In a recent episode of the YouTube channel ‘Triggernometry,’ Andrei Illarionov, a former senior policy advisor to Vladimir Putin, expressed alarming views regarding the implications of a potential deal made by former President Donald Trump concerning Ukraine. Illarionov, who has transitioned from a key ally of Putin to a robust critic of the Russian regime, posits that such a deal could signify a detrimental shift for Ukraine amid its ongoing conflict with Russia. Given Illarionov’s intricate background and firsthand experience in Russian politics, his opinions carry weight, yet they demand an analytical lens to discern fact from speculation. In this blog post, we will delve into the claims made during the Triggernometry discussion, providing thorough fact checks and contextual analysis to better understand the potential ramifications of Trump’s proposed negotiations on Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. Join us as we explore the intricate web of geopolitics and assess the credibility of these assertions.
Find a fact check of this transcript on CheckForFacts
Transcript:
[00:00:00,000]: For Trump Ukraine is irrelevant [00:00:04,059]: Ukraine does not exist in these calculations at all [00:00:07,579]: Because from this point of view Ukraine belongs to the Russian sphere of influence [00:00:11,960]: And that is why the business of Mr Trump is just to silence Ukraine as much as possible [00:00:18,260]: To silence Zelensky to silence anyone [00:00:20,780]: The argument from the Trump administration is when we sign the minerals deal with Ukraine that will guarantee Americans in Ukraine [00:00:30,659]: This is a kindergarten I’m really sorry to say so [00:00:33,479]: There is no economic success without security guarantees [00:00:36,900]: Mark Rutte the Secretary General of NATO he said publicly on record it seems to me he knows something that the total military output of all NATO countries combined is 25 of Russian military output [00:00:52,959]: Four times less [00:00:55,939]: Andrei Illarionov welcome back to the show [00:00:58,500]: We had you on exactly three years ago to talk about the Russian invasion of Ukraine what Vladimir Putin was doing [00:01:06,239]: Our interest was you are someone who worked with Vladimir Putin closely for six years and we talked about it then [00:01:12,459]: And you messaged us recently saying that there are a lot of things being said in the English speaking world that are not true and that need to be discussed [00:01:22,260]: And that’s something we agree with you on by the way [00:01:25,500]: So what are you talking about [00:01:27,319]: What’s going on [00:01:28,160]: What do you think needs to be talked about in a different way [00:01:31,319]: First of all thank you Konstantin [00:01:33,360]: Thank you Francis for inviting me once again [00:01:35,480]: It’s nice to see you [00:01:37,080]: And I need to confess that I follow your activities trying to follow what you’re doing how you’re doing [00:01:46,919]: It seems to me you’ve got substantial progress since we met last time [00:01:53,239]: Your subscription rate jumped up skyrocketed so now you’re stars in the English speaking world [00:02:00,260]: And you are not only kind of very popular and it’s a fact of life but you happen to be one of very few voices in the English speaking world that from my point of view continue to speak truth [00:02:14,970]: Unlike many other voices that somehow stopped to do it or have been under influence from Putin’s slash Kremlin propaganda [00:02:26,279]: And I can name only three sources that I follow that at least continue to talk about war that Putin is waging against Ukraine about Russia about Ukraine about many other things [00:02:40,740]: Just first of all you I would say Douglas Murray and I would say Piers Morgan also from time to time he’s trying to keep the line [00:02:51,000]: And to my observation all of you coming from Britain [00:02:55,919]: And I just why those only British voices but not American voices [00:03:01,360]: It’s another topic for discussion for me [00:03:04,080]: But it is shocking for me [00:03:05,960]: I would not hide this my feeling that many if not almost all American voices either became silent or started to reproduce Putin’s slash Kremlin propaganda [00:03:23,460]: Especially concerning Ukraine concerning Putin’s aggression against Ukraine concerning Putin’s policy and so on [00:03:31,460]: So that is why it’s quite shocking it’s quite discouraging [00:03:34,619]: And I would like to thank you for at least keeping this line and continue your stance and support for truth [00:03:48,479]: So that is why I think it will be useful if we can talk about those issues objectively openly honestly [00:03:59,100]: Even some people might not like what we can talk about [00:04:03,100]: Let’s do that [00:04:04,279]: And look from our perspective we don’t have a line [00:04:06,759]: I guess to the extent that I understand Ukraine and Russia growing up in Russia living in Ukraine for some time having family having relatives speaking to people in both countries about what’s going on from the inside speaking to people who are involved at various levels in government [00:04:23,880]: I’m just telling people in the West what I know and what I’m hearing [00:04:27,500]: That’s all I’m doing [00:04:28,619]: And if I was hearing something else I’d be saying something else [00:04:30,600]: But I agree with you [00:04:32,619]: One of the fascinating things I’m going to show you a few experiences because we’re both Russian speakers and I imagine we both consume Russian speaking media is watching something become a talking point in Russian media and then two weeks later or three weeks later or a month later it appears in English speaking media as this new thing [00:04:55,260]: Have you seen that pipeline happen yourself [00:04:59,040]: First of all I would suggest you’re keeping the line because this line talks truth [00:05:04,299]: What you saw with your own eyes what you understand yourself not what Kremlin wants us to repeat [00:05:11,799]: So that is why this is a line [00:05:13,660]: So I’m trying to my extent to do exactly the same [00:05:17,500]: So that is what exactly I have in mind when I’m saying that just keep the line [00:05:22,579]: As for your observation so you put this kind of time pause two three weeks [00:05:31,600]: Sometimes this pause could be different [00:05:34,200]: For example Putin for almost a year was talking about the Zelensky dictator [00:05:40,420]: So he started to talk from the last June [00:05:45,820]: And all of a sudden exactly the same words have been repeated by Mr Trump [00:05:51,739]: And when somebody mentioned okay so is it going to Kremlin’s propaganda [00:05:56,239]: He said no no it is my own understanding [00:05:59,760]: Okay so just probably Mr Trump didn’t know that Mr Putin was talking about it for whatever nine months prior to that but this is a fact of life [00:06:09,820]: And after that when Mr Trump has repeated the story that okay Mr Biden did not call me did not talk to Putin for three and a half years which is clearly not true because the last conversation between Biden and Putin was on December 30th 21 [00:06:29,799]: So that is why assuming his term in the office it’s in the very best case three years [00:06:35,019]: And the three years when Trump said so but few days later Mr Vitkov has repeated the story that it was Mr Putin told him Vitkov that Biden did not talk to Putin for three and a half years [00:06:51,640]: So now we all of a sudden found these line of communications [00:06:55,839]: So first of all Putin told Vitkov Vitkov told Trump and Trump repeated the lie that Putin told Vitkov and has been transferred to Trump [00:07:08,119]: So that is why these lines of communications or timescale could be different [00:07:14,700]: But you’re absolutely right that all of a sudden we found situations that I cannot recall that Putin’s slash Kremlin slash Russian propaganda has been repeated and spread out in English speaking world at the level unseen and unheard before [00:07:34,920]: And we unfortunately we can hear all the time from such people like Professor Mishimer Professor Sachs Tucker Carlson Vice President J D [00:07:46,929]: Vance from the son of the President Donald Trump Jr and from President Trump himself [00:07:52,609]: So this is shocking because never before we had a situation when the leadership of the U S administration would repeat consistently and persistently something that’s completely untrue completely wrong and complete propaganda disinformation aimed at justification of aggressive behavior of Russia of Putin first of all against Ukraine against Europe and against the United States against the Western civilization [00:08:24,010]: So Putin never hid it that his main goal is destruction of Western civilization [00:08:29,089]: He devoted to this goal many many of his statements [00:08:33,849]: His apparatus his Kremlin entourage the whole system of the current Russian government is working to destroy Western civilization NATO Europe United States [00:08:46,489]: Andrei that’s quite a claim [00:08:48,909]: Can you give us some specifics [00:08:51,049]: Like personally I’ve never heard him say he wants to destroy Western civilization [00:08:54,789]: What are you talking about specifically [00:08:56,450]: I can refer you to just many speeches especially from the speech that he has given on October 5th year 2023 during the so called Valdai Club gathering in which he proclaimed actually its public announcement of the global war against the West [00:09:14,190]: And it is a very detailed and very fundamental explanation that the West is doomed [00:09:21,510]: And his Putin’s goal together with a big friend and colleague Mr Xi from China and to unite the other countries around the world so called multilateral or whatever [00:09:40,030]: Multipolar world [00:09:41,169]: Multipolar world it’s an old term but they say that this is a global majority [00:09:46,330]: Even though they say not global majority world majority [00:09:49,869]: They understand English very well so that is why they’re choosing right words in English to explain their position [00:09:56,070]: So this is a world majority against the West against doomed some kind of decadent West [00:10:04,190]: And this is some kind of the noble mission of current Russia and current Russian regime under the leadership of Putin with support from Chinese friends to make everything possible that the days of the West are numbered [00:10:23,510]: And after that a number of people from the Kremlin and from Kremlin on to Russia issued a number of documents including those documents that have been produced such people I don’t know probably you know those names like Karaganov or Trenin those people from think tanks around Kremlin they put a number of documents explaining the essence of this global war against the West led by world majority with the leadership of Russia with Putin at the head [00:10:59,710]: So that is why it’s nothing new it’s very well detailed some kind of work out plan by the current Russian regime [00:11:09,109]: They never hide it they talk about it regularly [00:11:12,109]: Even just a few days ago already just with the current US administration Mr Karaganov again once again gave an interview to BBC I believe the correspondent of BBC in Moscow explaining no we need to use everything possible just to subjugate Europe [00:11:30,969]: Now he’s trying to kind of before January 20th he was talking about the main problem with the United States actually with Anglo Saxons so you don’t forget about Brits as well so they understand Anglo Saxons as Americans and Brits [00:11:46,210]: Now within your administration so they’re kind of accurately trying to put aside America and now talking about Europe with Brits you’re still there so don’t worry you’re still the goal of this regime [00:11:59,349]: So that is why he’s not hiding yes he’s going yes if it’s necessary we can use whatever possible whatever resources or whatever instruments including whatever weapons to reach our goal [00:12:12,849]: It is not about Ukraine it’s not about Zelensky it’s not about his behavior in the Oval Office or White House or how he treated the President of the United States or Vice President of the United States no it’s about an absolutely different story it’s about the imperial dominance of the Russian regime over Europe [00:12:30,809]: And this is by the way it’s not in use it’s a long term policy of Soviet communists to establish dominance over Europe [00:12:39,429]: This is actually what’s proclaimed by V I [00:12:43,890]: Lenin back in 1970 1918 this was essentially the goal of the so called Bolsheviks march into Europe via Poland to Germany to Italy to Hungary that was exactly what Lenin was talking in summer 1920 [00:13:02,789]: And after that they prepared for this war for 20 years between First World War and Second World War and the Second World War was organized by Stalin as a so called liberation march of Europe [00:13:19,830]: That was successful but only half successful only half of Europe happened to be subjugated by Soviet communism [00:13:31,169]: And after that in the late 80s and early 90s with the collapse of the Warsaw Pact with the collapse of the Soviet Union with the end of the Cold War all of a sudden all these countries that had been liberated themselves from communism so they wanted to join Western civilization [00:13:53,190]: So that must be reconsidered that must be changed there must be revenge [00:13:59,989]: And that exactly was the essence of Putin’s regime over the last 25 years versus Europe [00:14:08,150]: And he was trying to achieve this for all this period of time so he never hid it [00:14:13,830]: So that is why only the deaf and blind could not see what are the purposes what are the goals of Putin [00:14:21,489]: So that is why he is doing exactly that [00:14:26,190]: Andrei you’re saying this to me and I’ve followed this closely obviously not as closely as either of you two at the table and I’ll be honest with you I’m profoundly shocked because what you seem to be talking about and forgive me for my historical illiteracy it’s almost like a Hitler like figure somebody who wants dominance over Europe that rings alarm bells in my head [00:14:47,630]: No but it’s not [00:14:49,250]: Why it should be a surprise for you that’s exactly the policy of Putin what he was doing [00:14:54,570]: Actually I have analysis of speech that Putin gave to the same Valdai Club that I mentioned before back in the year 2014 [00:15:05,030]: And I recommend you just if you’re interested I give you a link to my analysis it’s in Russian but it’s not difficult to translate into English because when I was speaking at some English speaking audience I translated it into English and it’s available [00:15:19,830]: So it was actually [00:15:22,150]: I spoke at Atlantic Council in April 2015 where I spread this translation of the speech [00:15:31,530]: And I put speech of Putin in October 2014 one part of the page a sheet and the other two letters that Adolf Hitler dictated in August 1939 to Mr Chamberlain then Prime Minister of United Kingdom [00:15:58,650]: So and I found that slightly more than 20 points where the words of Putin almost word by word coincide with Hitler’s text [00:16:14,609]: Sometimes stylistics slightly different but it’s not the same but sometimes word by word [00:16:20,130]: And it is striking because those people speechwriters in Kremlin who prepared speech for Putin in October 2014 my suspicion they never read Hitler because it is not available in Russian it is in English or German so you can see it [00:16:38,250]: And I doubt that even they would read it they would try to emanate what Hitler said back in 1939 [00:16:44,469]: So they were writing what they think is necessary and what would be suitable for Putin and Putin read it publicly [00:16:54,150]: This is an official public speech it is still on the Kremlin website [00:16:57,770]: Once again it is more than 20 points that coincide almost word by word [00:17:03,489]: Which means sorry which means that it is striking I agree with you that it’s striking that the type of thinking the type of conscious almost identical of these two persons because he was talking exactly about that [00:17:20,150]: He was talking about Poland Hitler as Putin was talking about Ukraine [00:17:27,819]: Hitler was talking about the Polish corridor exactly as Putin was talking about Crimea and Northern Tauria [00:17:36,390]: Hitler was talking about the whatever humiliation that Germans experienced under Polish rule exactly as Putin was talking about the Russians experiencing humiliation under so called Ukrainian rule and so on and so on [00:17:49,989]: And he also explained his vision for the rest of the world there as well [00:17:56,109]: And about the idea how to divide world and first of all Europe between big powers between really big powers [00:18:04,750]: But back then he suggested to Neville Chamberlain let’s divide Europe [00:18:09,650]: I fully understand your interest [00:18:12,150]: I fully understand that you’re a great power the kind of British Empire [00:18:17,030]: I’m not going to fight with you [00:18:19,849]: Let’s divide the world [00:18:21,489]: Let’s divide Europe between us [00:18:23,469]: What Putin was suggesting back in the year 2014 and after that many times in 2015 back then to Obama and after that now to Trump [00:18:33,550]: Okay let’s divide the world [00:18:35,890]: Let’s divide Europe [00:18:37,050]: So you have your interest somewhere else [00:18:39,150]: I fully respect your interest [00:18:41,369]: But this is not your interest [00:18:43,390]: No okay let’s divide it [00:18:45,030]: Let’s give it to me [00:18:46,729]: That is exactly the essence of Putin that completely repeating not only Stalin’s approach back then but Hitler’s approach and nobody should be shocked about that [00:18:58,109]: This is just fact [00:18:59,209]: This is reality [00:19:00,150]: You can check yourself and anyone who watches us right now can take this text read and make this conclusion [00:19:08,589]: This podcast is brought to you in part by Stash [00:19:13,109]: Saving and investing can feel impossible but with Stash it’s not just a reality [00:19:17,989]: It’s easy [00:19:18,969]: Stash isn’t just an investing app [00:19:21,430]: It’s a registered investment advisor that combines automated investing with dependable financial strategies to help you reach your goals faster [00:19:31,089]: They’ll provide you with personalized advice on what to invest in based on your goals [00:19:36,670]: Or if you want to just sit back and watch your money go to work you can opt into their award winning expert managed portfolio that picks stocks for you [00:19:45,630]: Stash has helped millions of Americans reach their financial goals and starts at just 3 per month [00:19:53,030]: Don’t let your savings sit around [00:19:55,089]: Make it work harder for you [00:19:57,130]: Go to get stash com [00:20:00,729]: slash trigger to see how you can receive 25 towards your first stock purchase and to view important disclosures [00:20:09,969]: That’s get stash com [00:20:14,510]: slash trigger [00:20:16,349]: Paid non client endorsement [00:20:18,010]: Not representative of all clients and not a guarantee [00:20:21,750]: Investment advisory services offered by Stash Investments LLC and SEC registered investment advisor [00:20:29,010]: Investing involves risk [00:20:31,069]: Offer is subject to T’s and C’s [00:20:35,108]: So saying that and I believe what you’re saying number one that’s terrifying [00:20:41,128]: Number two when you look at Trump’s approach to negotiations with Putin it casts it in an even worse light than before [00:20:51,408]: Because you’re looking at him and you’re going is this appeasement [00:20:55,868]: Right [00:20:56,508]: This is it [00:20:57,548]: We’re coming probably to one of the most important parts of our conversation [00:21:01,308]: I don’t know what else we can discuss but this is probably most important [00:21:04,988]: But before moving that at least I need to say that we can see what Trump himself doing and what his administration is doing domestically within the United States [00:21:15,548]: Almost all or at least definitely a lot I would support [00:21:20,488]: Because I think it’s absolutely reasonable absolutely right absolutely correct [00:21:24,208]: Just defense from the invasion through southern border absolutely correct [00:21:28,608]: Restoration of freedom of speech wonderful [00:21:31,968]: All this elimination of this what was it DOE DIA just all this workism and so on are absolutely necessary [00:21:41,968]: There are many other things that Trump administration is doing is absolutely correct [00:21:46,808]: And I fully support it [00:21:49,908]: But when we’re coming to the foreign policy or international relations this is a shock [00:21:54,628]: Because it is not expected certainly by me it is not expected by many other people actually [00:21:59,848]: I never met anyone who understood it [00:22:03,988]: And for example Meyer Ferguson whom you definitely know so he himself said several times over the last several weeks that he never met any person in Europe who understand the Trump’s policy towards Europe and international policy [00:22:20,288]: So now we’re coming to the most important element I hope in our discussion and probably over the current days weeks and months [00:22:28,668]: So what is the policy of Mr Trump [00:22:32,088]: What is his actual vision based on which he’s trying to implement some policies [00:22:37,628]: And my understanding that it’s not an appeasement because for Mr Chamberlain it was an appeasement [00:22:44,108]: Because Mr Chamberlain was a person coming from the First World War in which Britain France and other countries lost a lot of people [00:22:55,788]: And that is why they understood that there is nothing worse than the war in which hundreds of thousands if not millions of people have been killed without any reasonable explanation So that is why their position was to avoid war at any cost [00:23:13,208]: And that is why they tried to appease until some point because after some point even Chamberlain has changed his position [00:23:22,708]: It was Chamberlain who announced who pronounced the war against Germany against Nazi Germany after invasion into Poland [00:23:31,228]: It was not Churchill [00:23:32,488]: Churchill came later [00:23:33,308]: So that is why even Chamberlain understood that it was a mistake of his position before and he has changed his mind and he has changed his position and he brought Britain into this war to this absolute evil [00:23:47,748]: Right [00:23:48,388]: So but coming to Mr Trump whether we have here appeasement I would try to find different words but definitely it reminds appeasement policy of the late 1930s in Europe [00:24:04,268]: Because the position of Trump as I understand it especially now after these two months of his administration is a different one [00:24:13,188]: Mr Chamberlain was not in a position to divide world or Europe with Hitler or with Stalin [00:24:20,618]: It was not his position [00:24:23,148]: Mr Trump’s position exactly is that [00:24:26,348]: He is looking for strategic alliance with China or sorry he’s looking for strategic alliance against China because he considers China as the most important enemy of the United States [00:24:43,088]: It was his position back in the first term and now terms [00:24:48,008]: So and he understand that the resources and capabilities of the United States are limited [00:24:54,708]: Europe is not a big ally in this potential battle with China [00:25:00,308]: So that is why he’s looking for potential allies [00:25:04,328]: With all due respect to other allies whom Mr Biden tried to put into whatever what organization he does not consider them as serious resource [00:25:15,988]: So that is why he’s looking for Russia [00:25:17,708]: And that is why he has arrived to idea as I understand him once again that Russia might play a role whatever deterrent ally whatever for deterring against China ally to the United States [00:25:32,468]: So he’s trying to play the so called Nixon’s policy vice versa [00:25:38,428]: So Nixon’s Kissinger policy was just to take China out of the Soviet Union to put them against [00:25:45,588]: And that is why to deal with what they considered the goal number one the Soviet Union [00:25:53,228]: So now Trump is once again as I understand him he’s trying to reverse this game [00:25:59,488]: He would try we know that Trump likes Nixon very much [00:26:02,828]: He considered to some extent his successor in policy [00:26:07,288]: He’s trying to some kind of to take Russia out of China to exploit in the long term battle against China [00:26:16,228]: So that being the case what it seems more and more and please correct me if I’m wrong is that Trump is essentially seeing Ukraine as nothing more than a pawn because the most important to him is fostering American Russian relations so that they can then pressure China and then they’re united against China [00:26:39,548]: China is more important to him than Ukraine [00:26:42,208]: And as a result of that he’s far more interested in pursuing relations with Putin and Zelensky and the fate of the Ukrainian people comes second [00:26:52,448]: Is that fair [00:26:53,708]: Francis I would just generally agree with what you’re saying it’s not second [00:26:58,248]: It’s irrelevant [00:26:59,828]: For Trump Ukraine Ukrainian people everything is irrelevant [00:27:04,428]: This is easy something very easy stuff or you use pawn whatever that can be given to Putin and actually must be given to Putin to satisfy him and just to lure him into the so called alliance with Trump [00:27:20,808]: So that is why for him it is absolutely I would say just cynical but in the world of politics it’s regular stuff [00:27:29,208]: It’s absolutely cynical [00:27:30,948]: Ukraine means nothing for Trump [00:27:35,328]: So this is realist sphere of influence politics [00:27:39,008]: It’s a kind of real politics they’re discussing [00:27:41,748]: We divide the world look we’re big men we control this part you control that part let’s divide what’s in the middle [00:27:47,208]: Yes it’s a great power [00:27:48,188]: So that is why Mr Vitkov in his recent interview easily has said OK so Ukraine is a false country [00:27:55,748]: He repeated what has been said by Putin [00:27:58,908]: This is what I was going to ask you about [00:28:01,608]: Sorry just to say it is important to underscore that Ukraine fate of Ukraine and not only fate of Ukraine fate of Europe Ukraine does not exist at all [00:28:14,488]: Europe may be secondary as I would use your terminology but Ukraine does not exist in these calculations at all [00:28:22,128]: Because from this point of view Ukraine belongs to the Russian sphere of influence Russian sphere of control [00:28:29,308]: And that is why the business of Mr Trump is just to silence Ukraine as much as possible to silence Zelensky to silence anyone who because it’s the problem not of Zelensky it’s problem of the very existence of Ukraine [00:28:42,748]: So it is not relevant for Trump at all [00:28:46,288]: So that is why by giving this gift to Putin Trump is hoping that he would be able to create a new alliance with Putin or at least to try to get him from China [00:29:00,228]: And that is why to deal with China [00:29:02,488]: So it’s another story how it is mistaken that it is impossible to achieve [00:29:09,188]: That’s another story [00:29:09,988]: Well we’ll talk about this [00:29:10,708]: Yeah but we’re not talking about whether it’s possible or not [00:29:13,488]: But we’re trying to reconstruct his conscience his ideas his mindset and what we have seen and what we have watched over the last two months [00:29:26,688]: And we arrived to this conclusion [00:29:29,608]: Okay [00:29:30,108]: So one of the things this got a lot of traction in the media [00:29:35,568]: There was a conversation between the American presenter podcaster Tucker Carlson and Steve Vitkoff who is the US Special Envoy who is in charge of negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine and also in Israel and Hamas [00:29:50,128]: And they talked about those two issues but we’ll focus on the Ukraine side of things [00:29:54,168]: He said a lot of things in that interview that are just factually incorrect [00:30:01,428]: He said that the five areas that Russia controls which it doesn’t control fully by the way were given to Ukraine by Khrushchev who was a Ukrainian [00:30:11,388]: That’s not true [00:30:12,348]: They weren’t given to Ukraine [00:30:14,328]: Only Crimea was [00:30:15,828]: Khrushchev was not Ukrainian [00:30:17,348]: And not by Khrushchev by the way [00:30:19,228]: It was in time of Khrushchev but not by Khrushchev himself because the decision had been taken by Stalin [00:30:24,468]: But Stalin died by that time and so it was only in time of Khrushchev they fulfilled this [00:30:29,848]: And it’s not because of a Ukrainian Russian relation but because of economic issues of restoration of Crimea after the war [00:30:37,808]: That’s an interesting different story but it is completely misguided and completely falsified in the English speaking media [00:30:44,428]: It is [00:30:44,528]: So nobody’s talking about that [00:30:46,748]: I don’t want to get too far into the details of that [00:30:49,528]: I think what I’m saying is you as an expert and me as a layman would both agree that there were lots and lots and lots of things that he said those are just two easy examples which completely misrepresent the factual reality [00:31:01,708]: What they do represent is the Kremlin position right [00:31:05,888]: So why is the U S special envoy saying things that have no connection to the truth but have every connection to Kremlin propaganda [00:31:14,308]: Why is that happening Andrei [00:31:15,288]: It’s first of all the fact of unbelievable incompetence and outright ignorance of the facts on the ground [00:31:26,748]: Because he had been appointed to this position back then whatever in November or December so he had at least some time to accumulate this knowledge [00:31:35,248]: But it’s clear that he’s not interested in that [00:31:38,388]: So because it’s not a very big business to just have two clicks and to find out what is the ethnicity of Mr Khrushchev it’s just English speaking Wikipedias telling it openly [00:31:49,668]: It’s not a rocket science [00:31:51,708]: So that is why and by the way the question is he bragged I mean just Mr Witkow bragged that he spent almost eight hours with Putin just to produce an impression on his English speaking listeners [00:32:05,688]: But the question is very simple how many seconds he spent with Ukrainians [00:32:10,228]: And the answer is very clear zero [00:32:14,408]: So that is why how he could be any envoy on these particular issues if he is listening to only one side being completely ignorant in these issues never been neither before this travel it seems to me never been to Russia never been to Ukraine understanding nothing about the story about history about international relations about security he admitted just in the last interview that he has been duped by Hamas [00:32:44,248]: Okay so just he’s on such an age that it’s kind of demonstrating such a quality is just only confirming that he is not suited for this job [00:32:56,128]: Before just the people on the other side for example on the Russian side the people spend all life sometimes 40 years sometimes 50 years studying these issues [00:33:06,308]: They are incomparable or he’s incomparable to them [00:33:09,748]: So that is why to manipulate him that he says that it is impossible [00:33:13,888]: It is easy because he’s from kindergarten he does not understand anything about that [00:33:19,468]: Just you mentioned a couple of cases but there is not only these cases versus Ukraine or versus those regions or versus Khrushchev or versus what’s going on but just he said just okay if Iran whatever just he was talking about on different topics that plan of President Trump would be implemented [00:33:38,108]: So Iran would come back to international community and Iran would join League of Nations [00:33:45,948]: It’s on record [00:33:47,208]: It’s on record in this interview and in a transcript [00:33:50,708]: So that is why what are we talking about [00:33:53,528]: It’s not about what are the names of the four or five Ukrainian regions partially occupied by Russian troops [00:34:01,128]: It’s about basic knowledge about the current world [00:34:05,268]: It’s not about United Nations [00:34:07,308]: It’s about League of Nations [00:34:09,308]: So that is why once again we are dealing with a problem certainly we have incompetence we have ignorance and we have a kind of if people of such level incompetent ignorant it’s not a very big business to manipulate them especially by those who spend all their life in that particular profession [00:34:29,348]: And especially your argument is because actually why not send someone like that in to negotiate [00:34:36,748]: Because ultimately what you care about is just get this wrapped up [00:34:39,288]: It doesn’t really matter how this ends [00:34:41,328]: We need to deal with this quickly because we’ve got China to deal with [00:34:44,408]: That’s exactly the point [00:34:45,868]: Because the support that Mr Vitkov has received from Mr Vance confirmed this logic [00:34:53,428]: Because for them it is not important [00:34:55,688]: That’s irrelevant [00:34:56,528]: What is going in Ukraine whether five regions or 15 regions or 50 regions doesn’t matter at all because for them they have the kind of the main goal [00:35:06,028]: The main goal and by the way Mr Vitkov was some kind of courageous enough to explain the main goal is to have friendship with Russia to have business with Russia to have economic relations [00:35:16,368]: Let’s have energy projects [00:35:17,908]: Let’s have projects in Arctic [00:35:19,728]: Let’s have a project in artificial intelligence [00:35:22,668]: Let’s have project in technologies [00:35:24,968]: Let’s have everything just to bring Russia together closer to the United States regardless what price must be paid for that [00:35:34,928]: Because for them this is a goal number one [00:35:38,748]: This is absolute goal [00:35:39,888]: Okay [00:35:40,328]: Well let’s look [00:35:42,048]: I think we should have this discussion fairly which is to say look morality is morality and we all have our own personal morality and right and wrong or whatever [00:35:51,948]: But when it comes to great power stuff you know these considerations come into and why not have peace with one of the biggest countries in the world and trade and so on [00:36:02,328]: My argument has always been that I think that if the Ukraine conflict ends in a way that doesn’t produce long term security for Ukraine this will happen again [00:36:12,868]: The invasion that happened in 2014 and in 2022 is likely to be repeated again because there’s no reason why it wouldn’t [00:36:20,328]: And Steve Whitkoff says well no they’ve got the regions that they wanted [00:36:25,328]: Why would they keep going [00:36:26,788]: It’s not very persuasive to me [00:36:28,588]: What do you think [00:36:31,588]: Your logic is understandable but you’re thinking that it will be peace at least some short term peace [00:36:39,228]: I don’t think that will be any short term peace because all these negotiations would lead to only one possible result to capitulation of Ukraine [00:36:48,688]: And either Whitkoff or Wentz or even President Trump in many of their comments are hinting on this particular outcome [00:37:01,728]: Just for them it will be not a very big surprise not very big shock [00:37:05,748]: And the capitulation of Ukraine because what they’re talking about the ceasefire and so on with stop of providing military aid or intelligence or whatever means because stop with mobilization or with all those efforts to bring necessary people into the armed forces of Ukraine means that Ukraine will be subjugated [00:37:28,728]: If Ukraine will be subjugated and this is an obvious result of these efforts because Putin has proclaimed his goal about Ukraine not now not in year 2022 as people are talking about last three years not in year 2014 with occupation and annexation of Crimea [00:37:47,368]: He proclaimed in year 2003 [00:37:50,948]: So it is absolutely irrelevant whether Zelensky or not Zelensky with Poroshenko or not Poroshenko with this regime in Ukraine or not this regime in Ukraine [00:37:58,908]: It is not related with NATO or Ukraine in NATO membership or this map to NATO nothing [00:38:06,008]: In year 2003 Ukraine was the closest partner of Russia and the opinion polls in Ukraine showed the highest support for whom among political leaders among Ukrainians [00:38:19,208]: The highest position was not Mr Kuchma the president of Ukraine back then nor Mr whoever would be there [00:38:27,208]: It was for Putin [00:38:29,468]: Ukraine was completely pro Putin back then in year 2003 [00:38:33,028]: So that is why it was not a problem of any discussions or any problems or battles between Russia and Ukraine [00:38:38,868]: It was imperial ideas of Mr Putin when in year 2003 he proclaimed that he has territorial claims to Ukraine [00:38:47,068]: And he started this provocation at Tuzla Island in the Strait of Kerch between Black Sea and the Sea of Azov [00:38:57,548]: So it was in on September 17th year 2003 when Putin collected the all military diplomatic and intelligence community in small city Yeisk of Krasnodar region in Russia where he proclaimed that okay we need to military diplomatic solution to the territorial issues that we have between Russia and Ukraine [00:39:22,168]: Nobody ever was talking about NATO back then in Ukraine or anywhere else [00:39:29,028]: So Ukraine was pro Putin pro Russian back then [00:39:32,128]: So that is what a long imperial project to subjugate whole Ukraine [00:39:37,548]: So that is like what will happen if those negotiations for ceasefire over peace will succeed according to efforts thanks to efforts of Mr Vitko Vents or President Trump [00:39:52,088]: If Ukraine will be subjugated by Putin so that is why the armed forces of Ukraine which is now about 800 000 of military very well trained reasonably equipped battle hardened would join Russian army [00:40:10,019]: Certainly with some cleansing for officer corps because some kind of the patriotic Ukrainians will be cleansed from this army [00:40:18,339]: And that is why Russian army which is now I mean the battle forces 1 5 million will be roughly speaking two million or two and a half or whatever just between that [00:40:28,279]: And now we can look into the military forces of European countries [00:40:33,420]: The largest will be 200 000 [00:40:36,139]: What could any European countries or all those European countries together to do with the two best most experienced armies of the current day Russian and Ukrainian combined [00:40:51,539]: Nothing [00:40:52,659]: What they could do for example in defense of Baltic countries [00:40:56,699]: Nothing [00:40:57,559]: Now Baltic countries have no doubt [00:41:00,159]: So just this article five does not apply to with the current US administration does not apply to Baltic countries [00:41:07,039]: Nobody would do anything [00:41:08,399]: Why do you say that [00:41:08,839]: Why do you say it doesn’t apply [00:41:09,740]: It’s not me [00:41:10,539]: It’s Baltic countries [00:41:11,599]: They came to this conclusion after these two months [00:41:13,800]: I talked a lot to people in the Baltic countries [00:41:17,980]: They came to absolute conclusion that they would not be supported by the United States [00:41:24,620]: And that by the way United States they’re the main security guarantees for Europe not for Ukraine [00:41:31,239]: Now we’re talking not about Ukraine about Europe [00:41:34,440]: And now all of a sudden Europe recognized that they don’t have US support [00:41:41,560]: You might not have US nuclear umbrella over Europe [00:41:46,819]: And that is why they are left alone in front of the potential not the potential real aggressor [00:41:53,200]: So that is why coming back what would lead to these so called negotiations about ceasefire [00:41:58,859]: So at the gate of Europe will be largest most experienced in the modern warfare army combining Russian forces and Ukrainian forces [00:42:09,779]: Why [00:42:10,580]: It’s necessary to wait until year 2030 [00:42:13,819]: Why [00:42:14,539]: It is necessary to use exactly this window of opportunity of this current administration that is proclaimed that it might withdraw from Europe or at least the relation between US and Europe would be on a different level [00:42:26,920]: So no reason to wait until year 2030 especially if Europeans are going to be ready by year 2030 [00:42:34,700]: So that is why for Putin it will be absolutely clear [00:42:37,340]: It is necessary to wait until another five years [00:42:40,120]: It is necessary to do it right now [00:42:42,420]: Chaos comes in all shapes and sizes [00:42:45,439]: Last week a guest showed up late because they couldn’t find the studio [00:42:48,720]: And we had to juggle schedules on the fly [00:42:51,500]: Talk about stress [00:42:52,679]: But here’s the thing [00:42:53,679]: While some chaos is unavoidable your e commerce business doesn’t have to suffer [00:42:59,500]: That’s where ShipStation comes in [00:43:01,760]: ShipStation simplifies order fulfillment by letting you manage all your shipping needs from one easy dashboard [00:43:09,000]: Whether it’s automating repetitive tasks or finding the best carrier rates ShipStation helps save time and money so you can focus on growing your business [00:43:19,019]: As someone who runs a business I don’t run it shut up [00:43:22,439]: I understand how critical it is to streamline operations and stay ahead of the game [00:43:27,739]: We endorse ShipStation because it’s a powerful tool for any business owner [00:43:32,760]: It scales with you no matter how large your business gets and offers discounts of up to 88 of UPS DHL Express and USPS rates and even 90 of FedEx [00:43:46,019]: Those savings add up fast [00:43:48,019]: Over 130 000 companies trust ShipStation to keep their fulfillment running smoothly and it’s easy to see why [00:43:57,280]: Start simplifying your shipping today [00:43:59,459]: Go to ShipStation com and use the code TRIGGER to sign up for your free trial [00:44:04,760]: At ShipStation com code TRIGGER ShipStation make ship happen [00:44:11,260]: Andre look the argument from the Trump administration is when we sign the minerals deal with Ukraine that will guarantee Americans in Ukraine that will guarantee American financial interests in Ukraine boots on the ground that will therefore mean that Russia won’t want to invade because they won’t want to antagonize American interests American business interests therefore guaranteeing Ukraine’s safety [00:44:39,399]: What do you say to that [00:44:40,979]: Francis we need to distinguish between economic interests and boots on the ground [00:44:44,940]: Boots on the ground is military [00:44:47,280]: Trump never said that military would be Okay sorry yes [00:44:50,199]: That’s a very important He meant like contractors and people [00:44:52,340]: Contractors and things like that sorry [00:44:54,380]: This is a kindergarten [00:44:55,820]: I’m really sorry to say so because everybody knows and this is a history shows that whoever will be in so called economic interests and business interests it is not deterrent for intervention [00:45:09,179]: By the way in Donbass there was many American companies back then in year 2014 [00:45:14,380]: What happened to them [00:45:17,239]: Were they served as a deterrent for Putin to attack Donbass [00:45:21,600]: No [00:45:22,940]: And all those assets of those American companies for example Cargill Cargill was in Donetsk Oblast so all of them have been taken by Russians and by separatists and they have been just either robbed or some kind of appropriated this [00:45:37,239]: And nobody neither Mr Obama nor Mr Biden nor Mr Trump said any word in defense of those American companies and American property on these occupied territories [00:45:47,899]: Same story will be for the rest of the world [00:45:50,040]: So this is a rule [00:45:51,940]: It’s actually not only in Donbass not only in Crimea not only in Ukraine everywhere [00:45:57,100]: So Alexander Sergeevich Pushkin the famous Russian poet once said very important I will say it in Russian [00:46:04,579]: Vse kuplyu skazala zlata [00:46:07,120]: Vse vazmu skazal bulat [00:46:08,979]: Which in English would be translated okay I’m ready to buy everything says gold [00:46:15,540]: So that is a business interest [00:46:17,820]: But the final word will be said by bulat I mean by steel by military force [00:46:24,259]: But the final word remains for military force [00:46:28,600]: Military force has the final word [00:46:30,199]: Final word yes [00:46:31,620]: And if we look around so just only military guarantees provide necessary conditions for future economic growth [00:46:43,399]: Why South Korea became such a wonderful example of economic growth [00:46:49,340]: Why it became a miracle economic miracle [00:46:52,359]: Because U S forces were having boots on the ground between 1950 to 53 during the Korean War [00:47:00,919]: And after that U S troops did not leave South Korea [00:47:05,840]: Why Western Germany became such a economic miracle success and so [00:47:11,440]: Because U S troops were on the grounds boots on the ground and Western Germany became a member of NATO [00:47:18,500]: Why Albania the poorest country in Europe became now the economic tiger over the last quarter century [00:47:26,359]: Because American troops on the ground and because Albania became a member of NATO [00:47:32,259]: It’s only one way [00:47:33,720]: First of all security guarantees in the form of U S troops or military alliance like NATO that can guarantee potential participation of U S troops and other troops and only after that economic success [00:47:48,259]: There is no economic success without security guarantees [00:47:51,979]: Just one example [00:47:53,679]: You know what example [00:47:55,780]: Mr Trump Mr Trump himself [00:47:59,199]: Before he became U S president even the first time he was a very well known kind of real estate developer in the United States [00:48:09,459]: He was interesting in participating in different projects around the world [00:48:13,519]: He was considering the participation in Russia [00:48:17,660]: He was even traveling to Moscow looking for potential acquiring hotel or maybe some other assets [00:48:25,139]: Back then in 2012 if I’m not mistaken what his decision was too risky [00:48:33,179]: It was him Mr Trump who was not courageous enough to invest in Russia in 2012 before occupation annexation of Crimea before this full scale intervention against Ukraine [00:48:49,439]: He himself taking the correct decision because he understands and he understood that this is too dangerous [00:48:56,800]: For himself he understands this is dangerous [00:48:59,920]: Why he think that other people will be so stupid that would invest in the country that does not have security guarantees [00:49:09,019]: I mean that’s a very good point [00:49:10,999]: That’s a very good point [00:49:12,579]: And what it illuminates Andrei is to me listening to what you’re saying is this the end of Ukraine then [00:49:22,999]: Is this inevitable do you think [00:49:26,499]: Let me answer to your question with kind of another question to you just [00:49:33,800]: In 1948 on May 14th if I’m not mistaken there was a proclamation of independence of Israel [00:49:42,740]: Immediately armies of five countries intervened into Israel with very clear goal [00:49:48,360]: It has been pronounced destruction of Israel and physical elimination of Jews on this territory to push them into the sea [00:49:57,759]: We all know that [00:49:59,420]: So and Israel was alone [00:50:02,019]: Israel was not a member of NATO and still not a member of NATO [00:50:04,600]: There was no allies and for Israelis there was no way how to fight back [00:50:10,660]: Just only one way because it’s a way for survival [00:50:14,360]: And they are still in the same position for almost 80 years in a row [00:50:18,819]: And they have regular attacks on them [00:50:22,180]: Recently we all know this October 7th [00:50:25,019]: And after that just from Hamas and from Hezbollah and from Houthis and from Iran and so on [00:50:29,720]: And they’re fighting for their survival [00:50:33,800]: But back then in 1948 somebody would say okay is it the end of Israel [00:50:39,300]: Yes maybe they already decided [00:50:41,100]: But Golda Meir told his American colleagues when she was traveling through the United States collecting money for the defense of Ukraine for Israel [00:50:51,059]: Good [00:50:51,579]: If you give us money we will use this money to defend ourselves [00:50:55,680]: If you would not give us money we will defend ourselves even with our fists without weapons but we will never surrender [00:51:04,720]: Actually he borrowed this phrase from Winston Churchill [00:51:08,780]: Former United Kingdom Prime Minister who said in the darkest hour back in June 1940 we will fight on the sea we will fight on dunes [00:51:21,100]: We will fight everywhere [00:51:24,459]: And even in this how I would say almost inconceivable case that we would need to evacuate islands meaning probably the royal family maybe general staff maybe army probably to Canada from the islands we would never stop to fight [00:51:42,499]: We will fight until we will win [00:51:46,180]: We will we shall never surrender [00:51:49,459]: What Mr Churchill said back in 1940 what Golda Meir would say in the late 40s there is only one way for Ukrainians to fight and they should never surrender because if they surrender they will be subjugated [00:52:04,040]: There will be genocide for patriotic people of Ukraine as it has been done in the Western Ukraine after the Second World War with all those fighters by Soviet troops by communist troops by NKVD 10 of Western Ukrainian population have been killed 10 [00:52:23,519]: You know who most what is the highest ratio of people being killed during these three years of full scale aggression of Putin against Ukraine [00:52:34,220]: No [00:52:35,259]: We have a statistic certainly it’s not full some kind of estimates but nevertheless several organizations are doing this research [00:52:42,680]: BBC Meduza MediaZone some other there is estimation for different regions of Russia [00:52:49,240]: And we know that’s a fact of life that the highest the lowest rate of conscription and certainly being killed among Moscovites among people from St Petersburg and from Chechnya Chechen Republic because it’s the favorite regions of Mr Putin certainly Moscow and St [00:53:07,019]: Petersburg just to preserve the political stability in the capitals and Chechnya because of his special relations with this Lord Kadyrov in Chechnya Republic [00:53:19,280]: So but the highest rate of people being conscripted and then killed in ethnic regions of Russia like Buryatia or some Dagestan or some other or some poor Russian regions because of the political weight of which is not very substantial [00:53:37,119]: But the highest rate of people being conscripted and being killed not there not even Buryatia the seven times higher the rate were in same regions that Mr Vitkov was not able to recall in Luhansk and Donetsk because those Ukrainians who happened to be on occupied territories from year 2014 occupied by Putin they have been forcefully conscripted to the so called Russian army or whatever popular militia people’s militia whatever and they’re now part of the Russian army [00:54:13,740]: They have been used as a meat forwarder or whatever kind of Meat grinder [00:54:20,019]: Cannon fodder [00:54:20,860]: Cannon fodder [00:54:21,540]: Yeah cannon fodder against Ukrainians [00:54:24,499]: And the rate of people being killed seven times higher than in the worst Russian region [00:54:32,319]: So that gives everybody indication what would happen to Ukrainians who would decide or it’s so many Ukrainian soldiers being killed that is why we cannot tolerate anymore [00:54:46,220]: We need to have some kind of peace or ceasefire [00:54:48,959]: Let’s have a peace with Putin [00:54:50,999]: Okay this territory will be taken by Putin and those people will be conscripted and be used against either Ukrainians or Europeans [00:55:00,040]: That’s a tradition [00:55:01,639]: This is a technology of imperial power to conquer the new territory to conscript these people from this territory and to use this for new imperial aggressions and for new conquest [00:55:14,819]: That’s exactly what has been used by the Russian empire through the whole history [00:55:19,559]: That’s exactly what has been done by Soviet regime or by Stalin’s regime [00:55:24,360]: When Stalin attacked Poland Eastern Poland in 1939 and occupied so called Western Ukraine and Western Belarus those people who lived there they had been immediately conscripted into the Red Army and they have been used as a Cannon fodder [00:55:42,100]: Cannon fodder exactly [00:55:43,579]: And the first one was in Soviet Finnish war the so called Winter War [00:55:48,780]: In 1939 1940 the heaviest losses were for divisions formed from Ukrainians in the Western part of the country immediately [00:55:59,360]: So that is why now those who are so calling for okay let’s have ceasefire because we need to keep Ukrainians from being killed [00:56:08,720]: This is an invitation to kill Ukrainians at much higher industrial scale incomparably higher than it is today [00:56:18,079]: So right now the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the only available security guarantee for Ukraine itself for Ukrainian civilian population [00:56:28,879]: This is the only one [00:56:31,160]: So the Ukrainian leadership whatever Zelensky whoever they’re talking about some additional security guarantees like NATO membership or military alliance or whatever long term missiles or let’s say it’s kind of the weapon that have been taken from Ukraine in 1994 due to Budapest Memorandum [00:56:54,499]: But that was a deterrent that was a security guarantee against aggression [00:56:59,899]: If there is no such a security guarantees that is why the only one security guarantee left for Ukrainians is Armed Forces of Ukraine [00:57:09,160]: And Putin understand this very well [00:57:11,099]: That is why his idea is to destroy Army of Ukraine [00:57:16,019]: That is why he’s talking about the stop of military aid stop of flow of intelligence information stop of all efforts to fill the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine [00:57:27,080]: Putin is smart compared to his partners from the other side [00:57:32,239]: I take your point [00:57:33,580]: So I guess the question is Andrei what are we meant to do [00:57:39,839]: If it was up to you what would be done [00:57:43,639]: Oh it’s up to me who I am [00:57:46,259]: Just tell me the position [00:57:47,200]: This is why I was gonna flesh out France’s question a little bit [00:57:51,099]: I think we should all accept whether we like it or not that elections have consequences [00:57:55,800]: The President of the United States is President Trump [00:57:58,560]: That’s not gonna change [00:57:59,379]: The Vice President is J D [00:58:00,540]: Vance [00:58:00,619]: That’s not gonna change [00:58:01,719]: I imagine none of the other people around are gonna change [00:58:03,960]: So this policy of America will continue [00:58:06,540]: The only question therefore remains is actually based on what you’re saying what does Europe do about this [00:58:12,879]: Exactly [00:58:14,019]: Because now it’s absolutely clear that in this new geopolitical environment this is absolutely this tectonical shift [00:58:20,839]: It’s not even the volcano eruption [00:58:22,700]: This is earthquake in international relations and security and Russia whatever [00:58:28,940]: Just something that we did not have for last 80 years [00:58:32,700]: Actually from even longer from the signing Atlantic Charter by Churchill and Roosevelt back in August 1941 [00:58:41,499]: So that is why it’s absolutely clear that Europe is alone without the United States [00:58:46,680]: So that is why Europe must decide [00:58:49,180]: So whether Europe will try to defend itself including Ukraine because it’s part of Europe and actually with the largest strongest the most powerful army on the continent or not [00:59:02,940]: If not it means that immediately Europe will find itself in much much much weaker position [00:59:10,639]: Once again we were talking about this much more powerful army on the East with readiness to attack anyone from the Baltic countries whatever 97 division line or whatever just without any resources that Europe can provide [00:59:26,420]: To defend itself [00:59:26,879]: But European countries have nuclear weapons as a deterrent [00:59:30,040]: Look nuclear weapons is a very important stuff but first of all the only two countries now Britain and France and the number of those assets is smaller than Russia has it’s one [00:59:43,979]: Second it means it immediately poses the question about the spreading of nuclear weapons around the world [00:59:51,859]: Because in this new situation because the Budapest Memorandum was an instrument that could show to the rest of the world that it is possible to have international whatever agreements that countries would not acquire nuclear weapons and at the same time won’t be attacked [01:00:10,305]: This experiment failed dramatically openly [01:00:16,105]: That’s the only lesson that anyone could learn from this experience that it is absolute necessity to acquire nuclear weapons [01:00:25,025]: This is the only deterrent that can be used from any potential aggression [01:00:29,625]: I’ve made this point [01:00:30,565]: So that is why Ukraine Poland Germany Turkey Iran South Korea Taiwan many other countries If those international institutions are irrelevant and became irrelevant because the big the great powers like the United States first of all the United States just made them irrelevant [01:00:56,625]: So the only way how can we defend ourselves is just to acquire nuclear weapons [01:01:01,205]: So that is why this is the strongest argument for spreading nuclear weapons around the world [01:01:08,905]: I agree [01:01:09,225]: I made this point recently and I think it’s actually an incredibly obvious point that no one other than you and me I’ve not heard anyone talk about this even though it’s so obvious [01:01:18,265]: But nonetheless you’re saying if you if the Americans let Ukraine be subjugated the Ukrainians will be added to the Russian army and then that army can be used against Europe [01:01:28,285]: And what I’m saying is European countries have nuclear weapons they can use to deter that [01:01:33,245]: That’s the comfort that a lot of Europeans will take [01:01:36,805]: And they will say well actually we don’t need to do anything [01:01:39,105]: We’ve got nuclear weapons [01:01:40,125]: Britain and France will be fine [01:01:41,205]: No it’s absolutely necessary [01:01:42,825]: That is why I understand that just now Brits and French are talking with Germans because the very obvious first step is just nuclearization of Germany [01:01:52,505]: Nobody would think about after the Second World War and the person who made it possible even just thinking and conversations and I could not exclude that will be actions is just the current US administration [01:02:07,025]: Nuclearization of Germany nuclearization of Poland nuclearization of Ukraine nuclearization of many other countries including nuclearization of Iran [01:02:15,825]: Because what would be the best way to deter anyone including the United States from attacking Iran is just nuclear weapons [01:02:23,845]: It’s a good point [01:02:24,605]: Well taken [01:02:25,165]: But I’m saying something else which is your claim is that if Ukraine is forced to sign a ceasefire that leads to subjugation Europe will then be attacked [01:02:35,965]: And what I’m saying is Europeans won’t be attacked or at least people would argue Europeans won’t be attacked because Europe has the nuclear deterrent [01:02:44,385]: No because right now the French nuclear is being used for defense of France [01:02:53,045]: British nuclear weapons is just for Britain not for the whole continent because the nuclear deterrent and nuclear umbrella for the whole continent was provided by the United States [01:03:06,125]: Now only if this umbrella is being taken away so a new question appeared [01:03:13,105]: Who would defend the whole European continent [01:03:16,765]: And that is a subject of discussions that are going right now everywhere [01:03:20,845]: So that is why we don’t know what will be the result [01:03:23,365]: I cannot exclude some potential outcome that we touched a little bit about [01:03:28,705]: But it means that it means much faster immediate spread of these nuclear technologies and missile technologies [01:03:38,685]: And that is exactly what Putin so officially proclaimed that he’s not interested or some kind of he’s so called afraid that missiles will be placed on Ukrainian territory [01:03:49,525]: Ukrainians never thought about that [01:03:50,825]: It was only in the imagination of Putin [01:03:53,365]: But now it will be self fulfilled prophecy because it’s exactly the way how Ukrainians could defend themselves [01:04:04,145]: So that is why we cannot forecast everything that might happen [01:04:08,865]: But just it is absolutely clear that Ukrainians would be acquire or produce themselves with potential collaboration however just the crucial technologies military capabilities that are necessary for their defense and for the defense of the European continent [01:04:26,985]: This is the only way to do it [01:04:29,385]: And the same story for Europe [01:04:32,685]: And just recently three Baltic countries Estonia Latvia and Lithuania some kind of worked out from Otava protocol for landmines [01:04:40,965]: Absolutely clear because they are not interested in being attacked and subjugated by forces from the east [01:04:48,385]: So that is why they’re digging and building the fortresses fortifications on the eastern border [01:04:53,825]: That is why Finns are doing a lot for strengthening their defense [01:04:59,565]: And as also necessary step an obvious step is just formation of new military alliance [01:05:07,815]: Either within NATO or outside of NATO or partially NATO outside of NATO among so called front states [01:05:16,845]: Front states which is Ukraine Poland Baltic countries Finland might be Sweden might be Norway might be Denmark with Brits or not Brits depends [01:05:28,065]: But for them it became issue of survival which did not exist three years ago [01:05:33,585]: Because three years ago and over the last three years it was a general understanding that in a time of very substantial European crisis or international crisis United States might come or will come for support [01:05:49,385]: Now there is nobody has such a belief [01:05:53,665]: Now that belief is completely undermined [01:05:56,625]: And that is why they need to do something themselves [01:06:00,785]: I find this incredibly worrying with the knowledge that I have of the UK which has pursued a policy of demilitarization deindustrialization [01:06:10,825]: And as a result of that we simply don’t have the capacity to take on any type of army let alone the Russian army [01:06:18,785]: I mean we just don’t have any type of army anymore really [01:06:23,865]: Francis I completely agree with your observation but I would probably make it even worse [01:06:30,645]: Because I’m trying to use not only emotions but also facts [01:06:33,705]: Just several facts [01:06:37,265]: Last year about a year ago there was a publication from the military sources here in the United States that was saying that United States not only UK United States is producing artillery shells 155 millimeters caliber three times less than Russia [01:06:57,345]: Once again US versus Russia [01:06:59,745]: GDP of the United States they claim that might be 10 times more than Russian GDP [01:07:07,845]: But the output of artillery shells three times more in Russia than in the United States [01:07:15,785]: You know how many artillery shells United States sent to Ukraine during these three years of war [01:07:21,225]: I know I just followed these events [01:07:23,745]: Three million [01:07:24,985]: You know how many artillery shells North Korea gave to Putin during 1 5 years [01:07:33,905]: So twice shorter six million [01:07:37,085]: So North Korea gave Putin twice more artillery shells of higher caliber 152 155 millimeters than the United States to Ukraine [01:07:49,345]: And now United States they have stocks are empty [01:07:52,905]: They cannot give more [01:07:55,585]: Just think about that [01:07:57,225]: It’s not even comparing United States towards Russia but United States towards North Korea [01:08:04,085]: Three years ago nobody would say something that would not be considered a sane person [01:08:10,005]: Because it’s absolutely out of any understanding [01:08:13,785]: So but this is only beginning [01:08:16,745]: Just together United States in Europe output of artillery shells today is less [01:08:25,605]: It’s about 54 if I recall correctly of the output of artillery shells in Russia alone [01:08:34,665]: So just essentially NATO countries [01:08:37,585]: Putin back in November last year in Bishkek if I’m not mistaken had said publicly that Russian output of missiles of all missiles ballistic missiles cruise missiles is 10 times more than NATO combined [01:08:54,905]: And he added that this year next year because he was talking last November so in 25 so this output would increase 30 35 more [01:09:07,805]: So we can take cautiously Putin’s words because it might be propaganda as well but nevertheless we need to see this [01:09:18,585]: But now we move to Mark Rutte former Prime Minister of Netherlands and now the Secretary General of NATO [01:09:27,125]: And his talk at Munich conference on security last month what he said [01:09:35,465]: He said publicly on record seems to me he knows something that the total military output of all NATO countries combined is 25 of Russian military output [01:09:49,905]: Four times less [01:09:51,665]: So that is why what you are talking about about UK you’re right [01:09:55,865]: And your observation has been confirmed by number of publications facts and so on [01:10:02,085]: So what conclusions might be made from these facts and numbers [01:10:08,585]: One option is to surrender and there will be peace like on the cemetery [01:10:18,585]: It’s not only for Ukraine it will be for UK for the whole Europe [01:10:22,065]: Or the different approach [01:10:24,565]: Your former Prime Minister Mr Churchill reminded us that he can promise on only whatever [01:10:30,445]: Blood sweat and tears [01:10:33,085]: So but this is a very clear challenge [01:10:36,145]: And that is why up to European countries up to UK up to the United States either to take this challenge or to surrender [01:10:45,005]: So we know the answer from Mr Churchill never surrender [01:10:49,785]: Okay maybe some other generation maybe some other politician will take different approach [01:10:54,345]: We don’t know [01:10:55,465]: But we know what can be done in this regard [01:10:57,645]: And we remember what has happened with the United States back in 1941 [01:11:02,185]: US was not yet in the war [01:11:04,665]: When Roosevelt signed or some kind of approved this land lease program [01:11:09,285]: And during 1941 before December 7th before attack on Pearl Harbor the military output of the United States increased several times [01:11:18,065]: And they started to provide this military munition to first of all to the United Kingdom [01:11:22,345]: And only after that to other participants in this war [01:11:27,905]: So this is a very clear challenge [01:11:30,165]: It’s up to the European countries to decide [01:11:33,105]: By the way just if we go back not only for European countries not only for Second World War [01:11:40,045]: Just four years ago Ukraine whether Ukraine was wanted whether it wanted to participate in the war in Russia no [01:11:47,725]: Look at this it’s unbelievable [01:11:49,185]: They were spending on military purposes some kind of less than 2 of GDP [01:11:56,585]: Even they have this war in Donbass [01:11:59,305]: Even the kind of many Ukrainian military personnel have been killed there [01:12:03,185]: All arguments in the Ukrainian society for either Poroshenko government or Zelensky government let’s increase military expenditure [01:12:10,625]: It is absolutely unsustainable [01:12:12,965]: No [01:12:14,465]: And Poroshenko and Zelensky said no no we are for peace [01:12:17,125]: And Zelensky won his presidential election with the slogan I will bring peace [01:12:23,465]: Exactly like Mr Chamberlain coming from Munich [01:12:26,145]: So I’m not going to fight [01:12:28,025]: So just I’m going to have peace [01:12:29,745]: Because what is necessary [01:12:31,365]: Just to stop fighting stop shooting [01:12:34,185]: It was his words [01:12:35,965]: What is the level of military expenditures right now in Ukraine [01:12:39,925]: More than 32 of GDP [01:12:43,985]: Because there is no way to survive [01:12:46,065]: But to spend on security on defense [01:12:50,645]: So same challenge is in front of European countries [01:12:55,105]: Now Poles spend maybe 4 3 [01:12:59,785]: Lithuanians are promising to increase up to 6 of GDP [01:13:03,465]: But it’s incomparable with level of military expenditures during the Cold War [01:13:09,125]: For those four countries of Europe or the United States [01:13:12,305]: This is a challenge [01:13:13,445]: It’s a kind of choice [01:13:14,285]: Either you will be subjugated and you will surrender [01:13:17,525]: And that is why another Gulag will be built on territory of your countries [01:13:21,785]: And your people will be conscripted and killed in your imperial wars [01:13:26,585]: Or other people who do not like to be there [01:13:29,205]: Just will be put in Gulag or exterminated [01:13:32,465]: As all political elite of Baltic countries [01:13:35,325]: Or Polish elite [01:13:36,885]: Or elite in the West of Ukraine [01:13:39,745]: Or to fight [01:13:40,945]: There is no other way [01:13:42,765]: Well Andrei [01:13:44,085]: It’s very serious things you’re saying [01:13:47,445]: I think people will be scared but also confused [01:13:52,505]: And it’s very early days in the Trump administration [01:13:55,085]: I will say very sincerely that I hope you’re wrong [01:13:57,805]: About everything you’re saying [01:14:00,445]: But sadly I’m afraid we’re gonna just have to wait and see [01:14:04,145]: You know I completely understand your point [01:14:08,265]: So in year 2008 when there was a Russian Georgian war [01:14:11,845]: When Putin put his troops against Georgia [01:14:15,205]: And occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia [01:14:19,045]: Georgian regions [01:14:20,225]: So Mr Saakashvili said the next will be Crimea [01:14:24,585]: I was thinking about that and I said yes [01:14:26,305]: The next will be Crimea [01:14:27,605]: And from year 2008 to year 2014 [01:14:31,285]: I myself as well as Saakashvili I know on record repeated several times [01:14:35,665]: Next will be Crimea [01:14:36,665]: I traveled to Ukraine [01:14:38,185]: I was talking to them [01:14:39,385]: Just okay next will be Crimea [01:14:41,285]: People were laughing at me [01:14:42,165]: Just come on [01:14:44,505]: This guy is absolutely insane [01:14:46,425]: He’s completely crazy [01:14:48,005]: Putin is our best friend [01:14:49,745]: Russia is our historical friend for centuries [01:14:53,045]: That cannot happen [01:14:54,085]: And this person is trying to solve some kind of his personal problems with Mr Putin and so on [01:14:58,985]: In January year 2014 during Maidan [01:15:02,425]: I happened to be in Kiev [01:15:03,845]: And I was on the TV show with 12 of the best Ukrainian experts [01:15:09,445]: And I told them in January 2014 I said okay just watch out [01:15:16,285]: During this Maidan Putin will go for Crimea [01:15:20,125]: All 12 people Ukrainians were just laughing [01:15:23,565]: This person is crazy [01:15:26,405]: On February 20th one month after our conversation show in Kiev [01:15:31,665]: Putin started operation for occupation and annexation of Crimea [01:15:35,965]: After that in April [01:15:39,265]: Even yes in April [01:15:41,125]: It’s just early April [01:15:42,285]: It was April 1st or April 2nd [01:15:44,845]: Just you can go to my life journal [01:15:46,425]: You’ll find this statement [01:15:48,405]: In the night of April 6th Putin will start operation against Donbass [01:15:54,585]: Why [01:15:55,225]: Because I read what they have written in their website [01:16:04,345]: And people are laughing [01:16:06,505]: From the night of April 6th [01:16:10,585]: Strelkov Gerkin Strelkov started this operation for occupation of Slavyansk [01:16:14,945]: And this so called Donbass war [01:16:17,665]: After that in August 2014 [01:16:20,125]: I said just okay [01:16:22,465]: If Ukrainians would not undertake necessary measures immediately [01:16:26,585]: Will take their people from Ilovaisk [01:16:29,005]: They will be stabbed in the back by Russian regular forces [01:16:35,845]: Ukrainians did not do [01:16:36,945]: And after that Russian forces crossed the border [01:16:40,085]: Encircled Ukrainian forces [01:16:42,285]: And killed more than 600 people over there [01:16:45,625]: So after that for 8 years [01:16:49,245]: From year 2014 to year 2022 [01:16:51,845]: I was talking [01:16:52,405]: There will be next operation [01:16:54,165]: Full scale operation against Ukraine [01:16:56,745]: With a purpose to get Kiev [01:17:01,445]: Because the dream of Putin is not Crimea [01:17:04,965]: Is not Kherson [01:17:06,125]: Not Donbass [01:17:07,325]: Not these 5 regions [01:17:08,485]: Kiev [01:17:08,805]: It was his dream [01:17:11,905]: That he was telling [01:17:14,025]: Back in year 2003 year 2004 [01:17:17,265]: That the might of Russian cities [01:17:20,305]: Must be under his control [01:17:22,485]: Nobody believed in it [01:17:23,725]: It was impossible to believe in it [01:17:25,905]: And after that we have February 24th [01:17:28,885]: February 24th 22 [01:17:31,485]: Once again [01:17:32,405]: Golda Meir told us [01:17:36,625]: Along with survival from Nazi concentration camps [01:17:40,725]: If somebody tells you regularly [01:17:43,605]: To tell you regularly [01:17:44,885]: That he is going to kill you [01:17:47,305]: Trust that person [01:17:49,725]: Be serious [01:17:51,245]: Do not ignore [01:17:52,645]: Putin is saying [01:17:54,605]: For 25 years in a row [01:17:57,085]: That he is going to establish control over Europe [01:18:01,725]: It is up to you [01:18:03,705]: To trust him or not to trust [01:18:05,305]: I prefer to trust that person [01:18:07,405]: That he is serious about his intentions [01:18:12,605]: Andrei that’s us [01:18:14,145]: Thank you for coming on the show [01:18:15,565]: And giving us your perspective [01:18:17,325]: And the final question we always end with Andrei [01:18:19,705]: Is what’s the one thing we’re not talking about [01:18:21,425]: As a society that we really should be [01:18:24,785]: Sorry [01:18:25,205]: What’s the one thing we’re not talking about [01:18:27,885]: As a society that we really should be [01:18:29,745]: I laughed [01:18:31,465]: Because what you’ve just said [01:18:33,425]: Has just [01:18:34,545]: You know [01:18:34,985]: That’s the one thing that we need to be talking about [01:18:36,725]: But what’s the other thing [01:18:38,405]: Before Andrei answers the final question [01:18:40,125]: At the end of the interview [01:18:41,085]: Make sure you click the link in the description [01:18:43,285]: Go to our sub stack [01:18:44,105]: Where you’ll be able to see this [01:18:46,245]: Do you think Putin would be more or less likely [01:18:48,325]: To use nuclear weapons as he gets older [01:18:51,825]: Was there a time early in Putin’s presidency [01:18:54,565]: When he was sincerely open to closer ties with the West [01:18:58,305]: What role if any [01:18:59,545]: Does geography play in Russian politics [01:19:02,465]: I hope that you would continue what you’re doing [01:19:05,545]: Because once again [01:19:06,805]: You are a rare voice [01:19:08,885]: In the English speaking world [01:19:10,765]: That at least ready to listen [01:19:14,445]: To what became unusual [01:19:18,365]: And that not many others are talking about [01:19:22,285]: And I wish you that would continue such an approach [01:19:25,565]: And talking by yourself [01:19:27,965]: And giving an opportunity to other people [01:19:30,045]: Who are ready to talk about [01:19:32,385]: To talk about [01:19:34,305]: Which things [01:19:35,165]: Which sounds like impossible [01:19:37,845]: But all of a sudden [01:19:40,245]: Becoming possible [01:19:41,985]: Thank you very much [01:19:43,125]: Make sure to follow us over to sub stack [01:19:44,945]: Where you get to ask Andrei your questions [01:19:49,285]: What do you think [01:19:50,985]: Is the likelihood of China invading Taiwan [01:19:53,265]: China trying to take it in some wayTranscribe your media with TRNSCRB.
Transcribe multiple languages, effortlessly. Chat with your projects. Enhance your workflow.