would put it as it is a completely universal belief that would be politically lethal in most cases to question if you have any national ambitions [00:15:55,049]: That openness towards China would be the right strategy [00:15:59,169]: That trying to rebuild our relationship with China would be the right strategy [00:16:02,830]: You can have Trump’s version of hostility unfathomably high tariffs very antagonistic language [00:16:10,169]: You can have sort of a more democratic version of hostility [00:16:14,210]: The Biden administration trying to wall off a bunch of advanced technologies which maybe was the right call [00:16:19,049]: Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan [00:16:20,830]: But what you can’t have is the view that even if China isn’t liberalizing that given how interconnected we already are more interconnection and an effort to pull this relationship back from the brink where both sides are ratcheting up hostility and preparing for the possibility of all out war [00:16:38,669]: That that would be the right approach [00:16:42,510]: Tell me [00:16:42,929]: Look you’ve been covering this for a long time [00:16:45,740]: Tell me how you think that consensus developed [00:16:49,760]: How did we move from where we were even under the Obama administration when they’re negotiating TPP as a way to sort of move trade away but to pivot to Asia to be more engaged [00:17:01,180]: How do we move from that space which is a much softer form of competition to what happens under Trump then Biden then Trump II which is I think one of the sharper foreign policy changes we’ve seen in recent decades [00:17:17,660]: Let me back into your question Ezra by just giving you my worldview how I think of this whole China issue [00:17:26,720]: I think that the net result of where we are as a world in terms of development right now and call this the post post Cold War era is that humanity faces basically three existential questions [00:17:43,460]: One is how we manage artificial general intelligence [00:17:47,800]: And we’re going to have to find a way to collaborate to make sure we get the best and cushion the worst out of what is going to be a new species [00:17:57,300]: That’s number one [00:17:59,220]: Second as a product of our development we have unleashed a level of climate change that we have to collaborate in order to deal with [00:18:07,720]: And thirdly I believe the combination of all these stresses is going to blow up a lot of states a lot of weak states [00:18:15,880]: And you’re going to have zones of disorder [00:18:18,480]: You already see that in some parts of the world [00:18:21,220]: My view is there are only two superpowers who can manage this but only if they collaborate the United States and China [00:18:29,260]: They can learn that early or they can learn that late [00:18:32,880]: They can learn that painlessly or painfully [00:18:36,400]: But my view is they’re going to have to learn that [00:18:39,720]: And so for me liking China not liking China it’s just not in my equation [00:18:45,800]: That is the world I think we’re going into [00:18:48,520]: I also think we’re going into a world where I think of a kind of industrial ecosystem [00:18:54,900]: So I was born into the late Industrial Revolution where the ecosystem to thrive as a country was coal steel aluminum combustion engines and combustion driven vehicles and electricity [00:19:10,000]: And you had to be playing in all of those industries to thrive [00:19:13,600]: I think the world we’re going into the ecosystem to thrive is going to be robots electric batteries artificial intelligence EVs electric vehicles and autonomous driving cars [00:19:25,980]: That ecosystem will be the flywheel that’s going to drive everything [00:19:30,260]: And therefore to me as an American it’s essential that we play in that ecosystem and that we be able to compete head to head with China in that ecosystem [00:19:42,280]: So that’s how I’m coming at this problem [00:19:44,620]: I’m not even thinking about Taiwan [00:19:46,780]: I’m not thinking about communism or capital [00:19:49,400]: I mean you know I quoted a Trump official a while back who said you know China’s goal in the world is to spread authoritarian Marxism [00:19:57,800]: Oh my God [00:19:59,060]: China’s got a lot of goals in the world Ezra but one of them is not spreading authoritarian Marxism OK [00:20:04,740]: They’re trying to spread muskism not Marxism [00:20:07,620]: That’s the game they’re trying to beat us at [00:20:09,420]: They’re trying to beat us at our game not Karl Marx’s game [00:20:12,540]: And we need to understand that and be serious about it [00:20:15,800]: And the last thing I’d say given those are the industries we need to be in this China thing this country you can love them or hate them [00:20:26,280]: Believe me I do both every you know every day [00:20:29,520]: But these are serious people OK [00:20:32,780]: They’re messing around like you’ve just seen Donald Trump mess around for the last week [00:20:37,300]: And they don’t hire knuckleheads and put them into key positions for the most part OK [00:20:44,640]: So those are all the biases I’m coming to this story with [00:20:48,300]: Then I walk into the Washington debate you know and it’s are you a panda hugger [00:20:53,060]: Are you not a panda hugger [00:20:54,200]: Did you say something nice about China or not nice about China [00:20:57,780]: And I just I run away with my hair on fire because it’s just not about the world I see us going into a world I want America to thrive in and a world where I think to thrive we need to be serious about these issues [00:21:12,780]: Let me try to steel man what I think happened in the Washington consensus which is and I’ve talked to many Democrats about this but they would say Tom Friedman is naive that there was a bill of goods sold and the bill of goods had a couple parts to it [00:21:35,560]: One is that if we welcome China into the global trading order they would trade more they would get richer they would consume more and they would also liberalize [00:21:44,740]: They did get richer but they have kept domestic consumption depressed through a bunch of different policies and they become more authoritarian under Xi which you mentioned but it’s a big deal here [00:21:56,500]: You’ve had profound human rights abuses like with the Uyghurs [00:22:00,820]: But deeper than that you’re very dismissive of this idea that the Chinese Communist Party at its core is an ideological project meant to spread Chinese power and communist ideology [00:22:16,810]: They say no if you really look into it and the way he rules and the kinds of study sessions he makes people go through that this is very much an ideological expansionist power [00:22:28,160]: The idea of the Thucydides trap becomes very common right [00:22:31,340]: That there are these two superpowers and there can be only one eventually and we need to be prepared for that [00:22:36,680]: And that what we’ve ultimately been doing here is weakening ourselves and strengthening China [00:22:42,800]: Our industrial base has moved too much to China [00:22:44,940]: We’re too dependent on them for supply [00:22:46,600]: And I think this really all comes to a head after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when people see how the dependence on Russian natural gas weakened Europe and the world’s response [00:22:57,640]: And the feeling becomes China is more dangerous than we’ve given it credit for [00:23:01,960]: It has grown its industrial base at our expense without becoming the sort of good actor both domestically and in the international political system we were promised [00:23:12,820]: And we cannot allow ourselves to be in a position in the future where we are in some kind of war or conflict with China [00:23:20,220]: And yet we are looking to them to make all of the things we need to compete with them [00:23:27,780]: And as such what you need to do is decouple [00:23:30,180]: And you need to understand them as an antagonistic power that we treat as a hostile enemy [00:23:34,600]: That is my account of how the center of gravity changed [00:23:39,380]: I think what I just told you would be the thing that many Democrats in Congress would tell you not just Republicans [00:23:46,640]: Yes [00:23:47,220]: What is wrong with it [00:23:49,040]: Well I would say I only can speak for myself [00:23:51,520]: I actually supported Trump’s tariffs the first time around [00:23:56,360]: In fact I wrote a column saying Donald Trump is not the American president Americans deserve but he is the American president China deserve [00:24:05,180]: Somebody had to call the game [00:24:06,700]: So I have a lot of sympathy with that view at one level [00:24:13,360]: And the other thing I would say Israel I will confess something here on your show [00:24:20,340]: Whether I’m writing about China from Washington or whether I’m writing about China from China I’m always just writing about America [00:24:29,200]: My goal is to use China as my permanent Sputnik helping people understand what a formidable engine this is however they got there [00:24:39,420]: And that if we aren’t serious then we’re going to get steamrolled [00:24:45,980]: Here’s one of the things that I think deranges a bit the U S debate on China which is that two things are happening at the same time that we have trouble seeing at the same time [00:25:03,100]: One is that conventional wisdom at the end of the Biden administration is China’s doing quite badly [00:25:06,840]: They are not escaping the middle income trap [00:25:08,920]: They have not raised living standards in the way people thought they would [00:25:12,400]: Xi’s zero COVID policies went on way too long and were authoritarian in a very extreme fashion [00:25:18,460]: There was this state sponsored crackdown on tech companies and a bunch of other parts of Chinese life [00:25:25,720]: And there’s a real feeling that America was in a stronger position and they were in a weaker one [00:25:30,240]: The thing that was missed in that is the thing that you’re pointing out in some of these columns that we sort of imagine because this is how it has worked here that the sophistication of the economy and what it can create and the living standards that that economy generates for its own people will be very tightly linked [00:25:49,000]: And so as their living standards have not advanced in the way we thought I think a view took hold that the Chinese experiment was not working out [00:25:58,620]: At the same time if you go and look at what they are creating and their factories and their industrial base they are at the forefront of a series of technologies [00:26:08,340]: They are competing with us within months on AI right [00:26:11,420]: The AI timelines for the two countries are months apart if that [00:26:14,840]: And then as you’ve mentioned they’re probably ahead of us at this point on batteries on electric vehicles [00:26:19,740]: Oh we’re not even close yeah [00:26:20,860]: And on the ability to spin up highly complex supply chains [00:26:26,440]: I guess the question here is how can those two things coexist in this way [00:26:31,220]: It’s a question I ask every trip and did on this one as well [00:26:35,880]: And the answer is a combination of things partly culture and partly just not understanding how the systems work [00:26:46,080]: As a general rule not in every case but as a general rule if you have an idea to start a company there’s actually not a lot standing in your way [00:26:55,740]: The government’s not going to interfere with that [00:26:57,280]: In fact it may help you far more than any local or state or national government would do here [00:27:02,760]: If you want to write an op ed piece condemning Xi Jinping that’ll be the last op ed piece you write [00:27:09,660]: So those two things are very decoupled there [00:27:13,740]: Not only that China has a Mandarin tradition going back a long way [00:27:19,180]: People want to work in the government have to take a test [00:27:22,300]: And it’s a very meritocratic test [00:27:24,480]: And the product of that is on the whole OK as a generalization the deep state there actually is pretty good quite responsive when it comes to backing innovation [00:27:38,940]: It’s also very good at arresting you if you get out of line [00:27:44,460]: But that’s how these things go together [00:27:46,880]: So if Ezra does decide he wants to make sure it’s with that pink polka dot button that can sing the Chinese national anthem backwards not only can he get that button overnight but no one will stand in the way [00:28:01,260]: In fact you may find a lot of sources of capital locally to produce that button [00:28:05,780]: And at the same time if you want that button to sing Tiananmen Square in 1989 over and again you’re going to get arrested [00:28:14,660]: But those two things actually exist side by side [00:28:18,760]: I think people are used to thinking about the pink backpack with a button [00:28:22,820]: I think they’re not used to thinking about the dark factory or the new Huawei campus [00:28:29,460]: What is a dark factory and what is it like to be in one [00:28:32,820]: And what was that Huawei campus that you went to like [00:28:35,860]: And what did you take away from that experience [00:28:37,680]: The dark factories are fully roboticized factories [00:28:41,220]: So they’re dark [00:28:42,240]: They don’t need to turn the lights on [00:28:44,120]: Except the two and three in the morning when the engineers come in and clean the machines [00:28:48,560]: There are dark factories all over China today [00:28:52,380]: The Huawei campus was built in three years to house 35 000 researchers including Ezra foreign ones that they hope to recruit [00:29:06,720]: Had 100 different cafes [00:29:09,080]: Each building was distinctly designed has a monorail you know a beautiful lawn campus [00:29:18,060]: By the way I’ve been to Huawei’s headquarters in Shenzhen [00:29:20,240]: I have no illusions about Huawei written about them [00:29:22,780]: They stole stuff [00:29:24,400]: They have not been at all good actors [00:29:28,120]: But today we tried to kill Huawei in the United States [00:29:32,820]: I mean we tried to deny them the chips and they went almost went into the tank [00:29:37,980]: And they innovated their way out [00:29:40,540]: Maybe they stole those chips from NVIDIA somewhere [00:29:42,940]: I have no idea [00:29:44,340]: All I know is today the same day that Josh Hawley declared that China can’t do innovation Huawei reported record profits on CNBC with some very new technology [00:29:59,860]: And again my job is to take the world as it is [00:30:05,740]: All right [00:30:06,080]: And the way the world is right now is however China got there it’s there [00:30:09,840]: And if you don’t think it’s there then you are really missing something [00:30:14,840]: Well that maybe gets us to current policy [00:30:17,840]: It’s very hard right now to podcast about trade policy [00:30:21,500]: We’re recording this on Wednesday April 9th [00:30:24,000]: It’ll come out Tuesday of next week [00:30:25,620]: So six days [00:30:26,860]: God knows what will happen if we recorded this morning [00:30:29,220]: It would have been a different podcast than it is now [00:30:31,180]: But after tanking global markets for a week then beginning to see the U S bond markets unravel the Trump administration backed off paused did a 90 day pause on tariffs on countries that have not retaliated which is just a generally strange concept [00:30:52,320]: But double down on Chinese tariffs right [00:30:55,660]: I think it’s up to 125 percent something in that range [00:30:58,460]: China is retaliating against us [00:31:02,680]: The Trump administration’s broad view articulated by J D [00:31:06,660]: Vance and others is that at the center of their entire trade strategy has been that we need to build all this in America again not amidst all of our friends right [00:31:16,540]: The Biden administration had a friend sharing strategy [00:31:18,900]: But Howard Lutnick the Secretary of Commerce he talked about his vision and that the way to do this is very high tariffs incredibly high on China specifically but also very frankly on the rest of the world because what you’re trying to do is bring it all back here [00:31:36,480]: And that is a way of making us capable of competing with China [00:31:41,420]: There is a series of papers out there that make this argument that China has a kind of hegemonic level of dominance over global manufacturing [00:31:50,540]: They’re not the only manufacturers but they have primacy there [00:31:53,820]: And we have it on the financial architecture of the world [00:31:58,060]: And what you know in this theory what Trump and his team are trying to do is take manufacturing back from China [00:32:06,680]: Do you think their theory makes sense [00:32:12,880]: Hire clowns expect a circus OK [00:32:15,440]: If that is your theory OK then go ahead put all the tariffs a thousand percent on China [00:32:25,320]: That’s day one [00:32:27,100]: But these guys are entirely first order thinkers [00:32:31,740]: Day two has to be a strategy for what you do the morning after here [00:32:36,760]: How do you then build the industrial base that you want to take advantage of the time you’re buying with your tariffs [00:32:44,900]: So what are these guys doing [00:32:47,740]: Trump put up a wall OK against China and then they went out and shot the American car companies [00:32:55,393]: Ford was just downgraded today [00:32:57,353]: I saw its stock I think it was down to 7 50 [00:33:00,413]: Why is that [00:33:01,553]: Because Ford did everything that Biden asked it to do that irrational company would ask it to do that we would want it to do [00:33:08,873]: And then what does Donald Trump do [00:33:11,013]: He comes in with his right wing woke bullshit and says we don’t do EVs here [00:33:16,933]: EVs are for girly men [00:33:19,053]: We only do manly industries [00:33:21,193]: Well fuck that okay [00:33:22,913]: Because look what happens now to Ford [00:33:26,813]: So you say we wanna bring this here [00:33:28,433]: I don’t want my kids screwing in parts okay into cars [00:33:34,733]: I want them designing okay investing in and inventing the next generation of EVs [00:33:40,693]: But let’s go back to that ecosystem I talked about Ezra [00:33:44,133]: EVs robots autonomous cars batteries clean energy [00:33:48,273]: If you say oh we’re not to do the EV part [00:33:51,393]: Before I came over here I read Trump wants to reopen coal plants and he loves drill baby drill [00:33:58,413]: Okay so it doesn’t make any sense [00:34:00,813]: You’re building a wall against China [00:34:02,713]: Great I’m all for it but what are you doing behind the wall [00:34:05,933]: So we catch up you’re taking your own companies out and shooting them in the back if they’re not right wing woke [00:34:11,693]: What’s the project what the Trump administration focus on [00:34:15,053]: How many billions can we take away from American universities of their research funds to punish them for DEI strategies [00:34:23,733]: Now I’m here not to advocate DEI but if I had a limited time in the world right now I sure wouldn’t be focused on that [00:34:31,373]: I’d be focused on doubling down on the research capacity of these universities [00:34:35,633]: I’d be doubling down on NIH [00:34:37,853]: What are they doing [00:34:38,733]: They’re cutting the budgets of our crown gem research facilities [00:34:42,873]: So it’s all just bullshit [00:34:45,913]: They’re not serious people [00:34:47,793]: They’re clowns [00:34:49,993]: But you are not all for building a wall with China [00:34:53,633]: You’re making an argument that even among Democrats I think is somewhat more subversive right now which is that if you were a serious person you would do with China what we did with Japan in the 90s which is by the way when Donald Trump came up with all of his trade theories this guy’s had the same opinions on everything for decades and decades now [00:35:13,973]: What we did with Japan is we brought in their car companies here and we learned from them [00:35:18,913]: What China did with us was they brought in our manufacturers and they learned from them [00:35:22,613]: And what you are saying is that if you take seriously how good China has gotten at manufacturing then what you would try to do is begin bringing in its factories here as the condition of access to our market to learn from them [00:35:40,893]: Exactly [00:35:41,493]: You should do 50 50 joint ventures with Xiaomi [00:35:46,093]: You can build your cars here 50 50 joint venture number one and number two [00:35:51,793]: You have to build your supply chain here as well [00:35:54,213]: So you’re not gonna just bring all the parts in from China [00:35:57,313]: You gotta build the supply chain and the factory here joint owned exactly what you did to us [00:36:04,533]: But I argued for this before with Huawei [00:36:07,533]: Huawei has a very dodgy past and they’ve been involved in all kinds of lawsuits with different companies over IP [00:36:16,313]: So what I said at one point was I would say to Huawei here’s the deal [00:36:20,693]: We’re gonna let you wire Wyoming Montana and Idaho [00:36:26,173]: You can sell your technology in those three states [00:36:29,053]: We’re gonna watch you for three years [00:36:30,953]: We’re gonna see how you handle that [00:36:32,333]: We’ll see how you handle the data [00:36:33,713]: If you do well we’re gonna give you to other states [00:36:36,873]: We created no incentive for them to be a better actor [00:36:42,673]: There was no ladder up or out at all [00:36:45,053]: We just then tried to kill them and their response was you talking to me [00:36:50,133]: You talking to me [00:36:52,333]: And they now went out got into the fitness gym and they might kill us [00:36:59,853]: So if all Trump is doing right now is right today I don’t know I’ve lost track what the tariff is on China [00:37:05,393]: We may be getting toward infinity I have no idea [00:37:08,993]: But if behind that is a strategy to basically do what we did the other way I’m all for it [00:37:19,693]: But if the strategy is to only build a wall so we can go back to digging coal and only depending on oil and killing the wind business and killing the EV business then this is gonna end in such a disaster [00:37:36,893]: All right that’s the immediate problem [00:37:38,293]: You have another problem coming down the road with AI [00:37:41,453]: And AI is going to be injected into everything okay [00:37:46,253]: From your car to your toaster to your refrigerator and maybe even your body [00:37:50,793]: If we and China don’t have a trusted architecture for managing AI then everything Ezra is gonna become TikTok [00:38:01,093]: And this whole debate we’re having oh TikTok can we have it [00:38:03,793]: They’re listening to us [00:38:04,673]: What are they doing with the data [00:38:06,093]: That’s gonna apply to your toaster to your tennis shoes to your car [00:38:10,453]: And so that’s coming down the road [00:38:12,993]: But that’s already here [00:38:14,033]: They don’t allow our major technology firms there [00:38:16,933]: And with the exception of TikTok really we don’t allow theirs here [00:38:21,793]: We are the governing I always say with AI policy there are three goals [00:38:26,773]: Make it safe make it fast and make it ours [00:38:28,633]: And make it ours is always the goal that wins [00:38:31,193]: In every conversation in the Biden administration in the Trump administration make it ours [00:38:34,513]: Which means by the way we are racing much quicker than we should be to make it safe [00:38:40,373]: Because make it fast then becomes the overriding objective [00:38:45,093]: And so we’re already there [00:38:48,573]: And you will sever these two AIs off from each other these two AI branches off from each other [00:38:54,273]: You’ve already to a large degree severed the two internets off from each other [00:38:57,433]: You are going to have this world where you do bifurcate [00:39:05,173]: And there’s something interesting about that too that I’ve been we are probably by most accounts a little bit ahead of them on AI but not by much at this point [00:39:14,073]: But they have something increasingly that we don’t which is a digitized structure for their economy and for the integration of their economy with manufacturing and other things but particularly payments communications et cetera that you could embed AI in very very rapidly [00:39:33,713]: When Elon Musk talks about making the app formerly known as Twitter the everything app what he wants it to be is what China already has which is these apps that do communications and payments and all these different things [00:39:45,553]: And then if you embedded AI into them which they’re doing you have much more surface area of the economy that you can optimize very very very fast [00:39:57,973]: So that was the theme of my column that they have massively digitized [00:40:03,113]: It’s a cashless society now [00:40:05,973]: You have beggars with a QR code in their begging bowl [00:40:09,593]: We went I went with my colleague Keith Bradshaw to Zeker one of their new car companies [00:40:14,093]: We went into the design lab watched a designer doing a 3D model of one of their new cars putting it in different contexts desert rainforest beach different weather conditions [00:40:29,213]: And we asked him what software you were using [00:40:33,253]: We thought it was just some traditional CAD design [00:40:35,753]: He said it’s open source AI 3D design tool [00:40:42,773]: He said what used to take him three months he now does in three hours [00:40:48,333]: Three months to three hours because they have such a digital connected system you just take that hypodermic needle fill it with AI and inject it into it and it can optimize so many things [00:41:01,973]: And it’s for all these reasons that I’m worried about the bifurcated world [00:41:08,673]: I’m worried about that [00:41:09,953]: That world is not gonna be at all stable or at all prosperous in anywhere near the last 40 years [00:41:18,593]: And so if I have a choice my choice is to argue and I don’t care if I’m the only one arguing for it that we and China are gonna have to get together and actually be the partners that create an architecture for this [00:41:36,393]: Otherwise we’re gonna just keep racing each other in some kind of crazy AI version of nuclear probably bankrupt ourselves in doing it [00:41:46,433]: And this gets to my gut feeling about the whole world we’re going into once we get to AGI Ezra which is that I think to manage this world climate AI and disorder we are gonna have to learn to collaborate as a species to a degree that we have never collaborated before [00:42:07,793]: I am a big believer in my friend Dov Seidman’s argument that interdependence is no longer our choice it’s our condition [00:42:15,693]: The only question is will we have healthy interdependencies or unhealthy interdependencies but we are gonna rise together or we’re gonna fall together [00:42:25,493]: But baby whatever we’re doing we’re doing it together [00:42:29,393]: That is my view [00:42:30,513]: I don’t know if that’s true though [00:42:32,093]: I mean one cut look you’re much more of a student of international relations and history than I am but countries can rise and fall separately [00:42:40,573]: Superpowers decline and others rise [00:42:43,453]: You know Japan was gonna be the next great power [00:42:46,153]: Now it’s an aging society that is in much more trouble [00:42:50,593]: One of the ways of thinking about this that has been on my mind watching the Trump administration light the confidence the rest of the world has had in America on fire and call it greatness is this idea that China’s strength is manufacturing and America’s strength which we deride is financial [00:43:16,113]: One of the lessons of all history is he who controls the financing controls the world [00:43:24,633]: And what the Trump administration I think thinks it’s doing is taking back manufacturing from China [00:43:31,553]: I don’t think it’s gonna do it but what they’re definitely gonna do I think is make it possible for China to take financial share from us because people are not going to trust us anymore [00:43:42,673]: If we can tariff them at any moment and will at any whim they will try to unwind themselves from being part of our architecture of financial dominance [00:43:52,153]: And it is an extraordinary source of American power but if you use it too much then people will voluntarily release themselves from it because they are voluntarily part of it [00:44:02,353]: China’s very very sophisticated payment structures [00:44:04,673]: It has the capacity to lend a lot of money [00:44:07,713]: It is playing itself up right now as a more stable player in international affairs [00:44:12,713]: It is trying to create closer relationships with Europe with Japan with South Korea with a lot of people and countries that it has traditionally had very rough relationships with [00:44:23,593]: And so I don’t think we’re necessarily gonna rise and fall together [00:44:27,213]: I think that I mean if you told me that Trump was a Manchurian candidate and you had evidence of it it would be very hard for me to refute [00:44:35,513]: Like what would the Manchurian candidate do if not this [00:44:39,813]: Look let’s go back to what would you be doing if you were serious on trade [00:44:42,993]: The first thing you would be doing is saying to the Chinese you now manufacture about a third of all products in the world [00:44:50,593]: That is not sustainable [00:44:52,073]: You can’t make everything for everyone [00:44:54,933]: You have got to leverage out leaven out your economy you know to be retired in China is to get like a 5 a month pension [00:45:03,913]: And you’ve got to be using that energy domestically and buying more from others [00:45:09,993]: The conversation has to start there [00:45:12,013]: They are making too much and we are consuming too much as well [00:45:15,313]: So why don’t we then get our friends and sit down with China as a united front the European Union Korea Singapore Japan the Philippines and make it the world against China on this issue [00:45:31,933]: You would have told them over the next three years we’re going to gradually be raising tariffs 15 20 30 each year [00:45:40,373]: So you can know what’s coming but we’re gonna keep doing that as a collective [00:45:44,013]: And then behind that wall you would be offering them one the opportunity to invest in America [00:45:50,353]: And two you would be serious about that ecosystem I talked about and giving our government our company’s incentives doing everything we can to get the infrastructure and opportunities for that ecosystem to get going [00:46:03,353]: That would be the rational thing [00:46:05,153]: What did Trump do [00:46:06,353]: He made it America against the world the whole world at the same time [00:46:10,713]: So he actually threw away our single greatest competitive advantage over China which is that we have allies and China has vassals [00:46:18,953]: Our colleague David Brooks likes to say Trump is always the wrong answer to the right question [00:46:25,773]: So I wanna note something that I think is a useful way of thinking about trade here that I think there’s been this problem that people keep trying to illustrate a more sophisticated architecture around Donald Trump’s thinking than is actually there [00:46:42,373]: Yes [00:46:42,613]: And one of the things they’ll reach for is this issue with China [00:46:46,313]: China makes about a third of the world’s goods [00:46:48,153]: As you mentioned they’re on track to make about 45 of it in the 2030s [00:46:52,893]: And if I’m remembering the number right I think they account for something like 12 of consumption [00:46:58,593]: 12 [00:46:59,553]: Now that’s hugely imbalanced [00:47:02,633]: For a country that big to be that imbalanced between production and consumption creates an instability across the entire global system [00:47:13,473]: One of the completely idiotic things that even skeptics of our relationship with China have been appalled by that the Trump trade effort has attempted is to treat everything in terms of bilateral trade between America and other countries as if we should have a balanced trade account with Vietnam [00:47:31,873]: What do we make with our advanced manufacturing that the Vietnamese are going to buy [00:47:38,253]: It’s a completely insane way to look at the world [00:47:41,073]: But you do wanna think particularly in the very very very big players about global imbalances [00:47:47,693]: Because if there are huge global imbalances not just like individual bilateral ones like then you have a bit of a problem [00:47:56,193]: And this is where you might’ve imagined the world to put pressure on China [00:48:02,673]: Not that they need to manufacture less but they need to consume more [00:48:07,793]: More of their manufacturing needs to be consumed domestically [00:48:10,173]: And then more of their capacity needs to be shared with the rest of the world to maintain access to these markets [00:48:15,553]: But this idea that we’re gonna infuriate every other country along the way it’s just a very strange way to think about power [00:48:24,903]: When your biggest fear is that China’s becoming a compelling alternative to you you’re gonna make yourself a less compelling alternative to them to the rest of the world [00:48:34,473]: As you have to understand okay today Trump on my way over here he decided he’s gonna pause the tariffs and whatnot [00:48:40,793]: Lesotho doesn’t have to worry [00:48:44,073]: What he is missing is the world but China in particular thinks he’s an unstable actor [00:48:51,827]: They look at what’s going on here they watch that Zelensky meeting in the Oval Office and they have watched that Trump tore up a basically successor agreement to NAFTA that he negotiated with our two closest neighbors [00:49:05,547]: And they’re saying to themselves two things [00:49:07,247]: One is how do we even get in a room our leader get in a room with this guy we don’t know what he’s gonna say [00:49:11,947]: And number two say we do do an agreement with him [00:49:14,427]: He could tear it up the next day [00:49:16,227]: So he always thinks he’s being cute like this is some he’s buying some apartment block on Long Island and he can kind of do whatever he wants [00:49:27,127]: This is a big game [00:49:28,607]: And they don’t think he’s a stable actor anymore [00:49:32,007]: There’s been a real cost for this back and forth [00:49:34,747]: Hey I’m glad the stock market went back up today but don’t think this has been cost free [00:49:40,507]: I am livid about this particular thing [00:49:43,107]: So the press secretary the White House press secretary today said to the media I guess a bunch of you didn’t read the art of the deal [00:49:50,307]: When he pulled off the or did a 90 day pause [00:49:53,587]: There was no deal [00:49:55,407]: We didn’t get anything [00:49:57,227]: We vaporized a huge amount of wealth [00:50:00,027]: We have created a signal that everybody else should trust us less and fortify themselves against these tariffs coming back in 90 days [00:50:09,127]: Trump has become himself far less popular [00:50:11,367]: We’ve put the financial system under a lot of strain [00:50:13,707]: We have frozen a huge amount of future investment [00:50:17,287]: This idea that you act the madman in order to get these extraordinary concessions we didn’t get any concessions [00:50:26,047]: And even if over the I guess maybe the idea here would be we showed we’re serious [00:50:31,187]: And so people will come to us and offer I don’t know if you’re Vietnam to buy more of our something [00:50:41,947]: We got nothing [00:50:44,387]: What we did was we lit a lot of our political capital and geopolitical capital on fire [00:50:50,527]: And we are calling that a victory [00:50:52,647]: But also Trump has now shown that there is a place he can’t go [00:50:57,927]: So his leverage over the rest of the world just diminished because what the world just learned is that he actually can’t destroy his own bond market [00:51:06,927]: So if he tries to do this again and the world does not wanna be pushed around by us they can wait us out [00:51:12,127]: Now there’s a concentrating issue with China and we’ll see how that plays out [00:51:17,027]: But there was no deal made here [00:51:20,187]: There was as you say worse than no deal [00:51:23,767]: We shot ourselves in both feet [00:51:26,947]: And now we are in a much less powerful position because we’ve alienated all those allies we need to create leverage on China in the future [00:51:37,127]: And so it’s an unmitigated disaster [00:51:41,087]: I wanna pick up on the Washington consensus again because we’re talking about Donald Trump and I think it’s fair to say we agree that his policies here are dumb and destructive [00:51:51,527]: But there is the issue of the consensus again [00:51:55,987]: And even today Gretchen Whitmer the Democratic governor of Michigan somebody many people think will run in 2028 she was out giving a speech and basically saying look I don’t agree with how Trump is doing it but in general tariffs are important [00:52:10,187]: We don’t produce enough here we produce too much there [00:52:13,307]: I have talked to many Democrats who they will say that they don’t agree with how Donald Trump is doing it but he’s sort of right about China [00:52:23,547]: And my worry again is that they are wrong [00:52:27,027]: They are trying to compete with the China of 15 years ago when maybe you could have tariffed your way out of it [00:52:32,077]: And that the impulse Democrats have on China is to be Trump light [00:52:41,527]: That there is no one making a case for openness right [00:52:45,387]: Even if you don’t believe in that case I think it’d be healthy for some people aside from maybe just you to be making it but also no sense that the technology transfer might now need to go in the other direction [00:52:57,527]: And I guess the final thing that worries me is that there is the possibility for the relationship to call into existence the thing that it is supposedly preparing for [00:53:10,627]: Even during the Biden administration when they’re beginning to build technological walls you know a lot of the reporting I saw suggested I think quite reasonably that China understood that as Washington coming to the view that it would try to force China’s progress to slow that it would never allow it to achieve not even expansionary or hostile ambitions just development at the frontier of technology [00:53:38,207]: And the agreement in Washington that China should be treated as an antagonist certainly has a possibility of making China more of an antagonist because well don’t they then have to treat us as more of an antagonist [00:53:50,507]: And I’m not trying to take responsibility off of them [00:53:53,227]: They have done plenty wrong there too [00:53:56,087]: But I worry that we are careening towards a world where the tit for tit and the tat for tat almost ensures a future of hostility [00:54:05,507]: And neither side seems in any way interested in even defining what an off ramp from that might look like [00:54:12,967]: So let me respond in two ways [00:54:15,707]: I wanna go back first to the point we were discussing about just the unseriousness of this administration [00:54:22,547]: At the height of I guess it was 48 hours ago the morning after Trump announced he was putting this massive tariff on China when the markets really melted down I actually called our editors and said not the most important story of the day not the most disturbing story of the day [00:54:47,147]: Please don’t lose sight of this story [00:54:51,007]: On the day before we learned or maybe in the same day that Laura Loomer a conspiracy peddler who believes 9 11 was an inside job was in the Oval Office and we have since learned apparently or reportedly urged Trump to fire the head of our National Security Agency and his deputy two of the most respected intelligence professionals in the world because they weren’t pro Trump enough [00:55:24,247]: Who knows what it was Ezra [00:55:26,007]: And Trump did that [00:55:27,347]: They fired the head of our basically our two of our most important cyber warriors defenders and warriors widely respected around the world [00:55:39,607]: He did that on the advice of a political witch doctor [00:55:46,707]: Holy mackerel [00:55:48,607]: I mean it’s market up or down how can we be a serious country [00:55:53,947]: Because that then talk about things that filter down that then filters down through the whole bureaucracy [00:55:59,587]: Can I offer up intelligence that Trump will not like [00:56:04,367]: So that’s to me just we have to get that in there [00:56:07,347]: For a useful comparison here I think that just jogged for me [00:56:11,927]: When two years ago we were going through the decline in conventional wisdom about China’s prospects one of the big things that was driving that was that Xi Jinping had embarked on a campaign of humiliating firing it appeared even sometimes disappearing members of the party the Communist Party and leading tech executives like Alibaba’s Jack Ma who had displeased him [00:56:41,027]: And the sense was from the outside China is weakening because the thing it has had which is competent government that is willing to absorb internal disagreement and wants to see its top entrepreneurs and CEOs succeed is collapsing into a peevish dictatorship [00:56:58,987]: Now Jack Ma is back in the good graces and Xi Jinping is trying not to destroy China’s tech sector and is giving warm speeches to rooms that include Ma now [00:57:08,647]: And we are doing the other thing [00:57:11,307]: We are we Donald Trump Elon Musk on a campaign of retribution throughout the federal government on a campaign of retribution against CEOs and universities and members of civil society who have angered the administration [00:57:26,347]: It is we now who seem to not care about how competent people are or what success they’ve achieved or what kind of linchpin they are in our national strategy [00:57:36,627]: We are doing the exact thing that not that long ago people like me were sharply downgrading their estimation of China’s future prospects on [00:57:46,107]: China’s reversed course but we’re just getting started with our cultural revolution [00:57:50,407]: Yeah which is why on my trip I can’t tell how many people asked me are you having a Maoist cultural revolution of right my words right wing wokest basically [00:58:01,707]: And I because what was the revolution the cultural revolution [00:58:06,387]: It was Mao unleashing his ideological youth to tear apart basically the deep state in China [00:58:14,487]: And it didn’t end well [00:58:17,127]: It set China back you know it went on for a decade and God knows how much it set China back [00:58:23,447]: And so I just couldn’t agree more Ezra [00:58:27,847]: It’s one of the things that so troubled me watching this happen [00:58:31,807]: But I wanna go back to your other point [00:58:34,887]: I’m not running for office but if I were as a Democrat I would not be doing Trump lite [00:58:43,807]: I would provide this comprehensive alternative of leveraging our allies setting down conditions long term tariffs on China gradually implemented behind which we invest in the ecosystem of the 21st century with government help as much as we can and taking a long view because we got into this the long way we’re not gonna get out of it the short way [00:59:09,747]: Well it gets to a question I rarely hear asked which is what should the goal be [00:59:15,707]: What is the aim of all this policy [00:59:18,387]: And I think most of the time in a conversation that is quietly structured by this Thucydides trap idea this idea that there can be only one it’s that the goal of our policy is to make sure China in wealth and might and strength never surpasses us right [00:59:39,727]: That the goal is to keep ourselves ahead or to keep them down as opposed to the goal being our own strength and partnership [00:59:50,407]: And I think that you could listen to that and say well wouldn’t that be naive to have partnership [00:59:55,547]: But Europe’s strength isn’t bad for us [00:59:58,487]: The fact that Nova Nordis has created an extraordinary class of GLP 1 drugs is not a bad thing [01:00:05,507]: And honestly I would like to be able to buy excellent cheaper electric vehicles [01:00:10,907]: I’ve never been particularly on board with the Biden administration’s tariffs on that [01:00:14,227]: It’s always seemed to me that this idea that you were gonna choose in the way they did that your competition with China was gonna completely overwhelm your electric vehicle transition suggested maybe you were not as worried about decarbonization on the timeline as they said they were [01:00:30,667]: But I recognize these are difficult choices but they do reflect this question which is is the end game here a relationship between two prosperous superpowers or is the end game here we are trying to isolate China and keep it from becoming the superpower it might otherwise be because we believe coexistence to be fundamentally impossible [01:00:54,527]: And I think if you’re getting people to speak honestly now what is most changed in the Washington conversation about the two countries is that almost all the key figures in Washington now believe the latter [01:01:06,087]: They believe coexistence is impossible [01:01:07,967]: And so you are just in an all out fight for power and that AGI supercharges the need to win that competition because whoever gets to that first is gonna have a huge advantage over the other [01:01:21,027]: It sounds to me like what you’re saying is the goal should be the other thing [01:01:24,507]: The goal should be the other thing [01:01:25,727]: And I am happy to be the advocate of it [01:01:29,047]: I don’t actually think as I think the other we just saw a little snapshot of what the other looks like [01:01:35,707]: And I think we’re gonna grind ourselves up [01:01:38,987]: I think we’re going to make ourselves less stable less prosperous and less able to manage the three key challenges of the 21st century climate a trust architecture for AI and disorder [01:01:54,167]: And so I’m perfectly ready to be called naive idealistic but just don’t say I haven’t done my homework because I have [01:02:08,727]: Let me ask as we come to a close here you’ve had two pretty significant trips to China in the last year [01:02:15,927]: You’ve had many many many more behind that [01:02:20,047]: On these trips what was the thing you heard most that worried you most [01:02:25,247]: Or what was a meeting you had or the thing you saw that shifted your perspective the most [01:02:31,907]: What do those of us who have not been there in some time or have never gone what are we not seeing or hearing [01:02:38,507]: I travel with my colleague Keith Bradshaw [01:02:40,667]: Our colleague Keith Bradshaw has been in China for 23 years and we interviewed two professors who will go nameless [01:02:49,647]: Both super pro American study actually the United States [01:02:54,687]: One of them told us on his last trip to America as he was leaving got to the gate got pulled aside by what he assumed were FBI officers taken into a room give us your phone [01:03:08,227]: The other one when he arrived got pulled aside taken into a room give us your phone [01:03:16,907]: And if that’s where we’re going we’re going to a bad place [01:03:21,727]: And if we’re going to that place because that word gets out immediately [01:03:26,347]: Boy last time I was there I got pulled aside by the FBI [01:03:29,147]: Well that word gets out [01:03:30,567]: Then everyone says I don’t want my kids to study there [01:03:32,807]: I don’t wanna travel there [01:03:34,387]: I don’t wanna be tourism there [01:03:37,807]: And we’re gonna make it a self fulfilling prophecy [01:03:40,967]: You know there’s a joke among the Chinese that the whole war this is a little ethnocentric nationalism the whole conflict is actually our Chinese versus their Chinese [01:03:50,907]: You know one of the things Henry Kissinger is a very controversial figure in history [01:03:55,667]: We know for all kinds of things from the Cambodia bombing [01:03:58,327]: But I would say he is missed right now in one sense [01:04:01,927]: He was a Republican who understood the importance of this relationship [01:04:05,767]: And his last book was about AI which he wrote with Craig Mundy and Eric Schmidt [01:04:10,107]: The Republican Party has no sort of credible authority figure right now that can actually they have to listen to [01:04:20,007]: And so it becomes just this competition for who can outbash China [01:04:25,447]: And that just doesn’t end well [01:04:28,987]: But I can’t emphasize to you more Ezra when I go to China I’m writing about America [01:04:35,847]: I’m trying to hold a mirror up of what it looks like to be serious about that 21st century ecosystem [01:04:43,527]: And I’m doing it for my kids and my grandkids [01:04:47,027]: And you can call me whatever name you want because I’m not listening [01:04:52,527]: Then always our final question [01:04:54,567]: What are the books you’d recommend to the audience [01:04:56,747]: Oh I forgot [01:04:59,547]: I’ll tell you I had four I had the good fortune of speaking at this conference with Yuval Noah Harari [01:05:11,127]: And he was so good because his whole talk was about trust and how and whether we’re gonna learn to re inject some trust into this relationship [01:05:22,887]: And so my book recommendations or my thought is I got to go home and reread all of his books [01:05:30,427]: Tom Friedman thank you very much [01:05:32,947]: Thanks EzraTranscribe your media with TRNSCRB.
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